Luton Town welcome Doncaster Rovers to Kenilworth Road on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 19:45 UK.
Luton have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of their games, the highest rate in the division, while Doncaster have done it in 36%, the 3rd lowest, and concede 1.18 a game, the 9th fewest. We make Luton 58% to win, though 1-1 is the single likeliest score.
Luton Town sit 10th in League One with 17 points from 11 games, five wins, two draws and four defeats, and a goal record of 21 scored and 19 conceded. They have won their last two, beating Leicester 2-1 on Saturday and Barnsley 2-1 last Tuesday. Before that came a 2-1 defeat at MK Dons and a 4-1 win at Wycombe. The hosts score 1.91 a game, the 4th most, and have 5.09 shots on target a game, the 5th most, though they also concede 1.73 a game, the 6th most in the division. Both teams have scored in 82% of Luton's matches, the 3rd highest rate.
Doncaster Rovers are 17th with 12 points from 11, three wins, three draws and five defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 13. They won 2-0 against Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but lost 2-0 to Stockport four days earlier. Before that they lost 2-1 at Leicester and beat Burton 1-0, with a 2-0 win at Peterborough the game before that. Their strength is at the back: they have kept a clean sheet in 36% of games, the 5th highest rate, and they concede 1.18 a game, the 9th fewest. Goals are the problem, as they average 1.09 a game, the 9th fewest, and put 3.64 shots on target a game, the 8th fewest.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Jones, Andersen, Johnston, Naismith; Walsh, Clark; Mendel-Idowu, Palmer, Donley; Wells
Doncaster Rovers possible starting lineup:
Simkin; Grehan, Byrne, Senior; Gotts, Broadbent, Bailey, McCann; Ayinde, May; Hanlan
Jordan Clark has had a shot in seven straight games for Luton, averaging 2.1 a game, and he is 1.05 at midnite to make it eight. Centre-back Mads Juel Andersen has registered a shot in six in a row at 1.3 a game, and is 1.5 at midnite to extend it.
Tudor Mendel-Idowu has shot in four straight, averaging 2.3 a game across the run, and is 1.03 at midnite for a fifth. In the middle, Liam Walsh has made a tackle in four in a row at 2.5 a game.
For Doncaster, Robbie Gotts has made at least one tackle in 11 straight games, at 1.5 a game, and Leon Ayinde has committed a foul in six straight.
We make Luton the favourites, and the best price on them is 1.50 at midnite, with the draw at 4.33 and Doncaster at 5.50, both at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.62 and over 2.5 goals is 1.53, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Luton Town to win | 1.50 (midnite) | 58% |
| Draw | 4.33 (bet365) | 23% |
| Doncaster Rovers to win | 5.50 (bet365) | 19% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
Our model has Luton scoring 1.94 goals to Doncaster's 1.04. Luton to keep a clean sheet is 35% likely, against 14% for the visitors. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Luton clear favourites to win the game, and 2-1 and 2-0 are not far behind. Our prediction is Luton Town 1-1 Doncaster Rovers.