Barnet and York City, 2nd and 5th in League Two, meet at The Hive Stadium on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 19:45. Barnet have 22 points from 11 games and York have 20 from 12.
Barnet have scored 2.18 goals a game, the most in the division, and every one of their league games has seen both sides score. York have conceded 1.08 a game, the 5th fewest in the league. We make both teams to score 66% likely.
Barnet have won three of their last five in the league but not either of the last two. They drew 1-1 at home to Oldham on Saturday in their latest result, four days after a 3-1 home defeat to Swindon. Before that came two away wins: 2-1 at Tranmere and 3-1 at Bristol Rovers. They have six wins, four draws and one defeat in 11, with 24 scored and 16 conceded.
Their shots on target average of 4.82 is the 4th most in the league, and they win the most corners in League Two at 7.27 a game. They have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
York have not lost in five. They beat Port Vale 2-0 on Saturday, after a 1-1 draw with Accrington, a 1-1 draw at Newport and a 1-1 draw with Northampton. Back before that was a 3-0 win over Gillingham. They sit on five wins, five draws and two defeats from 12, scoring 21 and conceding 13.
York are the 3rd highest scorers in the league at 1.75 a game, and they commit the fewest fouls in League Two at 8.75 a game. They also pick up the 2nd fewest cards.
Barnet possible starting lineup:
Cox; Senior, Collinge, Williams, Crichlow; Gallagher, Comley; Knowles, Lakin, Kanu; Tshimanga
York City possible starting lineup:
McNally; Fallowfield, Johnson, Kitching; Felix, Hunt, Boyes, Banks; Grey, Newby, Pearce
Joe Grey has had at least one shot in 11 straight games, averaging two a game, and he is 1.10 with midnite to make it 12. His team-mate Ollie Banks has registered a shot in nine straight, 1.17 at midnite.
For Barnet, Kabongo Tshimanga has a shot on target in five consecutive games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.25 at midnite to extend that. He has also had a shot in each of those five, 2.8 a game.
Charlie Lakin has had three or more shots in each of his last three, averaging 4.3 in that run, and is 1.44 at midnite for another. OisÃn Gallagher has had two or more shots in four straight, averaging 3.3, and is 1.53 at midnite. He has also made at least one tackle in all 11 of his games this season, an average of 2.1.
We back Barnet at 2.01 with bet365. We make them 42% to win, with York at 34% and the draw at 24%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet to win | 2.01 (bet365) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.80 (midnite) | 24% |
| York City to win | 3.20 (bet365) | 34% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 64% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Barnet more likely to win overall at 42%, against 34% for York. 2-1 to the hosts is next at 9%. We project 1.74 goals for Barnet and 1.54 for York. Every Barnet league game this season has seen both teams score, and 82% have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the division.