West Ham United host Southampton at the London Stadium on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and it pairs the division's best attack with one of its best defences. West Ham sit 2nd on 22 points from 11 games, with 30 goals scored. Southampton are 8th on 17 points and have conceded just 10, the 2nd fewest in the Championship.
West Ham have lost only once in 11 league games, and their only defeat in their last ten matches in all competitions was a 3-2 Carabao Cup loss to Fulham in mid-September. Since then they have drawn 2-2 at Millwall and 1-1 at home to QPR, then won 6-0 at Lincoln and 1-0 at Swansea. They average 2.73 goals a game, the most in the division, and their 6.18 shots on target a game is also the most. Defensively they have conceded 1.09 a game, the 4th fewest, and they have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate.
Southampton have won six, drawn three and lost two of their 11, and the last two league results were a 1-0 win at Norwich and a 0-0 draw with Bolton. Before that came a 1-0 home win over Portsmouth, a 2-1 defeat at Wrexham and a 4-1 win over Bristol City. They score 1.91 a game, the 3rd most, and concede 0.91 a game. Both teams have scored in 73% of their games, the 5th highest rate in the league.
Neither side commits many fouls. Southampton's 8.55 a game is the fewest in the Championship and West Ham's 9.91 is the 6th fewest.
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Hermansen; Veltman, Mavropanos, Kilman, Morato; Bowen, Engels, Kanté, Mukasa, Solomon; Castellanos
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Peretz; Bree, Stephens, Schlotterbeck, Welington; Ward-Prowse, Bragg, Matsuki; Azaz, Scienza, Dobbin
Jarrod Bowen has had 2+ shots in all 11 games this season, averaging 4 a game. He is 1.13 at Coral for 2+ shots. He has also had 2+ shots on target in his last three, and that is 2.60 at Coral.
Finn Azaz has had a shot in every one of Southampton's 11 games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.18 at bet365 to do it again.
Konstantinos Mavropanos has made a tackle in ten straight games, 1.6 a game. Keven Schlotterbeck has had a shot in four in a row for Southampton and is 2.05 at Ladbrokes for a shot.
We make West Ham the favourites at 55% to win, and they are 1.70 at Ladbrokes. The draw is 4.20 at Ladbrokes and Southampton are 4.50 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.50 at bet365, and over 2.5 goals is also 1.50 there.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham United win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 55% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Southampton win | 4.50 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 64% |
We project 2.05 goals for West Ham and 1.23 for Southampton. The likeliest single scoreline is 1-1, with 2-1 only a fraction behind it, though we make West Ham the likelier winners. Our prediction is West Ham United 1-1 Southampton.
We give both teams to score a 62% chance and over 2.5 goals 64%. Both teams have scored in 64% of West Ham's games and 73% of Southampton's, and 73% of West Ham's games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in the Championship.