Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 10 October 2026, after the last game
Oldham Athletic have the biggest shortfall in the League Two: 8 points from chances worth 12.7 xPts, a gap of 4.7. At the other end, Barnet have taken 18 points from an xPts figure of 12.9, 5.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 5 | 10 | 12.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | York City | 5 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 |
| 5 | Exeter City | 5 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | +3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Newport County | 5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 7 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | Port Vale | 4 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | +2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Salford City | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 10 | Barnet | 4 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 11 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +4 | 1.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 14 | Walsall | 4 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Oldham Athletic | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 17 | Colchester United | 4 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Rotherham United | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +4 | -0.4 | +4.4 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 |
| 20 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | +3 | -1.1 | +4.1 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 5 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 23 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | +1 | -4.7 | +5.7 | 10 | 3.9 | +6.1 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 4 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -5 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 5 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Rotherham United | 5 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 3 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Salford City | 5 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | +2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 5 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 |
| 6 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 8 | Walsall | 5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 8.9 | -4.9 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | York City | 4 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 |
| 10 | Crawley Town | 4 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 11 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | -6 | -0.7 | -5.3 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 5 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | +3 | -1.9 | +4.9 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
| 13 | Oldham Athletic | 4 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -0.1 | -4.9 | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 |
| 14 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 |
| 15 | Barnet | 4 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | +4 | -0.7 | +4.7 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 |
| 16 | Newport County | 5 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Colchester United | 5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -4.4 | -0.6 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 4 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 4.2 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -4.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Northampton Town | 4 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 5 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | -3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 23 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 11.8 | -4.8 | -2 | -5.7 | +3.7 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 24 | Swindon Town | 5 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | -9 | -7.7 | -1.3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 5 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | +4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 |
| 2 | York City | 5 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 3 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | +1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 |
| 4 | Newport County | 5 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 5 | Salford City | 5 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 2.1 | +4.9 | 13 | 8.6 | +4.4 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 5 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | -3 | 3.0 | -6.0 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | Barnet | 5 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 8 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Walsall | 5 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -4 | -0.1 | -3.9 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 12 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 0.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 13 | Oldham Athletic | 5 | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | -8 | -0.1 | -7.9 | 1 | 6.7 | -5.7 |
| 14 | Gillingham | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | +5 | -0.2 | +5.2 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 15 | Crawley Town | 5 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 11 | 10.4 | +0.6 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 |
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | -8 | -0.7 | -7.3 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 |
| 17 | Rotherham United | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Colchester United | 5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 5 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 21 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | -4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 5 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 2 | 8.2 | -6.2 | +4 | -3.2 | +7.2 | 11 | 4.9 | +6.1 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 24 | Swindon Town | 5 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | -7 | -5.0 | -2.0 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
Barnet are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 20 goals from chances worth 15.1 xG, a gap of 4.9. Cheltenham Town are next on 4.5.
Port Vale are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 10.7 xG, a shortfall of 6.7. Exeter City are next on 5.7.
Barnet are the luckiest side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 18 points from performances worth 12.9 xPts, 5.1 more than their chances deserved. Rochdale are next on 4.6.
Oldham Athletic are the unluckiest side in League Two in 2026/2027, with 8 points from performances worth 12.7 xPts, 4.7 short of what they deserved. Chesterfield and Rotherham United are next on 4.6.
Chesterfield would be top of League Two in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 19.6 xPts from 22.0 xG created and 12.2 conceded across ten matches. Grimsby Town are next on 17.2.
Chesterfield have created the most xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 22.0 from ten matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Bristol Rovers are next on 18.4.
Northampton Town have created the least xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 6.1 from eight matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Rochdale are next on 9.1.
Swindon Town have conceded the most xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 18.0 from ten matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Cheltenham Town are next on 17.0.
Port Vale have conceded the least xG in League Two in 2026/2027, 7.7 from eight matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Northampton Town are next on 8.7.
League Two teams have averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 114 matches played, and have scored 1.24 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.35 xG a game in 2025/2026.
League Two teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.58 a game against 1.23 away, a home advantage of +0.35, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 10 | 17 | 22.0 | -5.0 | 14 | 12.2 | +1.8 | +3 | 9.8 | -6.8 | 15 | 19.6 | -4.6 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 13 | 18.2 | -5.2 | 11 | 13.1 | -2.1 | +2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 13 | 17.2 | -4.2 |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | 17 | 12.9 | +4.1 | -2 | 5.5 | -7.5 | 15 | 16.4 | -1.4 |
| 4 | York City | 9 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | +6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 15 | 16.2 | -1.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 15 | 12.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | +5 | 1.8 | +3.2 | 19 | 14.9 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Rotherham United | 10 | 12 | 14.6 | -2.6 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | -4 | 1.8 | -5.8 | 10 | 14.6 | -4.6 |
| 7 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 13 | 15.4 | -2.4 | 14 | 14.9 | -0.9 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 14.4 | -3.4 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 | -6 | 0.5 | -6.5 | 11 | 14.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | Newport County | 10 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | +1 | -0.7 | +1.7 | 13 | 14.1 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 12 | 13.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 12.8 | -5.8 | +5 | 0.4 | +4.6 | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 |
| 11 | Walsall | 9 | 12 | 15.2 | -3.2 | 6 | 13.6 | -7.6 | +6 | 1.6 | +4.4 | 15 | 13.5 | +1.5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 10 | 6 | 11.7 | -5.7 | 6 | 12.2 | -6.2 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 |
| 13 | Barnet | 8 | 20 | 15.1 | +4.9 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | +9 | 3.2 | +5.8 | 18 | 12.9 | +5.1 |
| 14 | Gillingham | 10 | 15 | 12.3 | +2.7 | 10 | 14.4 | -4.4 | +5 | -2.1 | +7.1 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 |
| 15 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 9 | 12.5 | -3.5 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 | -4 | 1.0 | -5.0 | 8 | 12.7 | -4.7 |
| 16 | Port Vale | 8 | 4 | 10.7 | -6.7 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | -5 | 3.0 | -8.0 | 8 | 12.4 | -4.4 |
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13 | 13.2 | -0.2 | 13 | 16.0 | -3.0 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 12 | 12.2 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Colchester United | 9 | 10 | 12.8 | -2.8 | 13 | 15.2 | -2.2 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 |
| 19 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 16.8 | -5.8 | -1 | -4.8 | +3.8 | 11 | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 16 | 11.5 | +4.5 | 16 | 17.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -5.4 | +5.4 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 8 | 12.6 | -4.6 | 15 | 16.6 | -1.6 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 9.5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Rochdale | 10 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 15.7 | -3.7 | -1 | -6.6 | +5.6 | 14 | 9.4 | +4.6 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| 24 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0 | -5 | -8.1 | +3.1 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 |