Saturday Bet Builders: Haaland at Villa Park, a 3pm Four-Fold and Chelsea v Spurs at 5:30
Saturday's Premier League card runs from a 12:30 kick-off to Chelsea against Spurs at 5:30, and the bets follow it: a same-game builder for the lunchtime game, a four-fold across the two games at three, a builder for the evening game and, with no Premier League at eight, one from La Liga. Every leg is a single-player line at 1+ or 2+ and every player is in our predicted XI. Prices are bet365's at the time of writing, and the team sheets land about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place anything.
The model numbers come from our projections, the hit rates from the Player Props board, and each match page has the rest. Last weekend's fouls bet builder used the same board.
12:30: Aston Villa v Manchester City, 3.26
Villa v City is the day's one standalone Premier League kick-off, and our model makes Manchester City 56% to win, with Aston Villa on 21%. It has City on 1.9 goals to Villa's 1.1, so Erling Haaland leads the slip. He has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.17 to do it again, the shortest price on the card. On the Villa side, Nicolas Jackson has hit the target in all five of his last five, and Ian Maatsen and Alysson have each had a shot in four of five. The preview has the team news.
Aston Villa v Manchester City
Four legs, one match. bet365 prices at the time of writing
| Player | Line | Last five | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 1+ shots on target | 4 from 5 | 1.17 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 1+ shots on target | 5 from 5 | 1.44 |
| Ian Maatsen | 1+ shots | 4 from 5 | 1.50 |
| Alysson | 1+ shots | 4 from 5 | 1.29 |
| Legs multiplied | 3.26 |
3pm: the Arsenal and Coventry four-fold, 3.30
There are two Premier League games at three, so the afternoon bet is a four-fold with two legs from each. Arsenal v Everton first: our model has Arsenal at 69%, which makes Everton the side doing the defending. James Tarkowski has made a tackle in all of his last five and is 1.20 for another, and Thierno Barry has had two or more shots in each of the same five at 1.44.
At Coventry v Fulham the model leans 42% to Fulham with Coventry on 32%. Calvin Bassey has tackled in all five of his last games at 1.25, and Rodrigo Muniz has had three or more shots in four of five at 1.53. Arsenal v Everton has a full preview and so does Coventry v Fulham.
The 3pm four-fold
Two legs from each of the afternoon's Premier League games
| Player | Line | Last five | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Tarkowski | 1+ tackles | 5 from 5 | 1.20 |
| Thierno Barry | 2+ shots | 5 from 5 | 1.44 |
| Calvin Bassey | 1+ tackles | 5 from 5 | 1.25 |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 3+ shots | 4 from 5 | 1.53 |
| Legs multiplied | 3.30 |
5:30pm: Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur, 4.15
Chelsea v Spurs is a game the model gives to Chelsea at 56%, with a draw at 23% and Tottenham on 21%. Three of the four legs are Spurs players, which fits a side expected to spend a lot of the game defending: Micky van de Ven has made a tackle in all of his last five, Archie Gray has made two or more tackles in each of his last five, and Sandro Tonali has had a shot in all five. The exception is Moisés Caicedo, who has had a shot in each of his last five for Chelsea. The preview goes through the match.
Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
Four legs, one match
| Player | Line | Last five | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandro Tonali | 1+ shots | 5 from 5 | 1.40 |
| Moisés Caicedo | 1+ shots | 5 from 5 | 1.50 |
| Micky van de Ven | 1+ tackles | 5 from 5 | 1.22 |
| Archie Gray | 2+ tackles | 5 from 5 | 1.62 |
| Legs multiplied | 4.15 |
8pm: Atlético Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña, 3.81
There's no Premier League game at eight, so the evening slot goes to La Liga. Atlético v Deportivo has a clear favourite: our model has Atlético at 68%, and the home win is 1.27. Jonathan David has hit the target in four of his last five and Dávid Hancko has had a shot in four of five, while Ademola Lookman has committed a foul in four of five. On the Deportivo side Mario Soriano has had a shot in all five of his last five. The preview has the rest.
Atlético Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña
Four legs, one match
| Player | Line | Last five | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan David | 1+ shots on target | 4 from 5 | 1.30 |
| Mario Soriano | 1+ shots | 5 from 5 | 1.53 |
| Dávid Hancko | 1+ shots | 4 from 5 | 1.44 |
| Ademola Lookman | 1+ fouls | 4 from 5 | 1.33 |
| Legs multiplied | 3.81 |
The honest bit
A hit rate describes what has happened and doesn't forecast anything: these are last-five records, so five games is the sample for every leg, and 9 of the sixteen legs are 5 from 5. Prices multiply across the legs, but the bookmaker's own same-game price will be a little shorter than the product because the legs in one match are linked, so check the slip's price before you place it. Every leg assumes the player starts. Most bookmakers void a player leg if he takes no part and reprice what's left, though the terms vary and are worth reading. More bets are on the Bet Builder Tips page and in the bet builder tool, and the day's Daily Acca sits alongside these.
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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. These are match statistics, not settled bets. Odds are bet365 prices correct at the time of writing and move.