The Premier League can wait a week — the real football starts on Saturday. All 72 EFL clubs are in action this weekend, and I have been through the Statz Acca Cheat Sheet — the model's projected win chances, priced against the bookmakers, for every fixture in the country — to pull out the bets worth an interest across the Championship, League One and League Two.
Eight selections follow, plus a cross-divisional double to finish. All prices are bet365, correct at the time of writing, and every number quoted comes from the Statz model — you can see the full sheet, filters and all, here.
Norwich were the nearly-men of the Statz season simulation — our Championship preview projected them seventh, one point outside the playoffs, which is exactly the sort of team that should be winning its home openers. They arrive in form too, with three wins in their last five, and the model makes them clear favourites at Carrow Road against a West Brom side it projects for mid-table.
The bet: Norwich to win at 1.91 — full match stats here.
Southampton are the model's third-placed team in the season projection and its pick as the highest scorers outside the top two — and it likes them on the road at Vicarage Road, where they arrive unbeaten in five. Away wins at better than evens for a side projected 20 places above their host do not come along every weekend.
The bet: Southampton to win at 2.05 — full match stats here.
Middlesbrough against newly promoted Lincoln is the strongest single call on the entire Championship coupon — the model gives Boro 65.6%, its highest win figure in the division this weekend. At 1.33 the win is too short to tip on its own, but the model also leans over 2.5 goals in this one, and that doubles the price.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough v Lincoln at 1.67 — full match stats here.
Saturday lunchtime at Meadow Lane is the tie of the round: Leicester, a decade on from winning the Premier League, begin life in the third tier against a Notts County side fresh from winning the League Two playoff final. Leicester have been widely reported as the heaviest pre-season favourite this division has seen in at least a decade, and the model agrees with the direction of travel — it makes them winners here at 51.1%, its top League One away call of the weekend. County's playoff-final momentum makes the price; Leicester's squad should make the difference.
The bet: Leicester to win at 1.96 — full match stats here.
Huddersfield are quietly assembling the sort of squad that wins this league. Martin Drury's summer rebuild has been measured rather than flashy — Ashley Fletcher arriving on a free from Blackpool, Dutch recruits Ilias Bronkhorst and Derensili Sanches Fernandes, Matty Young on loan from Sunderland, and reportedly the sought-after Archie Collins to finish a midfield that looks among the division's best. The model's 59.1% here is the strongest home call in League One this weekend, against a Wimbledon side it fancies to struggle.
The bet: Huddersfield to win at 1.57 — full match stats here.
Nobody in League One comes into the weekend in better form than Plymouth — four wins and a draw from their last five — and the model expects Home Park to see goals: it rates both teams to score at 65.7% here, its strongest goals call in the division. Stockport travel well enough to get one; Argyle's form says they get more.
The bet: Both teams to score at 1.62 — full match stats here.
Grimsby at home to relegated Exeter is the model's standout in the fourth tier — 52.7%, the only League Two side it makes better than a coin-flip this weekend. Sides coming down into this division with disrupted summers have a long history of slow starts, and Blundell Park on opening day is a hard place to begin the rebuild.
The bet: Grimsby to win at 1.76 — full match stats here.
York return to the EFL as National League champions, promoted in dramatic fashion on the final day, and they bring the best recent form on the League Two coupon — three wins in their last five with momentum and a full house behind them. The model rates the home win well above the 2.15 on offer against a Bristol Rovers side still finding its shape.
The bet: York to win at 2.15 — full match stats here.
The signature bet each week pairs the model's two strongest calls across the divisions. This weekend that is Huddersfield (59.1%, the top League One number) and Grimsby (52.7%, the top League Two number) — two home wins on opening day, combined at around 7/4 with bet365 at the time of writing.
Build it yourself, or add legs from the full sheet, on the Statz Acca Cheat Sheet — every projection above comes straight from it, updated as prices move. For the season-long picture behind these leagues, start with our Championship season preview.
What are the best EFL bets this weekend? Seb's eight picks for the opening weekend: Norwich, Southampton and Middlesbrough-Lincoln over 2.5 goals in the Championship; Leicester, Huddersfield and Plymouth-Stockport both teams to score in League One; Grimsby and York in League Two.
What is the EFL weekend double? Huddersfield and Grimsby both to win — the Statz model's strongest League One and League Two calls, paying around 7/4 with bet365 at the time of writing.
Where do the Statz predictions come from? The Statz model projects a win chance for every EFL fixture and prices it against the bookmakers on the Acca Cheat Sheet, which updates continuously as odds move.