Sheffield United against Derby County at Bramall Lane kicks off at 12:30 UK on Saturday 24 October, and the table has the hosts well ahead. The Blades are 11th on 15 points from 11 games. Derby are 23rd of 24 with six points, one win and seven defeats, and they have scored 9 goals while letting in 20.
Derby's attack is the thing to look at. They average 0.82 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the division, and they arrive off a 1-0 home loss to Stoke. United have the 2nd highest clean-sheet rate in the league, so goals for the visitors will not come easily.
Sheffield United have won two and lost three of their last five. The latest was a 1-0 win at Bristol City, which followed a 3-2 defeat at Portsmouth and a 3-0 home win over Lincoln. Their record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 15 goals scored and 14 conceded.
The goals numbers are modest at 1.36 a game, the 12th fewest in the league, but they concede just 1.27, the 7th fewest. They get through little in front of goal: 3.27 shots on target a game is the 4th fewest, and their 3.27 corners are the fewest of any side. Our projection still gives them 1.62 goals and 5.15 shots on target on Saturday.
Derby have lost their last two and three of their last five. Their 0-1 home loss to Stoke came three days after a 4-1 defeat at QPR. Before that they drew 1-1 with Wrexham and 1-1 at Burnley, the only points in their last five. They concede 1.82 a game, the 4th most in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their matches.
Derby also give the referee work. Their fouls average 12.27, the 4th most, and their cards run at 2.36 a game, the 5th most.
Sheffield United possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Tanganga, McGuinness, Kitching, Burrows; Arblaster, Phillips; Chong, Ayew, Brereton DÃaz; Cannon
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Vickers; Ward, Nyambe, Sanderson, Hedges; Ozoh, Clark; Fuseini, Szmodics, Brewster; Morris
Tom Cannon has had a shot in six straight games and averages 2.7 a match. He is 1.04 at bet365 for another, and Derby concede 1.82 a game.
Liam Kitching has made a tackle in seven straight games and committed a foul in six, averaging 2.3 tackles and 1.5 fouls. A foul is 1.40 at Midnite.
Bobby Clark has had two or more shots in five straight games, averaging 3.2, and 2+ shots is 2.00 at Coral.
David Ozoh has made a tackle in seven straight games, averaging 3.1, and has committed two or more fouls in each of his last four at 2.3 a game. Two fouls is 1.67 at Midnite.
Carlton Morris leads the line for Derby and has had a shot in four of his last five, with 1.4 a game. A shot is 1.20 at bet365.
We back Sheffield United to win, and Coral have them at 1.85. Our model gives them a 48% chance of winning, with the draw at 26% and Derby at 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United win | 1.85 (Coral) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Coral) | 26% |
| Derby County win | 4.33 (bet365) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 77% |
Our prediction is Sheffield United 1-1 Derby County. A draw is in play, but we make United slightly more likely to win, with 2-1 and 1-0 the next likeliest scores. Both teams to score comes in at 55% and we put the chance of a goalless draw at around 7%.
United keep a clean sheet in our projection about 32% of the time, against just 20% for Derby. For the player markets, Mark McGuinness is 1.83 for a shot and Harrison Burrows is 1.36.