Arsenal welcome Everton to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. It is 2nd against 8th in the Premier League table, and it pairs the league's meanest defence with a side that has only won two of its seven.
Arsenal have 18 points from seven games, six wins and one defeat. Everton have 10, built on two wins, four draws and a loss. We make the hosts clear favourites, and the more interesting questions are whether Everton can get on the scoresheet at all and which players keep their runs going.
Arsenal have won eight and drawn one of their last ten across all competitions, the draw a 2-2 at Bayern on Wednesday. Before that they took a 1-0 win at Forest and beat Lille 3-0 in the Champions League. A 2-1 win over Leeds sits just before that, and the only recent blip was a 3-0 loss at Brighton in September.
The defensive numbers are the story. Arsenal concede 0.71 goals a game, the fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their matches, the 2nd highest. Their goals record is 11 scored and five conceded from seven, and at 1.57 a game they are the 5th most prolific side in the league. Only 29% of their games have seen both teams score, the 3rd lowest.
Everton come in on the back of a 0-2 home defeat to Chelsea last Saturday. Before that they drew 2-2 at Hull, beat Ipswich 1-0 in the league and Wolves 1-0 in the Carabao Cup, and held Spurs to a goalless draw.
They are hard to beat rather than hard to watch. Everton concede 1.00 a game, the 4th fewest, and have kept clean sheets in 43% of their matches, the 3rd highest. They rank 5th for shots on target at five a game, but score only 1.14 per match, and just 29% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; White, Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori; Rice, Bruno Guimarães; Madueke, Ødegaard, Eze; Havertz
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Branthwaite, Tarkowski, Mykolenko; Garner, Armstrong; Röhl, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry
Thierno Barry is the busiest forward in the league. He has had three or more shots in six straight games, the longest such run in the competition, and averages 3.8 a game over that spell. He has also put at least one shot on target in four in a row. Ladbrokes offer 2.70 on three or more shots again.
Kai Havertz has had two or more shots in each of his last five and is 1.20 at bet365 to make it six.
James Tarkowski has made at least one tackle in seven straight games and averages two a match. With Arsenal likely to dominate the ball, the Everton centre-back should have plenty to do and is 1.20 to add to the run.
Declan Rice has committed a foul in each of his last three and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again. Ezri Konsa is 1.73 for one or more fouls.
We back Arsenal to win, and the best price on the home side is 1.44 at Ladbrokes. The model gives them a 68% chance of the win, with the draw at 21% and an Everton win at 11%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 68% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 21% |
| Everton win | 8.00 (bet365) | 11% |
| Both teams to score | 2.05 (bet365) | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 47% |
Our projection is Arsenal 1.93 goals to Everton 0.61, and the model makes Arsenal clean-sheet favourites at 54%. The likeliest score is 1-0 at 15%, with 2-0 almost level with it at 15%, so a narrow win and a comfortable one are about equally likely. A draw is in play too, with 1-1 at 10%.
The goal markets lean towards a tight game. Over 2.5 is a shade under even, and a clean sheet for Arsenal is slightly more likely than not. For the bets that suit this game we would look at the player markets above, and at Everton's Barry for shots in particular.
Statz prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Everton.