Cardiff City have the biggest shortfall in the Championship: 44 points from chances worth 59.5 xPts, a gap of 15.5. At the other end, Burnley have taken 100 points from an xPts figure of 73.9, 26.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 23 | 61 | 53.6 | +7.4 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | +49 | 42.4 | +6.6 | 58 | 54.2 | +3.8 |
| 2 | Coventry City | 23 | 40 | 41.2 | -1.2 | 24 | 23.5 | +0.5 | +16 | 17.7 | -1.7 | 45 | 42.5 | +2.5 |
| 3 | Sheffield United | 23 | 33 | 36.2 | -3.2 | 17 | 21.5 | -4.5 | +16 | 14.7 | +1.3 | 49 | 41.9 | +7.1 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 23 | 32 | 34.9 | -2.9 | 18 | 20.3 | -2.3 | +14 | 14.6 | -0.6 | 43 | 41.6 | +1.4 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 31 | 35.4 | -4.4 | 23 | 21.9 | +1.1 | +8 | 13.5 | -5.5 | 39 | 39.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 23 | 33 | 35.5 | -2.5 | 20 | 23.7 | -3.7 | +13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 41 | 39.4 | +1.6 |
| 7 | Burnley | 23 | 35 | 30.3 | +4.7 | 8 | 19.9 | -11.9 | +27 | 10.4 | +16.6 | 51 | 39.2 | +11.8 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 23 | 36 | 36.3 | -0.3 | 20 | 23.7 | -3.7 | +16 | 12.6 | +3.4 | 46 | 38.5 | +7.5 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 23 | 52 | 38.4 | +13.6 | 34 | 28.9 | +5.1 | +18 | 9.5 | +8.5 | 38 | 37.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Luton Town | 22 | 23 | 31.6 | -8.6 | 21 | 22.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 9.4 | -7.4 | 31 | 36.7 | -5.7 |
| 11 | Preston North End | 23 | 26 | 32.4 | -6.4 | 22 | 23.7 | -1.7 | +4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | 33 | 36.2 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Swansea City | 23 | 33 | 34.0 | -1.0 | 24 | 26.9 | -2.9 | +9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 36 | 36.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | Millwall | 23 | 27 | 28.2 | -1.2 | 19 | 20.7 | -1.7 | +8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 40 | 35.9 | +4.1 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 23 | 34 | 32.6 | +1.4 | 23 | 27.0 | -4.0 | +11 | 5.7 | +5.3 | 40 | 35.4 | +4.6 |
| 15 | Cardiff City | 23 | 24 | 30.1 | -6.1 | 27 | 25.9 | +1.1 | -3 | 4.1 | -7.1 | 27 | 34.6 | -7.6 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 22 | 29 | 31.8 | -2.8 | 20 | 24.7 | -4.7 | +9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 37 | 34.3 | +2.7 |
| 17 | Derby County | 23 | 25 | 29.8 | -4.8 | 18 | 25.8 | -7.8 | +7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | 32 | 33.9 | -1.9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Wednesday | 22 | 28 | 38.7 | -10.7 | 32 | 30.4 | +1.6 | -4 | 8.3 | -12.3 | 23 | 33.8 | -10.8 |
| 19 | Watford | 23 | 27 | 31.2 | -4.2 | 22 | 29.7 | -7.7 | +5 | 1.5 | +3.5 | 40 | 33.0 | +7.0 |
| 20 | Queens Park Rangers | 23 | 31 | 28.5 | +2.5 | 34 | 28.1 | +5.9 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 29 | 32.1 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Hull City | 22 | 22 | 29.1 | -7.1 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 | -5 | 2.3 | -7.3 | 20 | 31.8 | -11.8 |
| 22 | Stoke City | 23 | 29 | 25.3 | +3.7 | 25 | 28.8 | -3.8 | +4 | -3.5 | +7.5 | 33 | 29.6 | +3.4 |
| 23 | Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 40 | 28.1 | +11.9 | 39 | 35.0 | +4.0 | +1 | -6.9 | +7.9 | 34 | 27.5 | +6.5 |
| 24 | Oxford United | 23 | 31 | 23.9 | +7.1 | 29 | 31.8 | -2.8 | +2 | -7.9 | +9.9 | 38 | 27.4 | +10.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 23 | 34 | 39.6 | -5.6 | 18 | 19.8 | -1.8 | +16 | 19.8 | -3.8 | 42 | 44.2 | -2.2 |
| 2 | Burnley | 23 | 34 | 29.1 | +4.9 | 8 | 22.2 | -14.2 | +26 | 6.9 | +19.1 | 49 | 34.7 | +14.3 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 33 | 33.1 | -0.1 | 33 | 32.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 25 | 32.8 | -7.8 |
| 4 | Sheffield United | 23 | 30 | 28.7 | +1.3 | 19 | 27.6 | -8.6 | +11 | 1.1 | +9.9 | 43 | 32.1 | +10.9 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 23 | 24 | 26.0 | -2.0 | 27 | 26.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 23 | 30.4 | -7.4 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 23 | 26 | 30.1 | -4.1 | 26 | 33.4 | -7.4 | +0 | -3.3 | +3.3 | 33 | 30.2 | +2.8 |
| 7 | Coventry City | 22 | 23 | 28.5 | -5.5 | 30 | 27.8 | +2.2 | -7 | 0.6 | -7.6 | 24 | 29.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 23 | 30 | 26.1 | +3.9 | 37 | 31.1 | +5.9 | -7 | -5.1 | -1.9 | 32 | 28.6 | +3.4 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 23 | 19 | 25.4 | -6.4 | 34 | 29.8 | +4.2 | -15 | -4.5 | -10.5 | 19 | 28.0 | -9.0 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 23 | 22 | 20.4 | +1.6 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 | -7 | -7.1 | +0.1 | 27 | 26.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Millwall | 23 | 20 | 25.5 | -5.5 | 30 | 33.9 | -3.9 | -10 | -8.4 | -1.6 | 26 | 25.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Watford | 23 | 26 | 27.2 | -1.2 | 39 | 36.6 | +2.4 | -13 | -9.4 | -3.6 | 17 | 25.4 | -8.4 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 23 | 23 | 23.9 | -0.9 | 35 | 34.2 | +0.8 | -12 | -10.2 | -1.8 | 22 | 25.3 | -3.3 |
| 14 | Hull City | 23 | 20 | 23.2 | -3.2 | 26 | 34.0 | -8.0 | -6 | -10.8 | +4.8 | 26 | 25.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Cardiff City | 23 | 24 | 23.5 | +0.5 | 46 | 37.0 | +9.0 | -22 | -13.5 | -8.5 | 17 | 24.9 | -7.9 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 23 | 19 | 21.3 | -2.3 | 25 | 30.6 | -5.6 | -6 | -9.4 | +3.4 | 26 | 24.7 | +1.3 |
| 17 | Derby County | 22 | 22 | 19.6 | +2.4 | 36 | 27.4 | +8.6 | -14 | -7.8 | -6.2 | 18 | 24.1 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Swansea City | 22 | 17 | 23.5 | -6.5 | 30 | 35.8 | -5.8 | -13 | -12.3 | -0.7 | 25 | 23.7 | +1.3 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 23 | 25 | 27.2 | -2.2 | 50 | 42.1 | +7.9 | -25 | -14.9 | -10.1 | 14 | 23.6 | -9.6 |
| 20 | Preston North End | 23 | 22 | 23.1 | -1.1 | 37 | 38.0 | -1.0 | -15 | -14.8 | -0.2 | 17 | 23.1 | -6.1 |
| 21 | Luton Town | 23 | 20 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 47 | 37.9 | +9.1 | -27 | -17.3 | -9.7 | 15 | 21.8 | -6.8 |
| 22 | Stoke City | 22 | 16 | 24.6 | -8.6 | 35 | 43.1 | -8.1 | -19 | -18.6 | -0.4 | 18 | 19.6 | -1.6 |
| 23 | Oxford United | 23 | 18 | 19.1 | -1.1 | 36 | 38.0 | -2.0 | -18 | -18.8 | +0.8 | 15 | 19.6 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 11 | 12.9 | -1.9 | 49 | 50.5 | -1.5 | -38 | -37.7 | -0.3 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 5 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 13.2 | +1.8 |
| 2 | Burnley | 5 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +10 | 4.4 | +5.6 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Millwall | 5 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | -1 | 2.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 4 | Sheffield United | 5 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 6 | Hull City | 5 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 7 | Portsmouth | 5 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Derby County | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 5 | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -2 | 1.7 | -3.7 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 | Swansea City | 5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Luton Town | 5 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Cardiff City | 5 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -5 | -0.2 | -4.8 | 2 | 7.1 | -5.1 |
| 13 | Oxford United | 5 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | +2 | -0.3 | +2.3 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 14 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 8.9 | -5.9 | 6 | 10.3 | -4.3 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 0 | 6.2 | -6.2 |
| 16 | Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | -4 | -1.6 | -2.4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +1 | -1.6 | +2.6 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Preston North End | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | -4 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 5.6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 5 | 9 | 4.6 | +4.4 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | +6 | -2.2 | +8.2 | 13 | 5.3 | +7.7 |
| 20 | Norwich City | 5 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Bristol City | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | -5 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 22 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 7 | 10.9 | -3.9 | +2 | -4.4 | +6.4 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 23 | Watford | 5 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | -4 | -5.3 | +1.3 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 5 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -5 | -5.6 | +0.6 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
Plymouth Argyle overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2024/2025, with 51 goals from chances worth 41.0 xG, a gap of 10.0. Burnley were next on 9.7.
Hull City underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2024/2025, with 42 goals from chances worth 52.3 xG, a shortfall of 10.3. Luton Town were next on 9.1.
Burnley were the luckiest side in the Championship in 2024/2025, with 100 points from performances worth 73.9 xPts, 26.1 more than their chances deserved. Sheffield United were next on 18.1.
Cardiff City were the unluckiest side in the Championship in 2024/2025, with 44 points from performances worth 59.5 xPts, 15.5 short of what they deserved. Luton Town were next on 12.5.
Leeds United were also top of the Championship in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 98.4 xPts from 93.2 xG created and 31.0 conceded across 46 matches. Burnley and Sheffield United were next on 73.9.
Leeds United created the most xG in the Championship in 2024/2025, 93.2 from 46 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Coventry City were next on 69.7.
Plymouth Argyle created the least xG in the Championship in 2024/2025, 41.0 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Oxford United were next on 43.1.
Plymouth Argyle conceded the most xG in the Championship in 2024/2025, 85.6 from 46 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Stoke City were next on 72.0.
Leeds United conceded the least xG in the Championship in 2024/2025, 31.0 from 46 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Burnley were next on 42.1.
Championship teams averaged 1.28 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 548 matches played, and scored 1.22 goals a game from it.
Championship teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.45 a game against 1.10 away, a home advantage of +0.36.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 46 | 95 | 93.2 | +1.8 | 30 | 31.0 | -1.0 | +65 | 62.2 | +2.8 | 100 | 98.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Burnley | 46 | 69 | 59.3 | +9.7 | 16 | 42.1 | -26.1 | +53 | 17.3 | +35.7 | 100 | 73.9 | +26.1 |
| 3 | Sheffield United | 46 | 63 | 64.9 | -1.9 | 36 | 49.1 | -13.1 | +27 | 15.7 | +11.3 | 92 | 73.9 | +18.1 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 64 | 68.5 | -4.5 | 56 | 54.3 | +1.7 | +8 | 14.2 | -6.2 | 64 | 72.8 | -8.8 |
| 5 | Coventry City | 45 | 63 | 69.7 | -6.7 | 54 | 51.3 | +2.7 | +9 | 18.4 | -9.4 | 69 | 72.2 | -3.2 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 58 | 64.9 | -6.9 | 44 | 53.7 | -9.7 | +14 | 11.3 | +2.7 | 76 | 71.8 | +4.2 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 46 | 57 | 61.5 | -4.5 | 47 | 50.1 | -3.1 | +10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | 64 | 69.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 | Norwich City | 46 | 71 | 63.8 | +7.2 | 68 | 58.7 | +9.3 | +3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 57 | 65.3 | -8.3 |
| 9 | Bristol City | 46 | 59 | 60.2 | -1.2 | 55 | 57.9 | -2.9 | +4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 68 | 63.8 | +4.2 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 45 | 58 | 64.7 | -6.7 | 69 | 61.5 | +7.5 | -11 | 3.3 | -14.3 | 55 | 62.4 | -7.4 |
| 11 | Millwall | 46 | 47 | 53.7 | -6.7 | 49 | 54.7 | -5.7 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 66 | 61.5 | +4.5 |
| 12 | Blackburn Rovers | 46 | 53 | 53.9 | -0.9 | 48 | 57.6 | -9.6 | +5 | -3.7 | +8.7 | 66 | 60.1 | +5.9 |
| 13 | Swansea City | 45 | 50 | 57.6 | -7.6 | 54 | 62.7 | -8.7 | -4 | -5.2 | +1.2 | 61 | 59.7 | +1.3 |
| 14 | Cardiff City | 46 | 48 | 53.6 | -5.6 | 73 | 62.9 | +10.1 | -25 | -9.3 | -15.7 | 44 | 59.5 | -15.5 |
| 15 | Preston North End | 46 | 48 | 55.6 | -7.6 | 59 | 61.7 | -2.7 | -11 | -6.1 | -4.9 | 50 | 59.3 | -9.3 |
| 16 | Queens Park Rangers | 46 | 53 | 48.9 | +4.1 | 63 | 55.6 | +7.4 | -10 | -6.7 | -3.3 | 56 | 58.5 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Luton Town | 45 | 43 | 52.1 | -9.1 | 68 | 60.0 | +8.0 | -25 | -7.9 | -17.1 | 46 | 58.5 | -12.5 |
| 18 | Watford | 46 | 53 | 58.4 | -5.4 | 61 | 66.4 | -5.4 | -8 | -7.9 | -0.1 | 57 | 58.4 | -1.4 |
| 19 | Derby County | 45 | 47 | 49.5 | -2.5 | 54 | 53.2 | +0.8 | -7 | -3.7 | -3.3 | 50 | 58.0 | -8.0 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 45 | 54 | 58.9 | -4.9 | 70 | 66.7 | +3.3 | -16 | -7.8 | -8.2 | 51 | 58.0 | -7.0 |
| 21 | Hull City | 45 | 42 | 52.3 | -10.3 | 53 | 60.8 | -7.8 | -11 | -8.5 | -2.5 | 46 | 56.9 | -10.9 |
| 22 | Stoke City | 45 | 45 | 49.9 | -4.9 | 60 | 72.0 | -12.0 | -15 | -22.0 | +7.0 | 51 | 49.2 | +1.8 |
| 23 | Oxford United | 46 | 49 | 43.1 | +5.9 | 65 | 69.8 | -4.8 | -16 | -26.7 | +10.7 | 53 | 47.0 | +6.0 |
| 24 | Plymouth Argyle | 46 | 51 | 41.0 | +10.0 | 88 | 85.6 | +2.4 | -37 | -44.6 | +7.6 | 46 | 38.5 | +7.5 |