Athletic Club have the biggest shortfall in the La Liga: 45 points from chances worth 60.2 xPts, a gap of 15.2. At the other end, FC Barcelona have taken 94 points from an xPts figure of 73.8, 20.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 19 | 57 | 41.4 | +15.6 | 10 | 16.6 | -6.6 | +47 | 24.8 | +22.2 | 57 | 41.1 | +15.9 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 19 | 45 | 42.1 | +2.9 | 16 | 19.7 | -3.7 | +29 | 22.4 | +6.6 | 49 | 39.3 | +9.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 19 | 39 | 36.7 | +2.3 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 | +22 | 19.5 | +2.5 | 46 | 37.7 | +8.3 |
| 4 | Athletic Club | 19 | 22 | 30.2 | -8.2 | 21 | 14.5 | +6.5 | +1 | 15.8 | -14.8 | 30 | 36.0 | -6.0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 19 | 48 | 37.6 | +10.4 | 19 | 23.3 | -4.3 | +29 | 14.4 | +14.6 | 46 | 34.4 | +11.6 |
| 6 | Osasuna | 19 | 31 | 31.6 | -0.6 | 24 | 19.6 | +4.4 | +7 | 12.0 | -5.0 | 32 | 33.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Valencia | 19 | 27 | 30.7 | -3.7 | 23 | 19.3 | +3.7 | +4 | 11.4 | -7.4 | 30 | 33.7 | -3.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 19 | 24 | 31.5 | -7.5 | 15 | 20.8 | -5.8 | +9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 31 | 33.2 | -2.2 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 19 | 34 | 32.9 | +1.1 | 19 | 22.5 | -3.5 | +15 | 10.4 | +4.6 | 36 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 37 | 31.3 | +5.7 | 31 | 22.0 | +9.0 | +6 | 9.2 | -3.2 | 29 | 32.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Mallorca | 19 | 31 | 31.3 | -0.3 | 21 | 23.5 | -2.5 | +10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 33 | 30.1 | +2.9 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 19 | 25 | 27.2 | -2.2 | 25 | 20.9 | +4.1 | +0 | 6.3 | -6.3 | 27 | 29.4 | -2.4 |
| 13 | Elche | 19 | 30 | 30.0 | +0.0 | 19 | 28.8 | -9.8 | +11 | 1.2 | +9.8 | 35 | 29.2 | +5.8 |
| 14 | Levante | 19 | 26 | 30.1 | -4.1 | 28 | 26.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 3.1 | -5.1 | 26 | 27.9 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 19 | 24 | 23.4 | +0.6 | 25 | 21.1 | +3.9 | -1 | 2.2 | -3.2 | 25 | 27.4 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo | 19 | 29 | 25.2 | +3.8 | 28 | 24.4 | +3.6 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 23 | 26.8 | -3.8 |
| 17 | Espanyol | 19 | 21 | 27.3 | -6.3 | 24 | 26.7 | -2.7 | -3 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 26 | 26.5 | -0.5 |
| 18 | Getafe | 19 | 18 | 14.5 | +3.5 | 16 | 15.5 | +0.5 | +2 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 24.1 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Girona | 19 | 21 | 23.4 | -2.4 | 27 | 29.0 | -2.0 | -6 | -5.6 | -0.4 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 19 | 9 | 16.9 | -7.9 | 18 | 28.5 | -10.5 | -9 | -11.6 | +2.6 | 19 | 19.7 | -0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 19 | 38 | 42.0 | -4.0 | 26 | 27.9 | -1.9 | +12 | 14.1 | -2.1 | 37 | 32.8 | +4.2 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 19 | 32 | 33.1 | -1.1 | 19 | 23.8 | -4.8 | +13 | 9.3 | +3.7 | 37 | 31.6 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 19 | 24 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 27 | 25.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 26 | 25.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | Deportivo Alavés | 19 | 19 | 23.5 | -4.5 | 31 | 26.9 | +4.1 | -12 | -3.4 | -8.6 | 16 | 24.3 | -8.3 |
| 5 | Athletic Club | 19 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 | 37 | 25.9 | +11.1 | -16 | -2.8 | -13.2 | 15 | 24.2 | -9.2 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 19 | 25 | 22.0 | +3.0 | 29 | 25.3 | +3.7 | -4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 24 | 24.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Valencia | 19 | 19 | 20.6 | -1.6 | 32 | 28.1 | +3.9 | -13 | -7.5 | -5.5 | 19 | 21.9 | -2.9 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 19 | 17 | 22.7 | -5.7 | 29 | 30.5 | -1.5 | -12 | -7.8 | -4.2 | 19 | 21.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | Celta de Vigo | 19 | 24 | 20.4 | +3.6 | 20 | 29.3 | -9.3 | +4 | -8.9 | +12.9 | 31 | 21.4 | +9.6 |
| 10 | Girona | 19 | 18 | 23.5 | -5.5 | 28 | 33.0 | -5.0 | -10 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 17 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
| 11 | Getafe | 19 | 14 | 16.4 | -2.4 | 22 | 24.2 | -2.2 | -8 | -7.8 | -0.2 | 24 | 20.9 | +3.1 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 22 | 21.2 | +0.8 | 30 | 32.9 | -2.9 | -8 | -11.7 | +3.7 | 17 | 20.5 | -3.5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 19 | 22 | 23.2 | -1.2 | 31 | 31.3 | -0.3 | -9 | -8.2 | -0.8 | 20 | 20.3 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid | 19 | 23 | 20.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 30.8 | -3.8 | -4 | -10.7 | +6.7 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 19 | 13 | 18.2 | -5.2 | 26 | 31.7 | -5.7 | -13 | -13.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 18.7 | -8.7 |
| 16 | Levante | 19 | 21 | 20.1 | +0.9 | 33 | 33.2 | -0.2 | -12 | -13.1 | +1.1 | 16 | 18.6 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Real Oviedo | 19 | 17 | 20.5 | -3.5 | 42 | 33.8 | +8.2 | -25 | -13.3 | -11.7 | 10 | 18.1 | -8.1 |
| 18 | Sevilla | 19 | 22 | 17.6 | +4.4 | 35 | 32.2 | +2.8 | -13 | -14.6 | +1.6 | 18 | 17.1 | +0.9 |
| 19 | Elche | 19 | 19 | 13.6 | +5.4 | 38 | 31.8 | +6.2 | -19 | -18.2 | -0.8 | 8 | 14.9 | -6.9 |
| 20 | Mallorca | 19 | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 | 36 | 37.0 | -1.0 | -20 | -21.7 | +1.7 | 9 | 12.8 | -3.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levante | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 | -1 | 3.9 | -4.9 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Girona | 5 | 3 | 8.2 | -5.2 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | -2 | 2.5 | -4.5 | 3 | 8.4 | -5.4 |
| 3 | Athletic Club | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 4.3 | +5.7 | -3 | 2.8 | -5.8 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Getafe | 5 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 1.4 | +3.6 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 5 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | +5 | 1.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Valencia | 5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| 10 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | +5 | 0.0 | +5.0 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 |
| 13 | Mallorca | 5 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Elche | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 6.5 | -6.5 |
| 16 | Real Betis | 5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 |
| 17 | Espanyol | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -4.1 | +2.1 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 19 | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | +3 | -5.4 | +8.4 | 10 | 4.3 | +5.7 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 5 | 0 | 4.5 | -4.5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -9 | -4.8 | -4.2 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
FC Barcelona overperformed their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2025/2026, with 95 goals from chances worth 83.4 xG, a gap of 11.6. Villarreal were next on 10.4.
Rayo Vallecano underperformed their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2025/2026, with 41 goals from chances worth 54.2 xG, a shortfall of 13.2. Real Oviedo were next on 11.4.
FC Barcelona were the luckiest side in La Liga in 2025/2026, with 94 points from performances worth 73.8 xPts, 20.2 more than their chances deserved. Real Madrid were next on 15.0.
Athletic Club were the unluckiest side in La Liga in 2025/2026, with 45 points from performances worth 60.2 xPts, 15.2 short of what they deserved. Deportivo Alavés were next on 10.7.
FC Barcelona were also top of La Liga in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 73.8 xPts from 83.4 xG created and 44.5 conceded across 38 matches. Real Madrid were next on 71.0.
FC Barcelona created the most xG in La Liga in 2025/2026, 83.4 from 38 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Real Madrid were next on 75.2.
Getafe created the least xG in La Liga in 2025/2026, 30.9 from 38 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Real Oviedo were next on 37.4.
Real Oviedo conceded the most xG in La Liga in 2025/2026, 62.3 from 38 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Girona were next on 61.9.
Getafe conceded the least xG in La Liga in 2025/2026, 39.7 from 38 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Athletic Club were next on 40.3.
La Liga teams averaged 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.35 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.32 xG a game in 2024/2025.
La Liga teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.57 a game against 1.16 away, a home advantage of +0.41, against +0.31 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 38 | 95 | 83.4 | +11.6 | 36 | 44.5 | -8.5 | +59 | 38.9 | +20.1 | 94 | 73.8 | +20.2 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 77 | 75.2 | +1.8 | 35 | 43.5 | -8.5 | +42 | 31.7 | +10.3 | 86 | 71.0 | +15.0 |
| 3 | Athletic Club | 38 | 43 | 53.3 | -10.3 | 58 | 40.3 | +17.7 | -15 | 13.0 | -28.0 | 45 | 60.2 | -15.2 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 61.6 | +10.4 | 46 | 49.1 | -3.1 | +26 | 12.4 | +13.6 | 72 | 59.9 | +12.1 |
| 5 | Atlético Madrid | 38 | 62 | 56.8 | +5.2 | 44 | 48.0 | -4.0 | +18 | 8.7 | +9.3 | 69 | 57.9 | +11.1 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 38 | 59 | 55.0 | +4.0 | 48 | 47.8 | +0.2 | +11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | 60 | 57.0 | +3.0 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 46 | 51.4 | -5.4 | 55 | 47.5 | +7.5 | -9 | 3.9 | -12.9 | 49 | 55.7 | -6.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 41 | 54.2 | -13.2 | 44 | 51.3 | -7.3 | -3 | 2.9 | -5.9 | 50 | 54.7 | -4.7 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 38 | 44 | 50.6 | -6.6 | 56 | 47.8 | +8.2 | -12 | 2.9 | -14.9 | 43 | 53.7 | -10.7 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 59 | 52.5 | +6.5 | 61 | 55.0 | +6.0 | -2 | -2.5 | +0.5 | 46 | 52.6 | -6.6 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 38 | 44 | 49.8 | -5.8 | 50 | 51.4 | -1.4 | -6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 42 | 52.5 | -10.5 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo | 38 | 53 | 45.6 | +7.4 | 48 | 53.7 | -5.7 | +5 | -8.0 | +13.0 | 54 | 48.3 | +5.7 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 38 | 43 | 50.5 | -7.5 | 55 | 58.0 | -3.0 | -12 | -7.5 | -4.5 | 46 | 46.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Levante | 38 | 47 | 50.2 | -3.2 | 61 | 60.1 | +0.9 | -14 | -9.9 | -4.1 | 42 | 46.5 | -4.5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 38 | 32 | 30.9 | +1.1 | 38 | 39.7 | -1.7 | -6 | -8.8 | +2.8 | 51 | 45.0 | +6.0 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 46 | 41.0 | +5.0 | 60 | 53.3 | +6.7 | -14 | -12.4 | -1.6 | 43 | 44.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Girona | 38 | 39 | 46.9 | -7.9 | 55 | 61.9 | -6.9 | -16 | -15.0 | -1.0 | 41 | 44.2 | -3.2 |
| 18 | Elche | 38 | 49 | 43.5 | +5.5 | 57 | 60.5 | -3.5 | -8 | -17.0 | +9.0 | 43 | 44.1 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Mallorca | 38 | 47 | 46.6 | +0.4 | 57 | 60.5 | -3.5 | -10 | -13.9 | +3.9 | 42 | 42.9 | -0.9 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 26 | 37.4 | -11.4 | 60 | 62.3 | -2.3 | -34 | -24.9 | -9.1 | 29 | 37.7 | -8.7 |