Atlético Madrid host Deportivo La Coruña at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. Atlético sit 2nd in La Liga on 22 points from nine games, while Deportivo are 9th on 11 and have drawn five of their nine.
Atlético have conceded the 2nd fewest goals in the division, and Deportivo have not kept a clean sheet in La Liga this season, a rate of 0% that is the 2nd lowest in the league.
Atlético Madrid have won seven of their nine league games and lost just once, scoring 19 and conceding 8. They've scored the 3rd most goals per game in the league and put the 3rd most shots on target. Their games have gone over 2.5 goals in 78% of cases, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
Atlético beat Manchester United 2-0 in the Champions League at home, then won 1-0 at Espanyol in La Liga, and on Tuesday drew 1-1 at Stuttgart. Before that came a 2-1 win at Alaves and a 2-1 home win over Real Madrid.
Deportivo La Coruña have won two, drawn five and lost two. They've scored 13 and let in 12, and 89% of their games have seen both teams score, the highest rate in La Liga. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Levante, which followed a 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad. Before that they drew 1-1 with Betis at home, lost 1-0 to Sevilla and drew 1-1 at Getafe. They have drawn three of their last five and lost the other two, each by a single goal, and they have scored more than once in only one of those five.
Deportivo's shots on target sit at 4.33 a game, the 10th fewest, against Atlético's 6.44. Our projection has Atlético on 6.76 shots on target and Deportivo on 2.99.
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Baena; Lookman, David
Deportivo La Coruña possible starting lineup:
Román; Navarro, Giménez, Noubi, Quagliata; Villares, Amatucci, Cruz; Soriano, Hernández, Nsongo Tonfack
Jonathan David has had a shot on target in five straight La Liga games, a run that ranks 1st in the league, and he's averaging 1.8 a game across it. He is 1.30 at bet365 to get a shot on target again.
Álex Baena has had at least one shot in seven straight games, at 2.7 a game, and he has also got on target in his last four. He is 1.06 at bet365 for a shot and 1.50 for one on target.
Alejandro Grimaldo has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.1. Dávid Hancko has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.44 at bet365 to have at least one.
For Deportivo, Lorenzo Amatucci has tackled in seven straight games at 2.9 a game and has committed a foul in five in a row. A foul is 1.07 at bet365. Mario Soriano has had a shot in each of his last five, and two or more in three on the spin, with 2+ shots at 3.40 at bet365.
We back Atlético Madrid to win, and they are 1.27 at bet365. The draw is 6.00 at Coral and Deportivo are 11.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 1.27 (bet365) | 68% |
| Draw | 6.00 (Coral) | 20% |
| Deportivo La Coruña win | 11.00 (bet365) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (bet365) | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 54% |
We project 2.10 goals for Atlético and 0.76 for Deportivo. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0, at about 13%, with 1-0 just behind it, so our prediction is Atlético Madrid 2-0 Deportivo La Coruña. Atlético keep a clean sheet in 47% of our simulations. A draw is in play at about 20%, with 1-1 the third most likely scoreline.
Over 2.5 goals comes out at 54% in our projection. Deportivo's games have gone over 2.5 in 33% of cases, the 5th lowest rate in the league, while Atlético have kept clean sheets in 44% of theirs. In the player markets, David and Baena both arrive on shot runs, Hancko has had a shot in four of his last five, and Soriano has had a shot in five straight for Deportivo.