Aston Villa host Manchester City at Villa Park on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK. It is a lunchtime meeting between the league leaders, who have won all seven of their games, and a side in 12th who have taken eight points from seven. Villa arrive on a run of wins, and City have lost only once in their last ten, a 2-4 defeat to PSG in the Champions League.
Our model has City as clear favourites, with a draw still in play, and the shooting numbers on both sides point to the player markets.
Manchester City sit 1st in the Premier League table with 21 points from seven games, 19 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their last ten across all competitions reads nine wins and one defeat, and the defeat was a 2-4 loss to PSG in the Champions League. They bounced back with a 5-1 win over AEK Athens, and in the league they edged Ipswich 3-2 and won 3-0 at Liverpool. They average 2.71 goals a game, the 2nd most in the division, and rank 3rd for shots on target at 5.29 per game. Seven in ten of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate around.
Aston Villa are 12th with two wins, two draws and three defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their league goals tell a modest story, 1 per game being the 6th fewest, and their 3.14 shots on target a game are the fewest in the league. Across all competitions, though, they have won four of their last five. They beat Newcastle 1-0 away, thrashed Fenerbahçe 6-0, drew 2-2 with Brentford and beat Viking 3-1 in midweek. They have also kept a clean sheet in 29% of their league games, the 7th highest rate.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Mings, Maatsen; Kamara, Gomes; BuendÃa, Alysson, Mbaye; Jackson
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; Bouaddi, Fernández; Foden, Ndiaye, Doku; Haaland
Erling Haaland has had a shot on target in each of City's seven league games and at least two shots in every one of them, averaging 3.9 shots a game. He is 1.20 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Nicolas Jackson leads the Villa line and has had a shot on target in all of his last five, 3, 1, 3, 2 and 1. He is 1.48 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
Boubacar Kamara has made at least one tackle in all seven league games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.07 at bet365 to extend the run.
Enzo Fernández has had a shot in five straight and a shot on target in four straight, and is 1.75 at Ladbrokes for another on target.
Rúben Dias has committed two or more fouls in three games running and is 4.50 at Ladbrokes to make it four.
We back Manchester City to win, at 1.67 with Ladbrokes, and make them 56% to do it. Villa are 5.00 at bet365 and we give them 21%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 5.00 (bet365) | 21% |
| Draw | 4.33 (bet365) | 23% |
| Manchester City win | 1.67 (Ladbrokes) | 56% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 58% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the single likeliest scoreline, though we make City clearly more likely to win the game. 1-2 is a point behind it, and a draw is in play for a Villa side that has been winning at home and in Europe.
We project City for 1.9 goals and Villa for 1.1, with both teams scoring in 57% of simulations. On the player side, Haaland's shot-on-target run and Jackson's five-game streak are the clearest angles. In the fouls market, our model rates Marc Guéhi highly for two or more fouls at 4.00 and Tyrone Mings for one or more at 1.83.