Seb's EFL Best Bets: Saints at Home, Goals at Bolton and a 10/7 Double

The reckoning first, and this one leaves a mark. The midweek card came back with three winners from eight. Sheffield United edged Bolton 3-2, and both teams found the net at Burnley and again at Exeter. Everything else went the way midweek football specialises in going. West Brom were held 1-1 by Charlton, Bradford lost at home to Cambridge, Grimsby were pegged back to 2-2 at Accrington, and Luton - picked precisely because nobody at Kenilworth Road could stop conceding - kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win over Stockport, taking the both-teams-to-score leg and the double down with it. That is 3.28pts gone inside 48 hours, the column's worst return yet.

Which turns the ledger red. On 1pt level stakes the column now stands at -1.57pts after four settled editions and 33 selections, a record of 18-15. You get that number every week in exactly the same font as the good ones.

On to Saturday, and there is no shortage of it: 35 EFL fixtures between Friday night and Sunday lunchtime, with all three divisions playing a near-full round. Everything below comes off the Statz Acca Sheet, which prices every match-result and goals market on the coupon against the model. Eight bets - three in the Championship, three in League One, two in League Two - plus a Weekend Double that pays around 10/7. All odds bet365, at the time of writing.

Championship best bets

Southampton v Bristol City (Saturday, 3pm UK)

The table has Southampton 13th, which is the least useful sentence anybody will write about them this week. A four-point deduction carried into this season - widely reported in May, when their appeal was dismissed - is doing that work. Look instead at the home record: three games at St Mary's, three wins, 11 goals scored and three conceded. Their 14 for the season is matched only by West Ham in the whole division, and they have not lost a league match in five.

Bristol City are no soft touch - three straight league wins, and seven goals from three away days - so the case against is a real one. The model has weighed it and still makes the hosts a 62% home win, the strongest result call on the entire Championship card.

The bet: Southampton to win at 1.62 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Middlesbrough v Norwich (Saturday, 3pm UK)

Middlesbrough have won both league games at the Riverside, scoring five and conceding two, and they arrive off a 1-0 win at QPR. Tuesday's 3-0 defeat at Crystal Palace was a cup tie against Premier League opposition and can be filed accordingly.

Norwich have won their last two, 3-1 at Sheffield United and 2-1 at home to Birmingham, but the travelling version is a different animal: one win from three on the road, and three goals scored across those three trips. The model makes Boro a 51% home win.

The bet: Middlesbrough to win at 1.79 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Bolton v Cardiff (Saturday, 12:30pm UK)

Two clubs in the bottom five, both in a state of some disrepair, and a goals market that has taken note. Bolton have lost four in a row and shipped 12 goals in six games, a total only Burnley have exceeded. Cardiff have not won any of their six and have drawn four, which sounds like a tight watch until you notice those six matches have produced 17 goals.

Put Bolton's 18 alongside Cardiff's 17 and you have two sides living at roughly three goals a game. The model wants the overs at 63%, the biggest goals number in the Championship this weekend.

The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Form across the division is ranked on the Championship power rankings, and the chance-quality picture behind these results is on the Championship xG table.

League One best bets

Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan (Saturday, 3pm UK)

Sheffield Wednesday top League One and have won three league games on the bounce, the middle one a 7-2 dismantling of Bromley at Hillsborough. Thirteen goals in five matches is as many as anyone in the division has managed.

Wigan are 24th and last: one win from five, 11 conceded, and beaten 4-0 at home by Stockport last Saturday. Gary Caldwell's side have to go to Hillsborough on the back of that, and the model makes Wednesday a 61% home win.

The bet: Sheffield Wednesday to win at 1.56 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Blackpool v Bromley (Saturday, 3pm UK)

Blackpool have lost their last two, both on the road, which has rather obscured what has been going on at Bloomfield Road: two games, no defeats, five scored and one conceded, including a 4-0 win over Peterborough a fortnight ago.

Bromley are the reason this is a bet rather than a shrug. They have conceded 15 goals in five League One games, more than any side in the division, and their last three have finished 2-7, 0-5 and 0-2. The model gives Blackpool a 56% home win.

The bet: Blackpool to win at 1.68 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Plymouth v Barnsley (Saturday, 3pm UK)

This is the loudest number on the entire EFL sheet - any division, any market. Plymouth's five league games have produced 15 goals, a flat three a game, and they have been involved in a 1-3, a 2-3 and two 2-0s. Barnsley's five have produced 14, and last Saturday they were taken apart 5-1 at Oakwell by Stevenage, having beaten Blackpool 2-1 in midweek and won 3-1 at Leyton Orient before that.

Neither side has decided what it is yet, which is the condition the overs market feeds on. The model makes it a 68% chance of three goals or more.

The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Scorers and season numbers for every name here are on the League One player stats page, with current shape on the League One power rankings.

League Two best bets

Barnet v Accrington (Saturday, 3pm UK)

This column owes Barnet nothing and has the scars to show for it: they have drawn their last three, and the 2-2 with Cheltenham a fortnight ago cost us a double. And yet Dean Brennan's side, reported as League Two's manager of the month for an unbeaten August, are still unbeaten in the league, third in the table, and joint-top scorers in the division with 12 in five.

Accrington have conceded more than anybody else in League Two, 11 in five, and have lost both away games, scoring twice and shipping five. The model makes Barnet a 62% home win, the strongest result call in the division.

The bet: Barnet to win at 1.56 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

York v Swindon (Saturday, 3pm UK)

York's five League Two matches have produced 17 goals, 3.4 a game, and they have won both of their home fixtures. Swindon sit second and have scored three in each of their last two, both in front of their own crowd.

The caveat is the one that turns this from a result bet into a goals bet: Swindon have yet to score away from home. York, meanwhile, have kept nobody quiet all season. The model wants three or more at 64%.

The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.

Same for the bottom tier: League Two power rankings and League Two player stats.

The Weekend Double: Sheffield Wednesday and Barnet

The double takes the two strongest result calls on the sheet, and they both come from the bottom two divisions: Sheffield Wednesday at home to Wigan, which the model makes 61%, and Barnet at home to Accrington, which it makes 62%. Together the pair pays around 10/7 (2.43) with bet365 at the time of writing.

Last week's double died with a Luton clean sheet nobody saw coming. This one asks two in-form home sides to beat the bottom club in League One and the leakiest defence in League Two. That is about as helpful as a fixture list gets, which is not the same thing as easy - ask Barnet, who have drawn three in a row against nobody in particular.

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FAQs

What are the best Championship bets this weekend? From the Statz model's coupon: Southampton to beat Bristol City at 1.62, Middlesbrough to beat Norwich at 1.79 and over 2.5 goals in Bolton v Cardiff at 1.62, all bet365 at the time of writing.

What are the best League One and League Two bets this weekend? Sheffield Wednesday to beat Wigan at 1.56, Blackpool to beat Bromley at 1.68 and over 2.5 goals in Plymouth v Barnsley at 1.50 in League One; Barnet to beat Accrington at 1.56 and over 2.5 goals in York v Swindon at 1.57 in League Two.

How are Seb's EFL best bets doing this season? After four settled editions on 1pt level stakes the column stands at -1.57pts from an 18-15 record. The midweek card was its worst yet, three winners from eight and 3.28pts down, and it is logged in full like every other week.