An xG table ranks clubs by the quality of the chances they create and concede rather than by the goals that happened to go in. Every shot is scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted, and those values are summed into expected goals for (League Two xG) and against (xGA).

Expected points. Each finished match is run through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, which produces a win, draw and loss probability; the team is then awarded three points and one point weighted by those probabilities. Summed across the season it estimates the points a club's performances were worth.

Why do some teams have far more points than xPts?

Usually a mix of clinical finishing, good goalkeeping and luck. Finishing skill is real but small and hard to sustain, so a large positive gap between points and xPts more often signals results that will drift back towards the underlying numbers than a permanently better team.

Where does the League Two xG data come from?

Shot-level data is supplied by Sportmonks and updates after every finished match, typically within a few hours of full-time. Different providers train their xG models on different data, so our figures will not match another site's exactly, though the ranking is generally similar.

League Two xG Table 2026/2027

Walsall lead the League Two on expected points in 2026/2027, with 4.9 xG created and 2.5 conceded across their matches. Shrewsbury have the biggest gap between results and underlying numbers — 0 points from chances worth 2.8 xPts. The full table below covers 24 matches, and is sortable on every column.

How these xG numbers are calculated

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.

League Two 2026/2027 xG table

#	Team	Played	xG	xGA	xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Walsall	2	4.9	2.5	2.4	4	4.2	-0.2
2	Chesterfield	2	4.4	2.1	2.3	3	4.2	-1.2
3	Bristol Rovers	2	5.4	2.7	2.8	3	4.1	-1.1
4	York	2	4.2	2.8	1.4	4	3.6	+0.4
5	Northampton	2	2.0	1.0	1.0	1	3.6	-2.6
6	Crewe	2	3.2	2.0	1.2	6	3.4	+2.6
7	Exeter City	2	3.5	2.5	1.0	3	3.4	-0.4
8	Rotherham	2	3.3	2.6	0.7	1	3.2	-2.2
9	Colchester	2	3.3	2.6	0.7	4	3.2	+0.8
10	Barnet	2	3.1	2.6	0.5	6	3.1	+2.9
11	Port Vale	2	2.2	2.1	0.1	1	2.8	-1.8
12	Accrington	2	3.1	3.0	0.1	1	2.8	-1.8
13	Shrewsbury	2	2.6	2.5	0.0	0	2.8	-2.8
14	Crawley	2	3.2	3.3	0.0	3	2.8	+0.2
15	Newport	2	2.1	3.6	-1.5	3	2.5	+0.5
16	Grimsby	2	2.7	3.4	-0.7	4	2.4	+1.6
17	Gillingham	2	2.6	3.7	-1.1	1	2.3	-1.3
18	Tranmere	2	2.0	2.9	-1.0	4	2.1	+1.9
19	Oldham	2	1.7	3.1	-1.4	3	2.1	+0.9
20	Fleetwood	2	2.3	3.6	-1.3	4	2.0	+2.0
21	Cheltenham	2	1.6	3.2	-1.6	3	1.9	+1.1
22	Salford	2	1.9	3.6	-1.7	0	1.7	-1.7
23	Swindon	2	1.0	2.3	-1.3	4	1.6	+2.4
24	Rochdale	2	1.1	3.6	-2.5	0	1.0	-1.0