Round three of the EFL season and the coupon is starting to tell us things. The Statz acca sheet does the heavy lifting for this column every week - every match result, both-teams-to-score and goals line across the three divisions, priced against the model - and this weekend it likes home favourites with something to prove. Eight bets below, and a Weekend Double that pays around 9/5.
Boro put three past Doncaster in the cup in midweek without breaking stride, and their league form line - three wins in five - reads better than a side that was scrapping for the play-offs in spring has any right to expect this early. West Brom have been flat on the road. The model makes the home win a 54% chance, which at the price is the best result bet in the division this week. The bet: Middlesbrough to win at 1.71 - full match stats here.
West Ham's first Championship August in a generation has gone better than the doom-mongers predicted - three wins in five, and the model rates them at 51% to make it another away day to remember at Vicarage Road. Watford have been generous at the back to everyone who has pressed them. The bet: West Ham to win at 1.79 - full match stats here.
The goals game of the division. The model's strongest both-teams-to-score number on the entire Championship coupon lands here at 61%, two sides who have started the season allergic to clean sheets. The bet: Both teams to score at 1.57 - full match stats here.
Three wins from five for Wednesday, and Hillsborough against newly promoted opposition is exactly the fixture a side with their early-season swagger should be winning. The model has the home win at 59% - the strongest single in League One this weekend - and ranks it highly enough to anchor the Weekend Double below. The bet: Sheffield Wednesday to win at 1.79 - full match stats here.
Pick a market, any market: the model makes this the most watchable game in the division, with both teams to score at 63% and the overs number a shade higher still. Posh away days have been chaos for years and Blackpool have won three of five scoring freely. Take the goals over the winner. The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 - full match stats here.
Four wins in five for Barnet, and the model makes Saturday lunchtime at The Hive a 58% home win - the top number on the League Two coupon. Sides that come up with momentum tend to keep swinging until somebody stops them, and Cheltenham on the road do not look like the somebody. The bet: Barnet to win at 1.57 - full match stats here.
Another of the promoted sides refusing to read the script. York have lost just once in five and the model puts them at 57% here against an Exeter side finding the fourth tier less forgiving than advertised. The bet: York to win at 1.62 - full match stats here.
Salford's winless start has come with goals at both ends and Shrewsbury's games have been the same story. The model's top goals number in the division lives here at 61%. The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 - full match stats here.
The two strongest numbers on the coupon, one from each of the lower divisions: Sheffield Wednesday to beat Bromley and Barnet to beat Cheltenham. The model makes them 59% and 58% respectively, and the double pays around 9/5 (2.81) with bet365 at the time of writing. One from Hillsborough, one from The Hive, both done by tea-time on Saturday.
Every selection starts on the Statz acca sheet, which prices every match result, both-teams-to-score and goals line across the Championship, League One and League Two against the Statz projections model. The column takes the strongest numbers, checks them against form, and keeps singles in the 1.50 to 2.60 band.
The two strongest model calls across the divisions, combined into one two-leg accumulator with the combined price quoted at the time of writing. It settles like any double: both legs must win.
Yes - every column's bets settle publicly the following week, winners and losers alike, and the season's running record is quoted whenever it is claimed.