Racing Santander host Espanyol at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 15:15 UK. The two sides are locked together on 8 points from 9 games, with Racing in 17th and Espanyol one place above them in 16th. The difference between them is at the back: Racing have shipped 25 goals, while Espanyol have conceded 12.
Both clubs lost their last league game, and neither has won in La Liga since 12 September.
Racing Santander have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 5, and the recent run has been poor. They went down 2-0 at Osasuna last Sunday, and a 2-2 draw with Valencia the weekend before was the only point they picked up from their last four. Before that came a 5-0 defeat at Celta and a 7-2 loss at Barcelona. The win in that spell was 2-1 against Alaves in mid-September.
At 2.78 conceded per game, Racing have the most goals against in the division, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Yet they score too: 1.44 a game is the 8th most in the league, both teams have scored in 67% of their matches, and 78% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in La Liga. They also commit the 6th most fouls and collect the 4th most cards.
Espanyol are on the same record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, but their games have been tighter. They lost 1-0 to Atlético last Saturday, and a 1-1 draw at Málaga came before that. Before the draw came a home defeat to Elche (3-1), a defeat at Rayo (2-1) and a 2-0 win at Osasuna.
Espanyol's 1.33 goals against per game is the 8th fewest, and they have kept a clean sheet in 22% of games. They have the most fouls per game in La Liga at 16.22, the 3rd most cards, and just 2.33 corners a game, the fewest in La Liga. They have scored 11 goals, 1.22 a game and the 8th fewest, and average 3.67 shots on target a game, the 5th fewest.
Racing Santander possible starting lineup:
Agirrezabala; Mantilla, Ramón, Belocian, Salinas; Almeida, Martín, Prati; Canales, Vicente; Zabiri
Espanyol possible starting lineup:
Fortuño; El Hilali, Riedel, Taillandier, Drkusic; Hinojo, Lozano, Expósito; Hernández, Zaragoza; Fernández
Roberto Fernández has had at least two shots in nine straight games for Espanyol, averaging 2.4 a match. He is 1.36 at Ladbrokes to make it ten.
Yassir Zabiri has had a shot in seven consecutive games for Racing and averages 2.6 a match. He is 1.02 at bet365 to have one again.
Álvaro Mantilla is Racing's right-back and has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.6, and bet365 have him at 1.10 to extend it.
André Almeida has made two or more tackles in three games running, and in four of his last five. He is 1.40 at bet365 to make two or more again.
Both sides give away plenty of fouls, with Espanyol committing the most in La Liga and Racing the 6th most. Iván Martín has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.29 at bet365 to commit one.
We back Racing Santander, who are 2.40 at Coral to win, with Espanyol 2.88 at bet365 and the draw 3.75 at Midnite. Both teams to score is 1.53 at bet365, and over 2.5 goals is 1.67.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander win | 2.40 (Coral) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Midnite) | 25% |
| Espanyol win | 2.88 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 61% |
Our model expects 1.71 goals from Racing and 1.45 from Espanyol. Both teams have scored in six of the nine league games for each side. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Racing slightly more likely to win, and a draw is in play.
On the player markets, Fernández at 1.36 for two or more shots has the longest run in the fixture at nine games, with Mantilla at 1.10 and Almeida at 1.40 for tackles on runs of eight and three. For a player-market builder we would look at Fernández (2+ shots), Almeida (2+ tackles), Canales (1+ foul) and Martín (1+ foul).
Prediction: Racing Santander 1-1 Espanyol.