Cardiff City host Birmingham City at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 3pm UK. It's 19th against 4th in the Championship table, with Birmingham on 20 points from 11 games and Cardiff on 11. Birmingham have won their last three without conceding, while Cardiff have scored 18 goals and conceded 17.
Our model makes Birmingham City the favourites at 42%, with Cardiff on 32% and the draw on 26%. We give both teams to score a 62% chance.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last five and have won four of them. They won 2-1 at Derby, drew 2-2 with M'Boro, then won 1-0 at West Brom before beating Preston 4-0 and QPR 3-0 last time out. That is eight goals scored and none conceded across the last three. Across the season they've kept a clean sheet in 36% of games, the 2nd highest in the division, and they've conceded the 3rd fewest goals per game. They score 1.82 goals a game, the 4th most in the league, and their games go over 2.5 goals 73% of the time, the 2nd highest.
Cardiff have won two of their 11, drawn five and lost four, with two wins, two defeats and a draw in their last five. The most recent was a 2-2 draw at M'Boro, which came after a 5-1 win over Watford and a 2-1 defeat at Blackburn. They also beat Charlton 3-1 at home in September.
Cardiff's games are open. They score 1.64 goals a game, the 6th most, and both teams have scored in 82% of their matches (the 2nd highest), and they have not kept a clean sheet all season. Their shots on target rank 3rd most in the league and they win more corners per game than any other side.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Trott; Kpakio, Fish, Bielik, Bagan; Robertson, Colwill; Tanner, Willock, Moylan; Ashford
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Iwata, SolÃs; Roberts, Stansfield, Millar; Priske
Jay Stansfield has had at least one shot in all 11 of Birmingham's games this season, averaging 2.3 a game, and he's 1.08 at bet365 to extend the run. Alongside him, August Priske has had two or more shots in five straight, averaging three a game, and is 1.50 at bet365.
In midfield, Tomoki Iwata has had a shot in eight in a row and is 1.44 at bet365 to make it nine. He has also committed a foul in six straight games.
For Cardiff, Ollie Tanner has had two or more shots in seven straight games at 3.6 a game, and he is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again.
Birmingham's Christoph Klarer has committed a foul in eight straight games, and Midnite offer 1.44 on him doing so again. He averages two a game.
We back Birmingham City to win, and the bookmakers agree: Ladbrokes have them at 2.45, with Cardiff 2.70 at Midnite and the draw 3.75 at Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City win | 2.70 (midnite) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 26% |
| Birmingham City win | 2.45 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 59% |
We expect 1.65 goals from Birmingham and 1.41 from Cardiff. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Birmingham the more likely winners at 42%, and 1-2 comes next at 9%, then 2-1 at 8%. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw.
One bet builder idea from the shot and foul runs is Iwata to have a shot, Tanner two or more shots, and Klarer and SolÃs to each commit a foul. All four have hit in each of their last five games.