First, the reckoning - and this week it covers two Saturdays, because the column owes you last week's numbers too. The bank-holiday card finished four winners from six singles - the West Ham goals, Wycombe's both-ends, Bristol Rovers' 5-3 thriller and Barnet away - but Birmingham and Luton both drew, and the double died with Luton: 0.13pt down on the week. Saturday just gone was busier. Middlesbrough beat West Brom 3-1, Sheffield Wednesday put seven past Bromley, Blackpool's 4-0 landed the overs, York won again and the Cardiff-Sheffield United goals obliged in a 2-2 - five of the eight up. But West Ham drew at Watford, Barnet were pegged back to 2-2 by Cheltenham, Shrewsbury v Salford stopped at 1-0, and Barnet's draw killed the Wednesday-Barnet double: 0.69pt down. On 1pt level stakes the column stands at +1.71pts after three settled editions - a number you get in full whether it flatters us or not.
Now the good news: the whole EFL goes again inside 48 hours, with a full twelve-match card in each division across Tuesday and Wednesday night. As ever, everything below comes off the Statz Acca Sheet, which prices every match-result and goals market on the coupon against the model. Seven bets this midweek - three in the Championship, two apiece in Leagues One and Two - plus a Midweek Double that pays around 7/5. All odds bet365, at the time of writing.
Sheffield United have drawn all three of their league games - Saturday's 2-2 at Cardiff the latest - and sit 14th with a squad assembled for considerably better than that. The model is unmoved by the slow start: it makes Tuesday night at Bramall Lane a 55% home win, the strongest result call on the entire Championship midweek card, against a Bolton side that has scored twice in three league games.
The bet: Sheffield United to win at 1.62 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Promoted Charlton arrive at The Hawthorns top of the Championship with three wins from three, and nobody has enjoyed the story more than this column, which cashed the goals bet when they won at West Ham a fortnight ago. The model deals in probabilities, not fairytales, and it still wants the home side: West Brom, beaten 3-1 at Middlesbrough on Saturday but winners of two of their three league games, are its second-strongest result call in the division this midweek at 51%.
The bet: West Brom to win at 1.71 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Burnley's return to the second tier has produced one point, four goals scored and nine conceded - every one of their league games has been an event. Middlesbrough arrive fifth, with Saturday's 3-1 over West Brom a second win in three. The model's top goals number in the division lands here: both teams to score at 58%.
The bet: Both teams to score in Burnley v Middlesbrough at 1.57 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Bradford have made the quiet kind of good start: two wins from three league games, only two goals conceded, sixth in the table before the coupon's Tuesday shift. The model makes them the strongest result call in League One this midweek at 49%, at home to a Cambridge side that has already let in five.
The bet: Bradford to win at 1.68 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Luton's league season so far reads eight scored, ten conceded - eighteen goals in three games - and Wednesday's visitors Stockport have been nearly as generous in both directions, nine scored and four let in. The model makes both teams scoring at Kenilworth Road a 65% chance: the biggest number on the entire midweek sheet, any division, any market.
The bet: Both teams to score in Luton v Stockport at 1.57 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Grimsby are unbeaten in the league - a win, two draws and just two goals conceded - and Tuesday takes them to an Accrington side still without a win and with seven let in across three games. The column backed Grimsby successfully on opening weekend and the model likes them again here, at the biggest price of this midweek's seven.
The bet: Grimsby to win at 1.91 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
Barnet top the early League Two table and have entertained all the way there - eight scored, four conceded, and a 2-2 with Cheltenham on Saturday that cost this column its double. Exeter found the net in defeat at York and will fancy goals at St James Park against a leader that attacks first and tidies up later. The model puts both teams scoring at 62%.
The bet: Both teams to score in Exeter v Barnet at 1.53 with bet365 at the time of writing - full match stats here.
The double takes the two loudest numbers on the sheet rather than two winners: both teams to score at Luton v Stockport, which the model makes 65%, and both teams to score in Exeter v Barnet at 62%. Together the pair pays around 7/5 (2.40) with bet365 at the time of writing. Saturday's double lost and the ledger above says so plainly; this one is built on goals rather than results, which at least means a draw cannot sink it.
What are the best Championship bets this midweek? From the Statz model's coupon: Sheffield United to beat Bolton at 1.62, West Brom to beat Charlton at 1.71 and both teams to score in Burnley v Middlesbrough at 1.57, all bet365 at the time of writing.
What are the best League One and League Two midweek bets? Bradford to beat Cambridge at 1.68 and both teams to score in Luton v Stockport at 1.57 in League One; Grimsby to win at Accrington at 1.91 and both teams to score in Exeter v Barnet at 1.53 in League Two.
How are the column's tips doing? After three settled editions on 1pt level stakes the column stands at +1.71pts. Saturday's card won five of its eight singles but two draws, a 1-0 and the double made it a 0.69pt losing week - recorded in full, as always.