Nine From Nine and 4.33 Goals a Game: Barcelona Host Real Madrid, and We're Backing Them

The European column is back after a month off, with the numbers first. The last card, on 19 September, went two from five: Sevilla v Barcelona (1-3) and Osasuna v Rayo (1-1) both had goals at each end, but Venezia lost 0-2 to Lazio, Juventus beat Atalanta 2-0 to finish one goal short of the over, and the double went down with Venezia. That leaves the column at -10.17pts after three editions on 1pt level stakes, five winners from 19 bets, and the running total goes in every week, up or down. The previous edition has the full list.

This weekend is six singles and a double from La Liga and Serie A, built from the acca sheet's projections and checked against form, with every price from bet365 at the time of writing. Atlético (1.27), Inter (1.36) and Lazio (1.36) are too short to be column bets, which leaves the Clásico to headline: Barcelona have won nine from nine in the league and are scoring 4.33 a game. The La Liga season preview and Serie A season preview have the standing storylines.

Six singles and a double, at a glance

La Liga: Barcelona's goals, a Sociedad side in form and a Racing defence with no clean sheets

Racing Santander v Espanyol, Saturday 3:15pm

Racing Santander have conceded 25 goals in nine league games, 2.78 a game and the most in La Liga, and haven't kept a clean sheet. Seven of those nine games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in the division, and after a 2-2 draw with Valencia they lost 2-0 at Osasuna last weekend. They're 17th on eight points.

Espanyol are 16th, also on eight, and Roberto Fernández has had two or more shots in nine straight league games, 2.4 a game. They lost 1-0 to Atlético a week ago and drew 1-1 at Málaga before that. Our model puts three or more goals at 61%.

The bet: over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Espanyol at 1.67. Full match stats here and the full preview.

FC Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday 8pm

FC Barcelona have won all nine of their league games and scored 39 goals doing it, 4.33 a game, the most in La Liga, with 8.44 shots on target a game, also the most. Lamine Yamal has had three or more shots in eight straight league games, averaging 5.8. They lost 4-2 at PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday, the only defeat in their last ten games in any competition.

Real Madrid are 3rd on 21 points, seven wins and two defeats, and Kylian Mbappé has had a shot in nine straight league games, 5.4 a game. They've won their last four in all competitions, including 4-1 against RB Leipzig on Wednesday, and they concede a goal a game, the 3rd fewest. We still make Barcelona 58% to win at home.

The bet: FC Barcelona to win at 1.62. Full match stats here.

Real Sociedad v Levante, Sunday 5:30pm

Real Sociedad are 5th on 16 points and the goals are flowing: a 6-0 win at Lillestrøm in the Europa League on Thursday and a 5-2 win at Málaga in La Liga before that. Their league games go over 2.5 goals 78% of the time, the 2nd highest rate, and Ander Barrenetxea has had a shot in six straight.

Levante are 11th, with two wins, four draws and three defeats, and they beat Athletic Club 3-1 on Wednesday, but they concede 1.89 a game, the 7th most in La Liga. Our model makes Sociedad 56% to win.

The bet: Real Sociedad to win at 1.65. Full match stats here. The La Liga xG table and power rankings sit behind these calls.

Serie A: Como at home, Milan at struggling Udinese and a Cagliari game that won't open up

Como v Sassuolo, Saturday 2pm

Como are 5th on 14 points and arrive after a 4-1 win over Manchester United in the Champions League on Wednesday and a 3-1 win at Fiorentina before it. They average 6.86 shots on target a game, the 2nd most in Serie A, and Nico Paz has had three or more shots in seven straight league games, five a game.

Sassuolo are 13th on eight points and concede two a game, the 5th most. Both teams have scored in all seven of their league games and 86% have gone over 2.5 goals, so Como should score and the question is whether the visitors can keep up. Our model has Como at 63%.

The bet: Como to win at 1.50. Full match stats here and the full preview.

Cagliari v Bologna, Saturday 2pm

Cagliari are 7th on 13 points and score 0.86 a game, the 5th fewest in Serie A. Just 29% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd lowest rate, and they concede one a game, the 3rd fewest. They'd won three of four before a 4-0 defeat at Monza last Sunday.

Bologna are 15th on five points, with one win in seven, and they score 0.86 a game too. They lost 3-1 to Inter last Saturday after a 2-1 win at Lecce. Our model puts under 2.5 goals at 64%.

The bet: under 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Bologna at 1.67. Full match stats here and the full preview.

Udinese v AC Milan, Sunday 7:45pm

AC Milan are unbeaten in Serie A, four wins and three draws with 14 scored and 7 conceded, 4th on 15 points. A 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth in the Europa League on Thursday is the only loss in their last five, which also holds a 4-0 win at Salzburg and a 3-2 win over Atalanta.

Udinese are 16th with four points from seven games, one win and five defeats. They've conceded 16, 2.29 a game and the 3rd most, haven't kept a clean sheet in the league, and lost 3-0 at home to Lecce last Sunday. Our model has Milan at 54% to win.

The bet: AC Milan to win at 1.70. Full match stats here. The Serie A xG table and player stats have more.

The Weekend Double: goals in La Liga, no goals in Serie A

Over 2.5 goals in Racing v Espanyol (1.67) and under 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Bologna (1.67) multiply to 2.79, around 9/5 with bet365 at the time of writing. They're the strongest calls on the La Liga and Serie A cards, one for each league, and the two matches have nothing to do with each other. The day's Daily Acca has the other slips, and the Saturday bet builders cover Atlético v Deportivo at 8pm.

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. These are match statistics, not settled bets. Odds are bet365 prices correct at the time of writing and move.