The Premier League got Friday night; now the continent answers. La Liga opens this weekend with the closest projected title race in Europe, Serie A follows a day later with the season's most argued-about projection, and between them they serve up a dozen opening fixtures across four days. As ever the picks below come off the Statz Acca Sheet, which prices every match-result and goals market on the slate against the model - three bets in Spain, three in Italy, and a cross-league double to finish. All odds bet365, at the time of writing.
Betis open Spain's season at the Benito VillamarÃn, and our La Liga preview has them fifth in the projected table, in the Europa League place, three spots and three points ahead of a Sociedad side the model sees as part of the chasing pack rather than ahead of it. Betis also closed last season the better of the two, with three wins in their last five, and a Friday-night home crowd for the country's curtain-raiser is not a small thing.
The bet: Betis to win at 2.10 - full match stats here.
This is a fixture between two grand old names heading in opposite directions. Athletic are projected sixth and European again; Sevilla are the model's bleakest big-club read in Spain - eleventh in the projection, with a relegation chance nearly three times their top-four chance. San Mamés on opening day is one of football's great home advantages, and at 1.73 the price still respects Sevilla's name more than their numbers.
The bet: Athletic Club to win at 1.73 - full match stats here.
The pick of Spain's opening weekend as a match, and the pick of its prices too. The model makes Atlético winners in 51.4% of simulations - a shade over even money in probability terms, at almost 2/1 on the book. Villarreal are no pushover - the projection hands them fourth and the last Champions League spot - but Diego Simeone's side at home, first game of a season they need to start fast, is exactly where their projected 65-point campaign begins.
The bet: Atlético Madrid to win at 1.91 - full match stats here.
No club in Italy carries more intrigue into the season than Como. Cesc FÃ bregas took them into the Champions League for the first time in the club's history on the final weekend of last season, Nico Paz stayed, and our Serie A preview now projects them third - above Napoli, above Milan. They finished last season with four wins and a draw in their last five, and the opening fixture is Udinese at home. Teams this good, at this price, on opening day, are the column's bread and butter.
The bet: Como to win at 1.83 - full match stats here.
Not every opening-day bet needs a winner. Parma against Cagliari is a meeting of two sides the model expects to spend the season grinding out low-scoring survival football, and its strongest single call anywhere on this weekend's European slate is here: under 2.5 goals at 67.9%. Two cautious teams, first game, August legs, nothing given away - the classic season-opener.
The bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.53 - full match stats here.
The value swing of the weekend. Venezia came up from Serie B in strong form and are the promoted side our projection actually backs to survive; Lecce, an established top-flight club, prop up the entire projected table. The market still prices this like a meeting of equals - promoted club deference dies hard - which is precisely why better than 6/5 about the home side appeals. Venezia arrive with four wins in their last five; Lecce closed last season losing two of theirs.
The bet: Venezia to win at 2.25 - full match stats here.
The double takes the two strongest calls from each side of the ledger. Atlético at home to open a season Simeone cannot afford to start slowly, and Como at home as the projection's favourite new force in Italy - both sides the model rates above their price, both in front of their own crowds. Paired up, Atlético Madrid and Como both to win pays just about 5/2 with bet365 at the time of writing.
What are the best La Liga bets this weekend? From the Statz model's opening-round prices: Betis to beat Real Sociedad at 2.10 on Friday night, Athletic Club to beat Sevilla at 1.73, and Atlético Madrid to beat Villarreal at 1.91, all at the time of writing.
What are the best Serie A bets this weekend? Como to beat Udinese at 1.83, under 2.5 goals in Parma v Cagliari at 1.53 - the model's strongest call on the whole European slate - and Venezia to beat Lecce at 2.25.
How are these picks chosen? Every selection starts on the Statz Acca Sheet, which prices match-result and goals markets against the model's projections for every fixture. The column backs the strongest calls at playable prices, with team news and each side's situation weighed alongside the numbers.