Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:30 UK, and the table says this should be one-way traffic. Chelsea are 4th on 13 points from seven games. Spurs are 16th on six, with one win to their name.
The gap shows up in the goals, too. Chelsea have scored 17 in seven league games, while Spurs have managed six. Chelsea's attack has been the more productive by a distance, and this fixture arrives with the home side as clear favourites.
Chelsea sit 4th in the Premier League table with four wins, a draw and two defeats. They won 2-0 at Everton last time out in a result that followed a 5-1 home win over Bournemouth. Before that came a 3-0 loss at Brentford and a 2-2 draw with Hull at the Bridge, so the form has swung around, but the ceiling is high.
They average 2.43 goals a game, the 3rd most in the division, and their 5.57 shots on target a game is the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 71% of their matches, the highest rate in the league, and 86% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, also the highest. Their defence is the soft spot: 1.86 conceded a game is the 7th most. They commit just 9.29 fouls a game, the 2nd fewest.
Tottenham Hotspur come in off a 3-1 win over Coventry on Monday, and before that a 1-1 draw at Manchester United. That ended a run of two defeats, to Aston Villa in the league and Liverpool in the Carabao Cup, and a goalless draw with Everton sits just before those. They score 0.86 a game, the 4th fewest, and put up 3.86 shots on target a game, the 7th fewest.
There is some resilience at the back. Spurs have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their games, the 7th highest rate, and they concede 1.43 a game. They also lead the league for corners at 6.57 a game, and they commit 13.71 fouls a game, the 4th most.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Penders; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Henderson; Neto, Palmer, Rogers; João Pedro
Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup:
Kinský; Van de Ven, Adarabioyo, Van Hecke, Robertson; Tonali, Gray; Kudus, Maddison, Marmoush; Solanke
Morgan Rogers has had two or more shots in seven straight league games, averaging 2.7, and is 1.25 at Ladbrokes to make it eight. João Pedro has had at least one shot in six in a row at 2.7 a game, and Pedro Neto has had a shot on target in four straight, 1.73 at Ladbrokes.
For Spurs, Jan Paul van Hecke has committed a foul and made a tackle in each of seven straight games. He averages 1.4 fouls and 2.0 tackles, and a foul is 1.48 at Ladbrokes. Archie Gray has made two or more tackles in four in a row, averaging 2.3, and that is 1.62 at bet365. Sandro Tonali has had a shot in four straight at 2.0 a game, priced at 1.44 with Ladbrokes.
We back Chelsea to win at 1.70 with bet365. Our model gives them a 56% chance, with the draw at 23% and Spurs at 21%. Both teams to score is 1.57 at Ladbrokes and over 2.5 goals is 1.53 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 1.70 (bet365) | 56% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Tottenham Hotspur win | 4.50 (bet365) | 21% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (Ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 59% |
We expect 1.93 goals from Chelsea against 1.11 from Spurs. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 11%, so that is our prediction, though we make Chelsea 56% to win the match, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind at 10% and 9%.
Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 33% of our simulations, and Spurs in 15%.