Real Valladolid have the biggest shortfall in the La Liga: 16 points from chances worth 34.2 xPts, a gap of 18.2. At the other end, Real Madrid have taken 84 points from an xPts figure of 70.2, 13.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 19 | 52 | 47.2 | +4.8 | 20 | 14.9 | +5.1 | +32 | 32.3 | -0.3 | 43 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 19 | 45 | 47.4 | -2.4 | 19 | 18.1 | +0.9 | +26 | 29.3 | -3.3 | 49 | 39.9 | +9.1 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 19 | 42 | 36.3 | +5.7 | 15 | 16.0 | -1.0 | +27 | 20.4 | +6.6 | 46 | 37.5 | +8.5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 19 | 32 | 34.4 | -2.4 | 21 | 17.5 | +3.5 | +11 | 16.9 | -5.9 | 34 | 36.3 | -2.3 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 18 | 42 | 36.3 | +5.7 | 26 | 23.7 | +2.3 | +16 | 12.6 | +3.4 | 33 | 32.5 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 19 | 32 | 30.4 | +1.6 | 13 | 18.9 | -5.9 | +19 | 11.5 | +7.5 | 39 | 31.7 | +7.3 |
| 7 | Celta de Vigo | 19 | 32 | 27.0 | +5.0 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 | +11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | 36 | 31.0 | +5.0 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 20 | 24.9 | -4.9 | 20 | 17.9 | +2.1 | +0 | 7.0 | -7.0 | 27 | 30.6 | -3.6 |
| 9 | Valencia | 19 | 26 | 24.1 | +1.9 | 20 | 19.1 | +0.9 | +6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 31 | 30.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 19 | 24 | 25.8 | -1.8 | 26 | 21.2 | +4.8 | -2 | 4.6 | -6.6 | 26 | 29.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 19 | 14 | 24.0 | -10.0 | 17 | 21.0 | -4.0 | -3 | 3.0 | -6.0 | 24 | 28.1 | -4.1 |
| 12 | Getafe | 19 | 15 | 21.7 | -6.7 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 | -4 | 2.9 | -6.9 | 19 | 27.9 | -8.9 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 19 | 33 | 30.2 | +2.8 | 23 | 31.0 | -8.0 | +10 | -0.9 | +10.9 | 36 | 27.4 | +8.6 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 19 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | 23 | 21.9 | +1.1 | -6 | -0.2 | -5.8 | 24 | 25.9 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Girona | 18 | 24 | 24.0 | +0.0 | 30 | 24.6 | +5.4 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 21 | 24.9 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 19 | 20 | 21.9 | -1.9 | 21 | 25.7 | -4.7 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 27 | 24.4 | +2.6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas | 19 | 21 | 21.9 | -0.9 | 29 | 28.4 | +0.6 | -8 | -6.5 | -1.5 | 17 | 22.5 | -5.5 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 18 | 22 | 17.7 | +4.3 | 19 | 22.2 | -3.2 | +3 | -4.5 | +7.5 | 29 | 21.5 | +7.5 |
| 19 | Leganés | 19 | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 | 27 | 28.8 | -1.8 | -4 | -8.7 | +4.7 | 25 | 21.4 | +3.6 |
| 20 | Real Valladolid | 19 | 11 | 19.8 | -8.8 | 32 | 30.1 | +1.9 | -21 | -10.3 | -10.7 | 13 | 20.2 | -7.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 19 | 50 | 37.4 | +12.6 | 19 | 22.0 | -3.0 | +31 | 15.4 | +15.6 | 45 | 34.8 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Villarreal | 19 | 28 | 30.7 | -2.7 | 24 | 22.6 | +1.4 | +4 | 8.2 | -4.2 | 36 | 31.2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 19 | 33 | 30.2 | +2.8 | 19 | 24.4 | -5.4 | +14 | 5.8 | +8.2 | 35 | 30.3 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Athletic Club | 19 | 22 | 24.7 | -2.7 | 16 | 18.5 | -2.5 | +6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 31 | 30.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Atlético Madrid | 19 | 26 | 24.3 | +1.7 | 15 | 19.9 | -4.9 | +11 | 4.5 | +6.5 | 30 | 27.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Celta de Vigo | 19 | 27 | 26.3 | +0.7 | 36 | 24.6 | +11.4 | -9 | 1.6 | -10.6 | 19 | 27.4 | -8.4 |
| 7 | Sevilla | 19 | 25 | 21.2 | +3.8 | 32 | 23.7 | +8.3 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 17 | 24.6 | -7.6 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 19 | 25 | 24.8 | +0.2 | 29 | 29.8 | -0.8 | -4 | -5.0 | +1.0 | 26 | 23.6 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 19 | 24 | 23.3 | +0.7 | 31 | 27.6 | +3.4 | -7 | -4.3 | -2.7 | 18 | 22.9 | -4.9 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 15 | 19.1 | -4.1 | 26 | 26.1 | -0.1 | -11 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 19 | 21.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Mallorca | 19 | 15 | 18.3 | -3.3 | 23 | 28.4 | -5.4 | -8 | -10.0 | +2.0 | 21 | 21.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 19 | 15 | 20.7 | -5.7 | 29 | 29.3 | -0.3 | -14 | -8.5 | -5.5 | 16 | 20.7 | -4.7 |
| 13 | Girona | 19 | 17 | 17.9 | -0.9 | 30 | 29.2 | +0.8 | -13 | -11.3 | -1.7 | 17 | 20.2 | -3.2 |
| 14 | Getafe | 19 | 19 | 17.7 | +1.3 | 20 | 27.1 | -7.1 | -1 | -9.5 | +8.5 | 23 | 20.0 | +3.0 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 18 | 16 | 18.3 | -2.3 | 18 | 27.1 | -9.1 | -2 | -8.9 | +6.9 | 25 | 19.0 | +6.0 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 19 | 17 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 31 | 32.5 | -1.5 | -14 | -11.0 | -3.0 | 12 | 17.7 | -5.7 |
| 17 | Valencia | 18 | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7 | 33 | 31.5 | +1.5 | -16 | -15.2 | -0.8 | 14 | 16.7 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Leganés | 19 | 16 | 16.7 | -0.7 | 29 | 36.1 | -7.1 | -13 | -19.4 | +6.4 | 15 | 15.5 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Real Valladolid | 18 | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 | 55 | 38.6 | +16.4 | -40 | -22.8 | -17.2 | 3 | 14.0 | -11.0 |
| 20 | Las Palmas | 19 | 19 | 14.3 | +4.7 | 32 | 38.1 | -6.1 | -13 | -23.7 | +10.7 | 15 | 12.3 | +2.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 5 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 3 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 4.9 | +6.1 | -4 | 3.5 | -7.5 | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 5 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +9 | 2.7 | +6.3 | 15 | 8.6 | +6.4 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | -6 | 0.9 | -6.9 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 5 | 5 | 11.8 | -6.8 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | -4 | 5.8 | -9.8 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 |
| 9 | Leganés | 5 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 |
| 11 | Athletic Club | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 |
| 13 | Real Betis | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Valencia | 5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | +2 | -2.1 | +4.1 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 13.0 | -7.0 | +2 | -5.8 | +7.8 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 16 | Real Valladolid | 5 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | -7 | -2.2 | -4.8 | 0 | 5.4 | -5.4 |
| 17 | Getafe | 5 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Las Palmas | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | -6 | -2.1 | -3.9 | 0 | 5.1 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Girona | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | -4 | -4.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 20 | Mallorca | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 12.1 | -6.1 | -2 | -8.2 | +6.2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
FC Barcelona overperformed their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2024/2025, with 102 goals from chances worth 84.6 xG, a gap of 17.4. Atlético Madrid were next on 7.3.
Real Valladolid underperformed their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2024/2025, with 26 goals from chances worth 35.6 xG, a shortfall of 9.6. Deportivo Alavés were next on 9.3.
Real Madrid were the luckiest side in La Liga in 2024/2025, with 84 points from performances worth 70.2 xPts, 13.8 more than their chances deserved. Atlético Madrid were next on 10.8.
Real Valladolid were the unluckiest side in La Liga in 2024/2025, with 16 points from performances worth 34.2 xPts, 18.2 short of what they deserved. Sevilla were next on 9.5.
FC Barcelona were also top of La Liga in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 78.3 xPts from 84.6 xG created and 36.8 conceded across 38 matches. Real Madrid were next on 70.2.
FC Barcelona created the most xG in La Liga in 2024/2025, 84.6 from 38 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Real Madrid were next on 77.6.
Real Valladolid created the least xG in La Liga in 2024/2025, 35.6 from 37 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Las Palmas were next on 36.2.
Real Valladolid conceded the most xG in La Liga in 2024/2025, 68.6 from 37 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Las Palmas were next on 66.5.
Atlético Madrid conceded the least xG in La Liga in 2024/2025, 35.8 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. FC Barcelona were next on 36.8.
La Liga teams averaged 1.32 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 377 matches played, and scored 1.31 goals a game from it.
La Liga teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.48 a game against 1.17 away, a home advantage of +0.31.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 38 | 102 | 84.6 | +17.4 | 39 | 36.8 | +2.2 | +63 | 47.8 | +15.2 | 88 | 78.3 | +9.7 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 78 | 77.6 | +0.4 | 38 | 42.5 | -4.5 | +40 | 35.1 | +4.9 | 84 | 70.2 | +13.8 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 38 | 68 | 60.7 | +7.3 | 30 | 35.8 | -5.8 | +38 | 24.9 | +13.1 | 76 | 65.2 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 37 | 70 | 67.1 | +2.9 | 50 | 46.3 | +3.7 | +20 | 20.8 | -0.8 | 69 | 63.7 | +5.3 |
| 5 | Athletic Club | 38 | 54 | 55.1 | -1.1 | 29 | 37.4 | -8.4 | +25 | 17.7 | +7.3 | 70 | 61.9 | +8.1 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 38 | 57 | 59.3 | -2.3 | 50 | 47.4 | +2.6 | +7 | 11.9 | -4.9 | 60 | 59.8 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Celta de Vigo | 38 | 59 | 53.2 | +5.8 | 57 | 44.3 | +12.7 | +2 | 8.9 | -6.9 | 55 | 58.3 | -3.3 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 35 | 44.0 | -9.0 | 46 | 44.0 | +2.0 | -11 | 0.0 | -11.0 | 46 | 52.2 | -6.2 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 38 | 38 | 47.3 | -9.3 | 48 | 48.6 | -0.6 | -10 | -1.3 | -8.7 | 42 | 51.0 | -9.0 |
| 10 | Sevilla | 38 | 42 | 42.9 | -0.9 | 55 | 45.6 | +9.4 | -13 | -2.7 | -10.3 | 41 | 50.5 | -9.5 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 40 | 44.1 | -4.1 | 44 | 48.4 | -4.4 | -4 | -4.3 | +0.3 | 51 | 48.2 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 38 | 48 | 50.9 | -2.9 | 52 | 60.3 | -8.3 | -4 | -9.4 | +5.4 | 52 | 48.1 | +3.9 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 34 | 39.4 | -5.4 | 39 | 45.9 | -6.9 | -5 | -6.5 | +1.5 | 42 | 47.9 | -5.9 |
| 14 | Valencia | 37 | 43 | 40.4 | +2.6 | 53 | 50.6 | +2.4 | -10 | -10.3 | +0.3 | 45 | 46.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 38 | 35 | 40.3 | -5.3 | 44 | 54.1 | -10.1 | -9 | -13.8 | +4.8 | 48 | 45.4 | +2.6 |
| 16 | Girona | 37 | 41 | 42.0 | -1.0 | 60 | 53.9 | +6.1 | -19 | -11.9 | -7.1 | 38 | 45.1 | -7.1 |
| 17 | Espanyol | 37 | 39 | 39.2 | -0.2 | 50 | 54.7 | -4.7 | -11 | -15.5 | +4.5 | 41 | 39.3 | +1.7 |
| 18 | Leganés | 38 | 39 | 36.8 | +2.2 | 56 | 64.9 | -8.9 | -17 | -28.1 | +11.1 | 40 | 36.8 | +3.2 |
| 19 | Las Palmas | 38 | 40 | 36.2 | +3.8 | 61 | 66.5 | -5.5 | -21 | -30.2 | +9.2 | 32 | 34.8 | -2.8 |
| 20 | Real Valladolid | 37 | 26 | 35.6 | -9.6 | 87 | 68.6 | +18.4 | -61 | -33.0 | -28.0 | 16 | 34.2 | -18.2 |