First, the reckoning. Opening day treated this column kindly: five of our eight bets landed - Middlesbrough's goals, Huddersfield, Plymouth's both-teams, Grimsby and York at a lovely 2.15 - and the Weekend Double of Huddersfield and Grimsby duly obliged at around 7/4. The losers deserve their mention too: Norwich and Southampton were both turned over, and Leicester's draw at Notts County reminded everyone why odds-against away favourites in League One need watching. On 1pt level stakes across the eight bets and the double, the column banked +2.5pts in week one - a running total we will keep quoting, profitable or not. On to round two.
As ever, everything below comes off the Statz Acca Sheet, which prices every match-result and goals market on the weekend's coupon against the model. Two bets per division this week, plus the double. All odds bet365, at the time of writing.
West Ham are the great overqualified beast of this division - our Championship preview projects them champions with 92 points and 101 goals - and at 1.33 the win holds no interest for a column that respects your stake. The goals price does: the model makes over 2.5 the strongest goals call on the Championship coupon at 61.3%, in a fixture where the league's heaviest projected attack meets a promoted Charlton side likely to have a go rather than park.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Charlton at 1.73 - full match stats here.
The early kickoff brings the coupon's best form line. Birmingham are unbeaten in five - four wins and a draw - carried straight through opening weekend, and the model makes them clear favourites at St Andrew's against a Bristol City side it sees as mid-table material. Home, in form, at a price still north of 7/10: that's the column's bread and butter.
The bet: Birmingham to win at 1.71 - full match stats here.
Nobody in the third tier arrives in better shape than Luton. Five straight wins, an opening day taken care of, and a club that has fallen from the Premier League to League One in successive seasons now looking every inch a side ready to climb straight back out. The model makes them the strongest playable price in the division this weekend, and Kenilworth Road on a Saturday lunchtime is no place to be a visitor finding your feet.
The bet: Luton to win at 1.57 - full match stats here.
The sheet's loudest number in League One is not a winner at all. Wycombe against Plymouth is priced tight in the match odds, but the model puts both teams to score at 66.3% - the top both-teams call anywhere on this weekend's EFL coupon. Wycombe concede but create; Plymouth, beaten at home by Stockport last week, will not die wondering twice.
The bet: Both teams to score in Wycombe v Plymouth at 1.67 - full match stats here.
This column backed York against Bristol Rovers last week and collected at 2.15 - and now, with no shame at all, it swings behind Rovers at home. That is not fickleness, it is the fixture list: the model made York strong at home then, and makes Rovers an even-money-or-better home call now, the best win probability on the League Two coupon. Beaten sides in this division tend to respond in front of their own crowd.
The bet: Bristol Rovers to win at 1.61 - full match stats here.
The away pick of the weekend. Barnet have won four of their last five and the model rates them ahead of a Shrewsbury side it projects towards the wrong end of the table. Away wins at close to 9/5 for the team in form, against the team that isn't, is exactly the shape of bet this column exists to find.
The bet: Barnet to win at 1.86 - full match stats here.
The double pairs the two strongest calls across the divisions: Luton's five-game winning machine at home in League One, and Bristol Rovers as the top number on the League Two coupon. Together, Luton and Bristol Rovers both to win pays around 6/4 with bet365 at the time of writing. Last week's double landed; the column makes no promises about lightning striking twice, only that the numbers point the same way.
What are the best Championship bets this weekend? From the Statz model's coupon: over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Charlton at 1.73, and Birmingham to beat Bristol City at 1.71, both at the time of writing.
What are the best League One and League Two bets this weekend? Luton to beat Notts County at 1.57 and both teams to score in Wycombe v Plymouth at 1.67 in League One; Bristol Rovers to beat Newport at 1.61 and Barnet to win at Shrewsbury at 1.86 in League Two.
How did last week's EFL tips get on? Five of eight landed - Middlesbrough over 2.5, Huddersfield, both teams to score at Plymouth, Grimsby and York at 2.15 - and the Huddersfield-Grimsby double won at around 7/4. Norwich, Southampton and Leicester were the losers.