The Championship Season So Far: Every Team Ranked on the Numbers

Eight games into the Championship season is enough to stop calling things a small sample and start reading them. Below is the division ranked on what teams are actually doing rather than what the table has given them for it, with every figure taken from our Championship stats page, which covers league games only and updates as the season goes.

Two numbers frame the rest. Swansea City have taken 5.2 points more than their underlying numbers say they should have; Cardiff City have 7.1 fewer. That is the widest the table has been stretched in either direction.

The clearest single case is Cardiff City. They lead the Championship for shots at 18.5 a game and for shots inside the box at 12.63, and they are converting 6.8 per cent of them. They sit 21st.

Attacking threat

Ranked on the volume and the quality of what each side creates.

Cardiff City lead the Championship for shots at 18.5 a game, and take 12.63 of them inside the box. They are scoring 1.25 a game from that, a conversion rate of 6.8 per cent. That is the 24th best conversion rate of 24 teams, so the volume is not turning into goals.

West Ham United carve out 4.38 big chances a game, the most in the Championship, and convert 42.9 per cent of them. Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United leads the division's players with 7 big chances created.

West Ham United generate 2.34 expected goals a game and are scoring 2.75, which puts them 0.41 a game ahead of what their chances have been worth. Expected goals weight every shot by how often a chance of that type is scored, so it describes the quality of what a side is creating rather than how the finishing has gone.

Cardiff City win 7.88 corners a game. They also hit 28.88 crosses a game, 1st of 24 in the division, which is usually the same story told twice: sides that attack down the flanks force more of both.

Cardiff City take 12.63 shots inside the box a game, 68.2 per cent of their total. Shot location is the single biggest driver of chance quality, so this table tends to describe who is creating properly rather than shooting on sight.

Defending

Fewest is best in every table below.

Wolverhampton Wanderers concede the fewest shots in the Championship at 10.43 a game. Opponents are converting 13.7 per cent of them, which still leaves 1.43 goals against a game and a goals-conceded rank of 11th of 24 - a reminder that a good defence and a good goals-against column are not the same thing.

Wolverhampton Wanderers give up 0.99 expected goals a game, the best figure in the Championship. They are actually conceding 1.43, which is 0.44 a game more than the chances against them have been worth - the kind of gap that usually closes.

Queens Park Rangers concede 3.88 corners a game, fewest in the division and have kept 2 clean sheets in 8. Corners conceded is a decent proxy for how much sustained pressure a side absorbs.

West Ham United concede 1.38 big chances a game, and opponents are putting away 36.4 per cent of the ones they get. A big chance is one a striker is expected to score, so this is the table that matters most at the defensive end.

Wolverhampton Wanderers allow 6.71 shots inside their own box a game, and 64.4 per cent of the shots they face come from there. Keeping opponents outside the area is most of defending.

Possession and play style

How each side plays, rather than how well.

Swansea City play 537.13 passes a game at 82.6 per cent completion, with 59.8 per cent of the ball. Volume and possession usually travel together; completion rate is what separates keeping the ball from moving it forward.

Cardiff City hit 28.88 crosses a game, of which 6.13 find a teammate - an accuracy of 21.2 per cent. A high cross count with a low accuracy is often a side with no other way through.

Stoke City commit 15.38 fouls a game, the most in the Championship, and pick up 2.63 yellow cards a game for it. A high foul count usually means a side that presses hard or breaks play up deliberately. Freddie Draper of Lincoln City leads the division's players at 5.66 fouls per 90 minutes.

West Bromwich Albion make 18.88 tackles a game, and 26.88 tackles and interceptions combined. Ebou Adams of Portsmouth makes the most of any player in the division at 4.49 per 90 minutes.

The players

Minimum 270 minutes for the shooting and creating tables, so a player needs roughly three full games to appear.

Cyle Larin of Southampton leads the Championship with 7 goals from 33 shots, against an expected goals figure of 4.02 - 2.98 more than those chances were worth.

Rio Cardines of Bristol City leads for assists with 6, from 30 chances created and 5 of those big ones. Assists depend on someone else finishing, which is why chances created is the steadier measure of a creator.

Cyle Larin of Southampton has taken 33 shots, more than anyone in the Championship, hitting the target with 12 and scoring 7 - a conversion rate of 21.2 per cent.

Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United has created 7 big chances, the most in the Championship, which have so far produced 3 assists. The gap between those two numbers is finishing, not creation.

What the table is hiding

Expected points take every chance a side has created and conceded and ask what a league table would look like if those chances had been taken at an average rate. The gap between that and the real table is the part of the season that has not been earned - in either direction.

None of this says the over-performers are about to collapse or that the under-performers are about to win six in a row. Finishing is a real skill and some sides out-run their numbers for a whole season.

What we can say is what we have measured. Across 1,245 fixtures we tested both halves of this idea. Sides whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than the model rated them - a real, usable correction. Sides running the same distance behind beat their rating by only 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the tradeable half of this table is fading the teams it is flattering, not backing the ones it is punishing. That asymmetry is the single most useful thing on this page.

FAQs

Which Championship team creates the most chances? Cardiff City lead for shots at 18.5 a game and shots inside the box at 12.63. West Ham United lead for big chances created at 4.38 a game.

Which Championship team has the best defence? Wolverhampton Wanderers concede the fewest expected goals at 0.99 a game and the fewest shots at 10.43, after 8 games.

Who is the Championship top scorer this season? Cyle Larin of Southampton with 7 goals. Rio Cardines of Bristol City leads for assists with 6.

Which Championship teams are over-performing? Swansea City have 5.2 points more than their chances deserve; Cardiff City have 7.1 fewer. Our own testing says the tradeable side of that gap is fading the over-performers rather than backing the under-performers.