Como welcome Sassuolo to the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 2pm UK, with the home side in 5th place and fresh from a 4-1 win over Man Utd in the Champions League. Sassuolo sit 13th: they have scored as many as Como this season, 12 each, but conceded twice as many, 14 to 7.
Every Sassuolo game this season has seen both sides score. Our model gives Como a 63% chance of winning and this match a 56% chance of both sides scoring.
Como have 14 points from 7 games, with 4 wins, 2 draws and a single defeat, and a goal difference of +5. Their latest results: the 4-1 win over Man Utd in the Champions League on Wednesday, a 3-1 win at Fiorentina on 18 October, a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord in the Champions League, a goalless draw with Roma, and a 2-0 loss at Frosinone in September.
Como's shots on target average 6.86 a game, the 2nd most in the league, and their corners come in at 7.29, also the 2nd most. At the back they concede 1 a game, the 3rd fewest. They also commit few fouls, 8.43 a game, the 2nd fewest in Serie A.
Sassuolo have 8 points from 7, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. They come in on a 4-2 defeat at Frosinone on 16 October, after a 1-1 draw with AC Milan, a 2-1 loss at Monza, a 3-2 win over Juventus and a 2-2 draw at Bologna.
Both sides average 1.71 goals a game, the 7th most, but Sassuolo concede 2 a game, the 5th most. They have not kept a clean sheet all season, and 86% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest in the division. Their shots on target sit at 6.43 a game, the 3rd most.
Como possible starting lineup:
Butez; Yan Couto, Kempf, Jacobo Ramón, Kaiki; Perrone, Caqueret, Da Cunha; Paz, Baturina, Douvikas
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Murić; Cinquegrano, Caleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig; Matic, Thorstvedt, Adžić; Berardi, Laurienté, Esposito
Nico Paz has had 3 or more shots in each of his 7 games this season, averaging 5 a game, the best such run in Serie A. He is 1.18 at Ladbrokes to keep it going.
Anastasios Douvikas has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.25 with bet365 to do it again.
Domenico Berardi has had at least one shot in six straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.13 with bet365 to have another. He has also made a tackle in six in a row.
Kristian Thorstvedt has had a shot on target in three straight and is 2.63 at bet365 to make it four. Vasilije Adžić also has a six-game shot run for the visitors, averaging 2 a game.
We back Como to win, at 1.53 with Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.57 with bet365, and every Sassuolo game this season has seen both sides score.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Como win | 1.53 (Ladbrokes) | 63% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 21% |
| Sassuolo win | 5.75 (Midnite) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
Our projection has Como scoring 2.16 goals to Sassuolo's 0.99. That makes Como 2-0 Sassuolo our predicted score at 10%, with 2-1 and 1-1 almost level with it. We give Como a 63% chance of winning, against 21% for a draw. Como have 20.84 shots projected to Sassuolo's 10.77, and 7.18 shots on target to 3.77.
In the player markets, Nico Paz has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, at 1.14 with bet365, and Domenico Berardi has had a shot on target in four of his last five, at 1.67 with bet365.