Cagliari host Bologna at the Sardegna Arena on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 2pm UK. Cagliari sit 7th on 13 points and Bologna are 15th on 5, but our model makes the visitors the more likely winners. Cagliari were beaten 4-0 at Monza on Monday.
Cagliari's seven games have brought four wins, a draw and two defeats, with six goals scored and seven conceded. The back line has done the work: they have conceded the 3rd fewest goals per game in Serie A and kept a clean sheet in 43% of matches, the 3rd highest rate. Their 7th place in the table was built on 1-0 wins at home to Lecce and away at Udinese, plus a 2-1 win at Atalanta. A 1-1 draw with Juventus at home followed, and then the 4-0 loss at Monza.
The attack is the weak point. At 0.86 goals a game they have the 5th fewest in the league, and their shots on target sit at 4 a game, the 6th fewest. Both teams scoring has happened in only 29% of their games, the 3rd lowest rate in the division.
Bologna have won once all season, with two draws and four defeats, and have scored six and let in ten. They were beaten 3-1 at home by Inter last time out, but the game before that brought a 2-1 win at Lecce. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Torino and a 1-0 defeat at Napoli. They score at the same 0.86 a game as Cagliari and have not kept a clean sheet yet.
Bologna are also a physical side. Their fouls average of 12.71 a game is the 3rd most in Serie A, and their 2 cards a game is also the 3rd most.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Caprile; Zé Pedro, Mina, Obert, RodrÃguez; Adopo, Winks, Romano; Maldini, Mendy, Fadera
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Darmian, Casale, Theate; Zortea, Pobega, Ferguson, Miranda; Bernardeschi, Cambiaghi, Enem
Alessandro Romano has had at least one shot in all seven of Cagliari's games, averaging 1.4 a match, the 4th best run in the division. He is 1.33 at Ladbrokes to make it eight.
Paul Mendy has committed two or more fouls in each of his last five, averaging 2.2, and that run ranks 1st in Serie A. He is 1.44 at bet365 to go again.
Tommaso Pobega has had a shot in six straight for Bologna and has made three or more tackles in his last three. The shots market is 1.25 at Ladbrokes and the tackles are 2.00 at bet365.
Lewis Ferguson has fouled at least once in all seven Bologna games, averaging 2.1, and is 1.17 at Midnite.
Juan Miranda has made two or more tackles in four in a row and averages 2.8 a game. He is 1.62 at bet365.
Bologna are the bookmakers' favourites at 2.50 with Midnite, with a Cagliari win at 3.20 with bet365 and the draw at 3.20 with Ladbrokes, and we also make Bologna the more likely winner, though not by much. Federico Bernardeschi has had a shot on target in four of his last five games and is 1.53 with Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 3.20 (bet365) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.20 (Ladbrokes) | 31% |
| Bologna win | 2.50 (Midnite) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 (bet365) | 36% |
We expect 1-1, the likeliest score at 14%, though we make Bologna the more likely winner at 39%, against 30% for Cagliari. A draw is firmly in play, and 0-0 and 0-1 are only a point or two behind. Cagliari have the 2nd lowest rate of over 2.5 goals in the league at 29%, and our model puts this game at 36% for three or more.