West Bromwich Albion have the biggest shortfall in the Championship: 53 points from chances worth 74.6 xPts, a gap of 21.6. At the other end, Hull City have taken 73 points from an xPts figure of 56.6, 16.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipswich Town | 23 | 43 | 47.6 | -4.6 | 17 | 19.3 | -2.3 | +26 | 28.3 | -2.3 | 50 | 49.5 | +0.5 |
| 2 | Coventry City | 23 | 51 | 54.1 | -3.1 | 19 | 25.0 | -6.0 | +32 | 29.1 | +2.9 | 55 | 46.3 | +8.7 |
| 3 | West Bromwich Albion | 23 | 28 | 38.3 | -10.3 | 25 | 17.9 | +7.1 | +3 | 20.4 | -17.4 | 34 | 44.9 | -10.9 |
| 4 | Birmingham City | 23 | 39 | 43.8 | -4.8 | 22 | 23.0 | -1.0 | +17 | 20.9 | -3.9 | 44 | 44.1 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Sheffield United | 23 | 38 | 42.7 | -4.7 | 33 | 26.6 | +6.4 | +5 | 16.1 | -11.1 | 31 | 41.1 | -10.1 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 34 | 36.7 | -2.7 | 18 | 22.1 | -4.1 | +16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | 42 | 40.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Southampton | 23 | 38 | 40.2 | -2.2 | 19 | 25.1 | -6.1 | +19 | 15.1 | +3.9 | 44 | 40.2 | +3.8 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 23 | 40 | 37.5 | +2.5 | 37 | 27.9 | +9.1 | +3 | 9.6 | -6.6 | 33 | 38.5 | -5.5 |
| 9 | Millwall | 23 | 33 | 38.2 | -5.2 | 25 | 25.6 | -0.6 | +8 | 12.6 | -4.6 | 42 | 38.1 | +3.9 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 23 | 25 | 33.6 | -8.6 | 23 | 25.6 | -2.6 | +2 | 7.9 | -5.9 | 30 | 36.8 | -6.8 |
| 11 | Watford | 23 | 30 | 34.4 | -4.4 | 27 | 26.5 | +0.5 | +3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | 37 | 36.1 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 23 | 34 | 33.2 | +0.8 | 28 | 27.3 | +0.7 | +6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 33 | 35.7 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Blackburn Rovers | 24 | 20 | 30.4 | -10.4 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 | -7 | 3.6 | -10.6 | 24 | 35.6 | -11.6 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 23 | 41 | 35.4 | +5.6 | 37 | 29.5 | +7.5 | +4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 37 | 35.5 | +1.5 |
| 15 | Oxford United | 23 | 24 | 31.3 | -7.3 | 27 | 27.0 | +0.0 | -3 | 4.3 | -7.3 | 29 | 34.0 | -5.0 |
| 16 | Derby County | 23 | 31 | 29.3 | +1.7 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 36 | 33.8 | +2.2 |
| 17 | Norwich City | 23 | 27 | 32.5 | -5.5 | 28 | 29.3 | -1.3 | -1 | 3.2 | -4.2 | 30 | 33.7 | -3.7 |
| 18 | Hull City | 23 | 35 | 34.9 | +0.1 | 34 | 34.0 | +0.0 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 38 | 32.5 | +5.5 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 23 | 31 | 30.7 | +0.3 | 34 | 29.2 | +4.8 | -3 | 1.5 | -4.5 | 28 | 31.9 | -3.9 |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | 23 | 23 | 29.1 | -6.1 | 26 | 30.9 | -4.9 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 31 | 31.7 | -0.7 |
| 21 | Swansea City | 23 | 34 | 31.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 31.4 | -4.4 | +7 | -0.5 | +7.5 | 39 | 31.2 | +7.8 |
| 22 | Preston North End | 23 | 28 | 28.0 | +0.0 | 30 | 32.7 | -2.7 | -2 | -4.7 | +2.7 | 31 | 28.8 | +2.2 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 23 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1 | 31 | 34.3 | -3.3 | +2 | -6.4 | +8.4 | 31 | 27.9 | +3.1 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 23 | 14 | 22.1 | -8.1 | 44 | 44.9 | -0.9 | -30 | -22.8 | -7.2 | 10 | 19.1 | -9.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 38 | 37.1 | +0.9 | 29 | 25.2 | +3.8 | +9 | 11.9 | -2.9 | 38 | 38.3 | -0.3 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 24 | 37 | 36.9 | +0.1 | 31 | 29.5 | +1.5 | +6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 34 | 37.7 | -3.7 |
| 3 | Coventry City | 23 | 46 | 39.8 | +6.2 | 26 | 27.4 | -1.4 | +20 | 12.4 | +7.6 | 40 | 37.4 | +2.6 |
| 4 | Southampton | 23 | 44 | 38.5 | +5.5 | 37 | 35.5 | +1.5 | +7 | 3.0 | +4.0 | 36 | 33.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Sheffield United | 23 | 28 | 32.6 | -4.6 | 33 | 33.9 | -0.9 | -5 | -1.3 | -3.7 | 29 | 30.8 | -1.8 |
| 6 | Watford | 23 | 23 | 27.3 | -4.3 | 38 | 30.8 | +7.2 | -15 | -3.5 | -11.5 | 20 | 29.8 | -9.8 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 23 | 20 | 27.9 | -7.9 | 33 | 30.4 | +2.6 | -13 | -2.5 | -10.5 | 19 | 29.7 | -10.7 |
| 8 | Millwall | 23 | 31 | 32.3 | -1.3 | 24 | 35.7 | -11.7 | +7 | -3.4 | +10.4 | 41 | 29.6 | +11.4 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 23 | 36 | 29.8 | +6.2 | 28 | 37.8 | -9.8 | +8 | -8.0 | +16.0 | 35 | 28.4 | +6.6 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 23 | 18 | 24.6 | -6.6 | 34 | 29.3 | +4.7 | -16 | -4.7 | -11.3 | 20 | 28.2 | -8.2 |
| 11 | Swansea City | 23 | 23 | 25.3 | -2.3 | 32 | 31.6 | +0.4 | -9 | -6.2 | -2.8 | 25 | 27.5 | -2.5 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 23 | 26 | 26.6 | -0.6 | 28 | 33.6 | -5.6 | -2 | -7.0 | +5.0 | 31 | 27.3 | +3.7 |
| 13 | Blackburn Rovers | 23 | 23 | 26.1 | -3.1 | 29 | 33.3 | -4.3 | -6 | -7.2 | +1.2 | 31 | 27.3 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Derby County | 23 | 36 | 27.2 | +8.8 | 32 | 35.3 | -3.3 | +4 | -8.1 | +12.1 | 33 | 27.1 | +5.9 |
| 15 | Leicester City | 23 | 27 | 28.1 | -1.1 | 34 | 38.4 | -4.4 | -7 | -10.2 | +3.2 | 24 | 25.8 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 23 | 24 | 20.5 | +3.5 | 41 | 31.4 | +9.6 | -17 | -10.9 | -6.1 | 25 | 25.5 | -0.5 |
| 17 | Queens Park Rangers | 23 | 21 | 22.5 | -1.5 | 36 | 33.4 | +2.6 | -15 | -10.9 | -4.1 | 25 | 24.7 | +0.3 |
| 18 | Hull City | 23 | 35 | 28.7 | +6.3 | 32 | 44.7 | -12.7 | +3 | -16.1 | +19.1 | 35 | 24.1 | +10.9 |
| 19 | Preston North End | 23 | 27 | 26.1 | +0.9 | 32 | 42.2 | -10.2 | -5 | -16.0 | +11.0 | 29 | 23.3 | +5.7 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 23 | 17 | 23.8 | -6.8 | 28 | 38.3 | -10.3 | -11 | -14.6 | +3.6 | 22 | 23.2 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 23 | 21 | 23.8 | -2.8 | 32 | 40.4 | -8.4 | -11 | -16.7 | +5.7 | 22 | 22.9 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Oxford United | 23 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 | 32 | 38.7 | -6.7 | -11 | -16.0 | +5.0 | 18 | 21.9 | -3.9 |
| 23 | Wrexham | 23 | 28 | 20.8 | +7.2 | 28 | 38.5 | -10.5 | +0 | -17.7 | +17.7 | 34 | 20.9 | +13.1 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 23 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | 45 | 47.6 | -2.6 | -30 | -29.1 | -0.9 | 8 | 14.4 | -6.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry City | 5 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +10 | 5.1 | +4.9 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 2 | Southampton | 5 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 3 | Millwall | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 5 | Leicester City | 5 | 4 | 10.5 | -6.5 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | -1 | 3.9 | -4.9 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | +4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 |
| 8 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | +4 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Sheffield United | 5 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Hull City | 5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 11 | Norwich City | 5 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 11 | 6.8 | +4.2 | -8 | -0.5 | -7.5 | 1 | 6.5 | -5.5 |
| 13 | Oxford United | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Derby County | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Swansea City | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 8.2 | -3.2 | +3 | -1.2 | +4.2 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 16 | Preston North End | 5 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Watford | 5 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 | 16 | 8.2 | +7.8 | -15 | -1.9 | -13.1 | 0 | 5.8 | -5.8 |
| 19 | Charlton Athletic | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 5 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 |
| 21 | Bristol City | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 22 | Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 |
| 23 | Sheffield Wednesday | 5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 | -3 | -5.3 | +2.3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers | 5 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | -2 | -5.6 | +3.6 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 |
Wrexham overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2025/2026, with 69 goals from chances worth 56.2 xG, a gap of 12.8. Derby County were next on 10.5.
West Bromwich Albion underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2025/2026, with 48 goals from chances worth 66.2 xG, a shortfall of 18.2. Blackburn Rovers were next on 13.5.
Hull City were the luckiest side in the Championship in 2025/2026, with 73 points from performances worth 56.6 xPts, 16.4 more than their chances deserved. Millwall were next on 15.2.
West Bromwich Albion were the unluckiest side in the Championship in 2025/2026, with 53 points from performances worth 74.6 xPts, 21.6 short of what they deserved. Sheffield Wednesday were next on 15.5.
Ipswich Town would be top of the Championship in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 87.1 xPts from 84.5 xG created and 48.8 conceded across 47 matches. Coventry City were next on 83.7.
Coventry City created the most xG in the Championship in 2025/2026, 93.9 from 46 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Ipswich Town were next on 84.5.
Sheffield Wednesday created the least xG in the Championship in 2025/2026, 40.5 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Charlton Athletic were next on 52.9.
Sheffield Wednesday conceded the most xG in the Championship in 2025/2026, 92.4 from 46 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Hull City were next on 78.8.
Middlesbrough conceded the least xG in the Championship in 2025/2026, 47.3 from 46 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. West Bromwich Albion were next on 48.3.
Championship teams averaged 1.37 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 553 matches played, and scored 1.30 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.28 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Championship teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.52 a game against 1.21 away, a home advantage of +0.32, against +0.36 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipswich Town | 47 | 80 | 84.5 | -4.5 | 48 | 48.8 | -0.8 | +32 | 35.7 | -3.7 | 84 | 87.1 | -3.1 |
| 2 | Coventry City | 46 | 97 | 93.9 | +3.1 | 45 | 52.4 | -7.4 | +52 | 41.6 | +10.4 | 95 | 83.7 | +11.3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 72 | 73.8 | -1.8 | 47 | 47.3 | -0.3 | +25 | 26.5 | -1.5 | 80 | 79.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 48 | 66.2 | -18.2 | 58 | 48.3 | +9.7 | -10 | 17.9 | -27.9 | 53 | 74.6 | -21.6 |
| 5 | Southampton | 46 | 82 | 78.8 | +3.2 | 56 | 60.6 | -4.6 | +26 | 18.1 | +7.9 | 80 | 73.5 | +6.5 |
| 6 | Birmingham City | 46 | 57 | 68.4 | -11.4 | 56 | 52.2 | +3.8 | +1 | 16.2 | -15.2 | 64 | 72.3 | -8.3 |
| 7 | Sheffield United | 46 | 66 | 75.3 | -9.3 | 66 | 60.5 | +5.5 | +0 | 14.9 | -14.9 | 60 | 72.0 | -12.0 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 64 | 70.4 | -6.4 | 49 | 61.3 | -12.3 | +15 | 9.2 | +5.8 | 83 | 67.8 | +15.2 |
| 9 | Watford | 46 | 53 | 61.7 | -8.7 | 65 | 57.3 | +7.7 | -12 | 4.4 | -16.4 | 57 | 65.9 | -8.9 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 61 | 60.0 | +1.0 | 73 | 61.3 | +11.7 | -12 | -1.3 | -10.7 | 58 | 63.2 | -5.2 |
| 11 | Blackburn Rovers | 47 | 43 | 56.5 | -13.5 | 56 | 60.1 | -4.1 | -13 | -3.6 | -9.4 | 55 | 62.9 | -7.9 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 46 | 49 | 54.1 | -5.1 | 64 | 57.1 | +6.9 | -15 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 55 | 62.4 | -7.4 |
| 13 | Norwich City | 46 | 63 | 62.3 | +0.7 | 56 | 67.1 | -11.1 | +7 | -4.8 | +11.8 | 65 | 62.1 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Derby County | 46 | 67 | 56.5 | +10.5 | 59 | 60.8 | -1.8 | +8 | -4.4 | +12.4 | 69 | 61.0 | +8.0 |
| 15 | Stoke City | 46 | 51 | 57.0 | -6.0 | 56 | 65.6 | -9.6 | -5 | -8.6 | +3.6 | 55 | 58.9 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Swansea City | 46 | 57 | 56.3 | +0.7 | 59 | 63.0 | -4.0 | -2 | -6.7 | +4.7 | 64 | 58.7 | +5.3 |
| 17 | Leicester City | 46 | 58 | 58.8 | -0.8 | 68 | 67.6 | +0.4 | -10 | -8.7 | -1.3 | 52 | 57.8 | -5.8 |
| 18 | Hull City | 46 | 70 | 63.6 | +6.4 | 66 | 78.8 | -12.8 | +4 | -15.2 | +19.2 | 73 | 56.6 | +16.4 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 46 | 69 | 56.2 | +12.8 | 65 | 68.0 | -3.0 | +4 | -11.8 | +15.8 | 71 | 56.4 | +14.6 |
| 20 | Oxford United | 46 | 45 | 54.0 | -9.0 | 59 | 65.7 | -6.7 | -14 | -11.7 | -2.3 | 47 | 55.9 | -8.9 |
| 21 | Bristol City | 46 | 59 | 54.5 | +4.5 | 59 | 67.9 | -8.9 | +0 | -13.4 | +13.4 | 62 | 55.2 | +6.8 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 46 | 44 | 52.9 | -8.9 | 58 | 71.3 | -13.3 | -14 | -18.5 | +4.5 | 53 | 54.6 | -1.6 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 46 | 55 | 54.2 | +0.8 | 62 | 74.9 | -12.9 | -7 | -20.7 | +13.7 | 60 | 52.1 | +7.9 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 29 | 40.5 | -11.5 | 89 | 92.4 | -3.4 | -60 | -51.9 | -8.1 | 18 | 33.5 | -15.5 |