Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 11 October 2026, after the last game
Cardiff City have the biggest shortfall in the Championship: 7 points from chances worth 15.2 xPts, a gap of 8.2. At the other end, Stoke City have taken 16 points from an xPts figure of 9.6, 6.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 5 | 15 | 13.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | +10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 11.8 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | +5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 |
| 3 | Lincoln City | 4 | 3 | 9.0 | -6.0 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | -3 | 5.8 | -8.8 | 2 | 9.1 | -7.1 |
| 4 | Queens Park Rangers | 4 | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 5.3 | -5.3 | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 |
| 5 | Southampton | 5 | 16 | 10.1 | +5.9 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +12 | 2.6 | +9.4 | 15 | 8.3 | +6.7 |
| 6 | Swansea City | 5 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | +5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 |
| 7 | Cardiff City | 4 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 9 | Millwall | 4 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic | 5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Blackburn Rovers | 5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 13 | Preston North End | 5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | -5 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| 15 | Portsmouth | 4 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 4 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Norwich City | 4 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 4 | 8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | +5 | 0.7 | +4.3 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 19 | Watford | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 20 | Birmingham City | 4 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 21 | Bristol City | 4 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 23 | Derby County | 5 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | -5 | -4.4 | -0.6 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
| 24 | Sheffield United | 5 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | +1 | -3.9 | +4.9 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City | 5 | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | +2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 2 | Millwall | 5 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | -3 | 2.2 | -5.2 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | -3 | 0.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 4 | Cardiff City | 5 | 4 | 8.9 | -4.9 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | -5 | 0.8 | -5.8 | 1 | 7.4 | -6.4 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Bristol City | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -1.7 | -2.3 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 |
| 10 | Burnley | 5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 11 | Swansea City | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | Lincoln City | 5 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 14 | Southampton | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 1 | 4.9 | -3.9 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 4 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
| 17 | Derby County | 4 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Sheffield United | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 19 | Stoke City | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -6.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers | 4 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | -1 | -3.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 22 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 23 | Blackburn Rovers | 4 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -4.4 | +3.4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 24 | Charlton Athletic | 4 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | -5 | -6.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 5 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Cardiff City | 5 | 5 | 10.9 | -5.9 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -2 | 5.5 | -7.5 | 4 | 10.0 | -6.0 |
| 3 | Bristol City | 5 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Millwall | 5 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Lincoln City | 5 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | -2 | 3.1 | -5.1 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Portsmouth | 5 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 | Swansea City | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 11 | Stoke City | 5 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | +7 | -1.4 | +8.4 | 13 | 6.8 | +6.2 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Blackburn Rovers | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 14 | Southampton | 5 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 5 | 8.2 | -3.2 | +5 | -1.5 | +6.5 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | -4 | -1.2 | -2.8 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Burnley | 5 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.1 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Norwich City | 5 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Preston North End | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -2.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | 5 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | -6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | +0 | -2.9 | +2.9 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 22 | Derby County | 5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | -5 | -4.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 23 | Watford | 5 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -6 | -2.8 | -3.2 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 24 | Sheffield United | 5 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -4.9 | +4.9 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
Stoke City are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 15 goals from chances worth 9.1 xG, a gap of 5.9. Southampton are next on 4.9.
Lincoln City are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 7 goals from chances worth 14.1 xG, a shortfall of 7.1. Cardiff City are next on 6.7.
Stoke City are the luckiest side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 16 points from performances worth 9.6 xPts, 6.4 more than their chances deserved. Swansea City are next on 6.1.
Cardiff City are the unluckiest side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 15.2 xPts, 8.2 short of what they deserved. Preston North End are next on 7.6.
West Ham United would be top of the Championship in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.5 xPts from 20.5 xG created and 12.5 conceded across nine matches. Middlesbrough are next on 16.1.
West Ham United have created the most xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 20.5 from nine matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Millwall are next on 18.1.
Charlton Athletic have created the least xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 8.2 from nine matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Stoke City are next on 9.1.
Derby County have conceded the most xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 17.5 from nine matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bolton Wanderers are next on 15.9.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have conceded the least xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 8.3 from eight matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Middlesbrough are next on 10.3.
Championship teams have averaged 1.46 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 107 matches played, and have scored 1.42 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.37 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Championship teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.62 a game against 1.31 away, a home advantage of +0.31, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 9 | 23 | 20.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 12.5 | -0.5 | +11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 | +5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 18 | 16.0 | +2.0 |
| 3 | Millwall | 9 | 16 | 18.0 | -2.0 | 15 | 12.5 | +2.5 | +1 | 5.5 | -4.5 | 14 | 15.2 | -1.2 |
| 4 | Cardiff City | 9 | 11 | 17.7 | -6.7 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 | -3 | 5.0 | -8.0 | 7 | 15.2 | -8.2 |
| 5 | Birmingham City | 9 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 14 | 14.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Queens Park Rangers | 9 | 11 | 16.1 | -5.1 | 8 | 11.8 | -3.8 | +3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 14 | 14.8 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Lincoln City | 9 | 7 | 14.2 | -7.2 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | -4 | 3.3 | -7.3 | 11 | 14.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | +4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 14 | 14.3 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Swansea City | 9 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | +8 | 3.1 | +4.9 | 20 | 14.0 | +6.0 |
| 10 | Wrexham | 9 | 10 | 11.9 | -1.9 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 | -3 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 20 | 15.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 13.9 | -3.9 | +10 | 1.2 | +8.8 | 17 | 13.3 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 9 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 8 | 9 | 11.9 | -2.9 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | -2 | 1.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 11.9 | -3.9 |
| 14 | Norwich City | 9 | 17 | 14.0 | +3.0 | 19 | 15.1 | +3.9 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 9 | 11.9 | -2.9 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 9 | 8 | 11.2 | -3.2 | 16 | 12.9 | +3.1 | -8 | -1.7 | -6.3 | 4 | 11.6 | -7.6 |
| 16 | Burnley | 9 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 17 | 13.7 | +3.3 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| 17 | West Bromwich Albion | 9 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 14.2 | -5.2 | +1 | -2.8 | +3.8 | 14 | 10.8 | +3.2 |
| 18 | Bolton Wanderers | 9 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -2.9 | -2.1 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 |
| 19 | Stoke City | 9 | 15 | 9.1 | +5.9 | 13 | 14.5 | -1.5 | +2 | -5.5 | +7.5 | 16 | 9.6 | +6.4 |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | 9 | 14 | 9.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 14.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -4.6 | +5.6 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 |
| 21 | Derby County | 9 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 15 | 17.5 | -2.5 | -7 | -7.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 9.2 | -3.2 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 9 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 14.6 | -3.6 | -3 | -6.1 | +3.1 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 23 | Sheffield United | 9 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | 11 | 14.9 | -3.9 | +1 | -5.6 | +6.6 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 24 | Watford | 9 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 14 | 15.7 | -1.7 | -7 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |