Every Barnet League Game Has Had Goals at Both Ends, and Other Reasons the EFL Column Is Back

The EFL column is back after a month off, and it owes you the numbers first. The last card, on 19 September, went one from six: three of its four over-2.5 bets finished on exactly two goals, Oxford drew with Cambridge, and the double went down with them. That leaves the column at -6.91pts after six editions on 1pt level stakes, and the running total goes in every week, up or down. The previous edition has the full list.

This weekend is eight singles and a double, picked from the acca sheet's model projections and checked against recent form, with every price from bet365 at the time of writing. The headline belongs to Barnet: all ten of their League Two games this season have had both teams scoring, and nine have gone over 2.5 goals.

Eight singles and a double, at a glance

Championship: West Ham keep scoring, Derby can't, and Cardiff haven't kept a clean sheet all season

West Ham United v Southampton, Saturday 3pm

West Ham United are second in the Championship standings on 22 points, and nobody scores like them: 30 goals in 11 games, 2.73 a game, the most in the division. Jarrod Bowen has had two or more shots in every one of those games, averaging four, and they've just won 1-0 at Swansea and 6-0 at Lincoln.

Southampton are eighth on 17 points and have kept three clean sheets in a row: a 0-0 with Bolton, a 1-0 at Norwich and a 1-0 against Portsmouth. That's a proper test, but West Ham's attack is the best in the league and our model has them at 55% to win.

The bet: West Ham United to win at 1.62. Full match stats here and the full preview.

Sheffield United v Derby County, Saturday 12:30

Derby County are 23rd of 24 with one win in 11 league games, 9 goals scored and 20 conceded, and they've lost their last two, 1-0 at home to Stoke and 4-1 at QPR. They score 0.82 a game, the 3rd fewest in the Championship.

Sheffield United are 11th on four wins, three draws and four defeats, nothing special, but they won 1-0 at Bristol City last Saturday and have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their league games, the 2nd highest rate in the division. Against a side this short of goals that's enough, and our model has the Blades at 48% to win.

The bet: Sheffield United to win at 1.76. Full match stats here and the full preview.

Cardiff City v Birmingham City, Saturday 3pm

Cardiff City haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their 13 games this season, and both teams have scored in nine of their 11 league games. They're 19th, but they do score: 5-1 against Watford earlier this month, and Ollie Tanner has had two or more shots in each of his last seven league games, 3.6 a game.

Birmingham City are 4th on 20 points and unbeaten in five, with a 4-0 win over Preston and a 3-0 win over QPR in that run. Their league games go over 2.5 goals 73% of the time, the 2nd highest rate in the Championship, and Jay Stansfield has had a shot in all 11. Our model puts three or more goals at 59%.

The bet: over 2.5 goals in Cardiff v Birmingham at 1.57. Full match stats here and the full preview. The Championship xG table and power rankings have the wider picture.

League One: Reading's goals, Stockport's winning run and a Wimbledon side that can't find a shot

Reading v Barnsley, Saturday 3pm

Reading are 6th with 23 goals in 11 games, 2.09 a game and joint-top in League One, and Lewis Wing has had two or more shots in all 11 of them, 2.6 a game. They won 1-0 against Orient in midweek, lost 1-0 at Wigan the Saturday before and had put five past MK Dons the week before that.

Barnsley are 22nd with two wins in ten league games and haven't won in their last seven in any competition, the latest a 2-1 defeat at Luton in midweek. They concede 1.9 a game, the 3rd most in League One, and Reading are 57% to win in our model.

The bet: Reading to win at 1.53. Full match stats here.

Notts County v Stockport County, Saturday 3pm

Stockport County lead League One with 22 points from 11 games and haven't lost in five, winning four of them: 2-0 at Doncaster in midweek, 1-0 against Bromley, 3-1 against Barnsley and 1-0 against Peterborough. Kyle Wootton has had a shot on target in seven straight league games.

Notts County are 18th on 10 points from ten games, scoring a goal a game, and they followed a 2-0 defeat at Wycombe with a 2-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday in midweek. Their 3 shots on target a game is the 4th fewest in the division, and our model makes Stockport 53% to win.

The bet: Stockport County to win at 1.53. Full match stats here.

AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe Wanderers, Saturday 3pm

AFC Wimbledon have scored seven goals in 11 league games, 0.64 a game and the fewest in League One, and their 2.55 shots on target a game is the fewest too. They lost 0-3 to Mansfield in midweek and 5-0 at Sheffield Wednesday the Saturday before.

Wycombe Wanderers are 15th, but they've scored in each of their last five games, and Jayden Wareham has had a shot in seven straight league games, 3.1 a game. Our model makes Wycombe 50% to win.

The bet: Wycombe Wanderers to win at 1.81. Full match stats here. The League One player stats and power rankings sit behind these calls.

League Two: Barnet's goal glut and a Chesterfield side that out-shoots everyone

Chesterfield v Crewe Alexandra, Saturday 3pm

Crewe Alexandra are 3rd on five wins, six draws and one defeat, which is the case against this pick, and that defeat was a 2-0 at Exeter in midweek. Chesterfield are 9th, but nobody in League Two puts the ball on target more: 6 shots on target a game, the most in the division, and Louie Marsh has had two or more shots in nine straight league games, 3.9 a game.

Crewe manage 3.5 shots on target a game, the 7th fewest, and our model has Chesterfield at 57% to win at home.

The bet: Chesterfield to win at 1.61. Full match stats here.

Barnet v Oldham Athletic, Saturday 3pm

Here's where the headline comes from. Barnet, 2nd in League Two, have scored 23 and conceded 15 in ten league games, every one of them with both teams scoring and nine of them over 2.5 goals. Charlie Lakin has had two or more shots in six straight league games, 3.3 a game, and the latest match was Tuesday's 3-1 home defeat to Swindon.

Oldham Athletic are 21st, lost 3-0 at Walsall in midweek and concede 1.55 a game, the 5th most in the division. They did win 4-1 against Cheltenham the Saturday before, and our model puts three or more goals at 62%.

The bet: over 2.5 goals in Barnet v Oldham at 1.65. Full match stats here. The League Two xG table shows how the division is shaping up.

The Weekend Double: Reading to win and goals at Barnet

Reading to win (1.53) and over 2.5 goals in Barnet v Oldham (1.65) multiply to 2.52, around 6/4 with bet365 at the time of writing. They're the strongest of our League One and League Two calls and neither match depends on the other. The same prices and form are on the acca sheet, and the Daily Acca has the day's slips.

The Saturday bet builders cover the Premier League card.

Champions League tickets

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. These are match statistics, not settled bets. Odds are bet365 prices correct at the time of writing and move.