No, Millwall have taken 14 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 2.18 fewer than the 16.18 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Millwall create 1.93 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 19.27 in all, and have scored 16 goals from those chances, 3.27 fewer than that xG would expect.
Millwall allow 1.44 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.37 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 1.63 more than that xGA would expect.
Lyndon Dykes has the most expected goals (xG) for Millwall over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 3.17 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Taïryk Arconte is next with 3.15 xG.
Millwall have taken 2.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -3.3 goals against their xG, and -1.6 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 19.27 | 16 | -3.27 | 14.37 | 16 | -1.63 | 16.18 | 14 | -2.18 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.63 | 6 | -2.63 | 7.57 | 8 | -0.43 | 7.54 | 5 | -2.54 |
| Home | 5 | 9.54 | 9 | -0.54 | 6.79 | 6 | +0.79 | 8.09 | 7 | -1.09 |
| Away | 5 | 9.73 | 7 | -2.73 | 7.58 | 10 | -2.42 | 8.09 | 7 | -1.09 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Swansea (H) | 0-1 | 1.26 | 1.85 | 1.01 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Preston (A) | 0-1 | 1.21 | 0.72 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | West Ham (H) | 2-2 | 2.77 | 1.90 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | Championship | M'Boro (A) | 2-2 | 1.34 | 1.70 | 1.14 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Blackburn (A) | 3-1 | 2.05 | 1.40 | 1.79 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Bolton (H) | 4-0 | 2.35 | 1.02 | 2.19 | 3 | W |
| 2 Sep | Championship | Wrexham (H) | 0-3 | 0.23 | 1.06 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | S'oton (A) | 5-1 | 1.72 | 3.32 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Norwich (H) | 3-0 | 2.93 | 0.96 | 2.45 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Bristol City (A) | 0-2 | 3.41 | 0.44 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camiel Neghli | attacker | 10 | 857 | 1.99 | 3 | +1.01 | 0.21 |
| Caleb Taylor | defender | 10 | 900 | 1.00 | 2 | +1.00 | 0.10 |
| Lyndon Dykes | attacker | 10 | 625 | 3.17 | 4 | +0.83 | 0.46 |
| Luke Cundle | midfielder | 7 | 124 | 0.68 | 1 | +0.32 | 0.50 |
| Mark Sykes | midfielder | 9 | 594 | 0.71 | 1 | +0.29 | 0.11 |
| Josh Coburn | attacker | 4 | 304 | 2.12 | 2 | -0.12 | 0.63 |
| Taïryk Arconte | attacker | 8 | 591 | 3.15 | 3 | -0.15 | 0.48 |
| J. Osei-Tutu | defender | 7 | 391 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.14 |
| Jenson Metcalfe | midfielder | 10 | 772 | 1.09 | 0 | -1.09 | 0.13 |
| Kyrell Lisbie | attacker | 6 | 340 | 2.17 | 0 | -2.17 | 0.57 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |