No, Watford have taken 8 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, within 1.02 of the 9.02 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Watford create 1.12 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 11.18 in all, and have scored 8 goals from those chances, 3.18 fewer than that xG would expect.
Watford allow 1.93 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 19.31 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 0.31 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Iker Bravo has the most expected goals (xG) for Watford over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 1.79 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Mamadou Doumbia is next with 1.46 xG.
Watford's results and their chances agree, within 1.0 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 11.18 | 8 | -3.18 | 19.31 | 19 | +0.31 | 9.02 | 8 | -1.02 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.16 | 4 | -1.16 | 10.15 | 13 | -2.85 | 3.85 | 3 | -0.85 |
| Home | 5 | 6.00 | 6 | 0.00 | 7.80 | 9 | -1.20 | 5.54 | 7 | +1.46 |
| Away | 5 | 5.18 | 2 | -3.18 | 11.51 | 10 | +1.51 | 3.48 | 1 | -2.48 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Cardiff (A) | 5-1 | 1.47 | 3.57 | 0.47 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Burnley (H) | 0-4 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 0.69 | 0 | L |
| 18 Sep | Championship | Bristol City (A) | 1-0 | 0.56 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Stoke (H) | 1-2 | 0.40 | 1.37 | 0.60 | 0 | L |
| 8 Sep | Championship | Preston (H) | 2-1 | 2.02 | 1.93 | 1.45 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | WBA (A) | 1-0 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.41 | 0 | W |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Swansea (A) | 2-0 | 1.11 | 3.03 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | West Ham (H) | 1-1 | 1.63 | 1.23 | 1.65 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Wrexham (A) | 1-1 | 0.59 | 1.94 | 0.51 | 1 | L |
| 16 Aug | Championship | S'oton (H) | 2-1 | 1.24 | 1.56 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amin Nabizada | attacker | 10 | 491 | 0.63 | 3 | +2.37 | 0.11 |
| Edo Kayembe | midfielder | 10 | 641 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.13 |
| Luca Kjerrumgaard | attacker | 8 | 375 | 1.13 | 1 | -0.13 | 0.27 |
| Hector Kyprianou | midfielder | 10 | 900 | 1.44 | 1 | -0.44 | 0.14 |
| Mamadou Doumbia | attacker | 10 | 592 | 1.46 | 1 | -0.46 | 0.22 |
| MartÃn Payero | midfielder | 7 | 315 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.14 |
| Iker Bravo | attacker | 10 | 670 | 1.79 | 1 | -0.79 | 0.24 |
| Othmane Maamma | attacker | 10 | 594 | 0.96 | 0 | -0.96 | 0.15 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |