Coventry City host Fulham at The Coventry Building Society Arena on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and both sides come in looking up at safety. Coventry are 17th in the Premier League on 6 points, with Fulham one place below them on 5. A win for either side lifts them clear of the other.
The home side have been hard to read lately. They put four past Newcastle, then lost 3-1 at Spurs on Monday. Fulham are the steadier of the two, with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five, the latest a 1-0 win over Hull.
Coventry have won two of their seven league games and lost five, scoring 6 and conceding 14. Their 0.86 goals per game is the 4th fewest in the division, while their 2.00 conceded is the 5th most. They also sit second-lowest for shots on target at 3.29 a game.
The recent run is a story of extremes. They lost 0-5 to Brighton and 3-1 to Villa in the Carabao Cup, won 1-0 at Forest and beat Newcastle 4-1 at home, then went down 3-1 at Spurs on Monday. Only 29% of their games have seen both teams score, the 3rd lowest rate around.
Fulham have one win, two draws and four defeats, with 7 scored and 10 conceded. They are tougher to break down than their position suggests: their 1.43 goals against is the 10th fewest, and they've kept a clean sheet in 29% of games, the 7th highest rate. They also win the 2nd most corners at 6.14 a game.
Their last five read 0-0 at Liverpool, a 3-2 Carabao Cup win at West Ham, a 1-1 draw with Man Utd, a 2-1 loss at Ipswich and then the 1-0 home win over Hull on Saturday.
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Rushworth; van Ewijk, Pinnock, Thomas, Dasilva; Grimes, Yirenkyi; Rudoni, Sakamoto, Thomas-Asante; Chérif
Fulham possible starting lineup:
Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Iwobi; Charles, Bobb; GarcÃa, Muniz
Jack Rudoni has had a shot in all seven of Coventry's league games, the longest such run in the division, and he is 1.17 at bet365 to make it eight.
Gonzalo GarcÃa has also shot in seven straight, and he averages 2.7 a game. The Fulham striker is 1.03 at bet365 for a shot, so the angle is higher up his shot count.
Antonee Robinson has made two or more tackles in six straight games, averaging 2.5, the longest run of its kind in the league. The left-back is 1.53 at bet365 to do it again.
Calvin Bassey has made two or more tackles in each of his last three league games and averages 3 a game. The centre-half is 1.25 at bet365 for a single tackle, and 1.83 for two or more.
Brandon Thomas-Asante has had a shot in four straight games and two or more tackles in his last three. The Coventry forward pays 3.00 at bet365 for two tackles again.
We back Fulham to win, and they are 2.20 at bet365. Coventry are 3.25 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 at Coral. Both teams to score is 1.62 at Midnite and over 2.5 goals is 1.73 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry City win | 3.25 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Coral) | 26% |
| Fulham win | 2.20 (bet365) | 42% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 52% |
We expect 1-1, a draw is clearly in play, though we make Fulham the likelier winners. Our model projects 1.28 goals for Coventry and 1.49 for Fulham, with Fulham slightly ahead on shots too, at 14.1 to 12.7.
Statz prediction: Coventry City 1-1 Fulham.