Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 19 October 2026, after the last game
Villarreal have the biggest shortfall in the La Liga: 9 points from chances worth 16.8 xPts, a gap of 7.8. At the other end, Real Betis have taken 19 points from an xPts figure of 12.4, 6.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 5 | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +14 | 6.2 | +7.8 | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6 |
| 2 | FC Barcelona | 4 | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +13 | 11.6 | +1.4 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 4 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 3.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 5 | Athletic Club | 4 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 6 | Espanyol | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 5 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 5 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +3 | 0.1 | +2.9 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Getafe | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | +2 | -0.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +5 | -1.1 | +6.1 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | +3 | -1.9 | +4.9 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 13 | Valencia | 5 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -7 | -3.1 | -3.9 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 4 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 16 | Elche | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 1 | 5.3 | -4.3 |
| 17 | Málaga | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | -5 | -3.6 | -1.4 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
| 19 | Levante | 3 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 20 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 22 | 15.2 | +6.8 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +17 | 10.7 | +6.3 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Villarreal | 5 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | +0 | 4.8 | -4.8 | 5 | 9.2 | -4.2 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 4 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 5 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Coruña | 4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 |
| 9 | Elche | 5 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Espanyol | 4 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 7.2 | +7.8 | -9 | -1.5 | -7.5 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 4 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | +1 | -3.3 | +4.3 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
| 14 | Valencia | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 16 | Levante | 5 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -5 | -5.6 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 17 | Athletic Club | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 18 | Racing Santander | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | -14 | -10.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Málaga | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 20 | Getafe | 4 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -8 | -5.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
| 2 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 22 | 17.2 | +4.8 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 5 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 |
| 4 | Athletic Club | 5 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 | +5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 5 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | +2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Coruña | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | -2 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 5 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 1.6 | +5.4 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +6 | 1.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 9 | Espanyol | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 5 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Valencia | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -4 | -1.4 | -2.6 | 1 | 6.0 | -5.0 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | -7 | -1.8 | -5.2 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Elche | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 5 | 8.2 | -3.2 | +1 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 14 | 6.7 | +7.3 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 | +3 | -3.7 | +6.7 | 12 | 4.7 | +7.3 |
| 17 | Getafe | 5 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -3.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 18 | Málaga | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | -6 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 |
| 19 | Levante | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -5.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Racing Santander | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 17 | 16.4 | +0.6 | -11 | -11.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
FC Barcelona are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 39 goals from chances worth 30.3 xG, a gap of 8.7. Real Sociedad are next on 5.6.
Villarreal are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 19.0 xG, a shortfall of 6.0. Osasuna are next on 3.8.
Real Betis are the luckiest side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 19 points from performances worth 12.4 xPts, 6.6 more than their chances deserved. Real Sociedad are next on 6.1.
Villarreal are the unluckiest side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 9 points from performances worth 16.8 xPts, 7.8 short of what they deserved. Espanyol are next on 5.4.
FC Barcelona would also be top of La Liga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 22.0 xPts from 30.3 xG created and 8.0 conceded across nine matches. Real Madrid are next on 17.6.
FC Barcelona have created the most xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 30.3 from nine matches, 3.4 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Real Madrid are next on 19.7.
Getafe have created the least xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 7.7 from nine matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Celta de Vigo are next on 8.2.
Racing Santander have conceded the most xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 21.1 from nine matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Málaga are next on 16.3.
FC Barcelona have conceded the least xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 8.0 from nine matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Athletic Club are next on 8.9.
La Liga teams have averaged 1.46 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 88 matches played, and have scored 1.53 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026.
La Liga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.56 a game against 1.36 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.41 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 9 | 39 | 30.3 | +8.7 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | +30 | 22.3 | +7.7 | 27 | 22.0 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 9 | 23 | 19.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | +14 | 9.1 | +4.9 | 21 | 17.6 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 9 | 13 | 19.0 | -6.0 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | +0 | 8.1 | -8.1 | 9 | 16.8 | -7.8 |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid | 9 | 19 | 15.5 | +3.5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | +11 | 6.4 | +4.6 | 22 | 16.4 | +5.6 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 9 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 13.4 | -5.4 |
| 6 | Osasuna | 9 | 10 | 13.8 | -3.8 | 18 | 12.6 | +5.4 | -8 | 1.2 | -9.2 | 11 | 12.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 9 | 13 | 11.6 | +1.4 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 9 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 | 14 | 15.2 | -1.2 | +2 | -0.3 | +2.3 | 19 | 12.4 | +6.6 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 9 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Sevilla | 9 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 | -2 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 14 | 11.8 | +2.2 |
| 11 | Athletic Club | 7 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 |
| 12 | Elche | 9 | 11 | 11.0 | +0.0 | 17 | 14.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -3.1 | -2.9 | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| 13 | Valencia | 9 | 6 | 9.0 | -3.0 | 15 | 13.1 | +1.9 | -9 | -4.1 | -4.9 | 6 | 10.4 | -4.4 |
| 14 | Celta de Vigo | 9 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | +3 | -2.9 | +5.9 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 17 | 11.4 | +5.6 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9 | +0 | -4.6 | +4.6 | 16 | 9.9 | +6.1 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 | 25 | 21.1 | +3.9 | -12 | -10.1 | -1.9 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 9 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | -6 | -5.9 | -0.1 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 19 | Málaga | 9 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | -12 | -7.6 | -4.4 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 20 | Levante | 8 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1 | -4 | -6.1 | +2.1 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |