Salford City are five points clear at the top of League Two, on 31 points from 14 games. They lost their first three and have won ten of the eleven since. Barnet are second on 26 with a game fewer played, Walsall and Crewe Alexandra follow on 22.
That raises the question every fan asks at an international break: are Salford really the best team in the division? On the chances they create and allow, they are not. They have 9.7 points more than their football deserved, the widest gap in League Two, and the best numbers belong to Chesterfield, who are 10th, and Grimsby Town, who are sixth.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate. Every figure comes from our League Two stats, xG table and standings, league games only, and six clubs have played 12 or 13 games rather than 14. The every-team lists are in The League Two Season So Far.
In table order, league games only. Barnet and Walsall have played 13. Exp is expected points
| Club | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 31 | 21.3 | +9.7 |
| Barnet | 26 | 21.3 | +4.7 |
| Walsall | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 |
| Crewe Alexandra | 22 | 18.6 | +3.4 |
| Cheltenham Town | 21 | 15.0 | +6.0 |
Between them the five have 26.8 points more than their chances deserved. Barnet are the most convincing: they have scored more goals than anyone (28) from the third-highest expected goals, though they are the only club in the division without a clean sheet. Walsall are third on the back of their goalkeeper. Crewe Alexandra are fourth with a goal difference of exactly zero, and Cheltenham Town are fifth on minus two.
Salford City lost their first three league games: 3-1 at Barnet, 1-0 at home to Chesterfield and 1-0 at Shrewsbury Town. Since then they have won ten and drawn one (3-3 at Rotherham United), including each of the last five.
Seven of the ten wins were by a single goal, the most in League Two, where no one else has more than four. In two of them the other side had the better of the chances: the 1-0 over Port Vale on 5 September (0.4 expected goals to 0.8) and the 2-1 win at Bristol Rovers on 20 October (1.2 to 1.6). In our October xG table, after eight games, they were 2.1 points ahead of their chances. The gap has more than quadrupled since.
It comes from the attack: 25 goals from chances worth 18.9. The defence is genuine, with 15 conceded from 15.8 allowed, the fewest big chances against in the division (1.0 a game) and the lowest share of shots conceded from inside the box (56.1%). Luke Molyneux and Kallum Cesay have six assists each, level with Harry Boyes of York City at the top of League Two.
That is a good side that has won the close ones: five clubs have more expected points than Salford's 21.3, and Barnet are level, so on the numbers they are a strong team, not a runaway leader.
Chesterfield are 10th on 19 points, with five wins, four draws and five defeats. Their chances are worth 26.4 expected points, the most in the division.
They had the better of the chances in 10 of their 14 games and won five. They lost their first game of the season at home to Fleetwood Town with 2.5 expected goals to 1.5, and in their last two outings beat Crewe Alexandra 5-1 and lost 4-1 at Newport County. The reason is at both ends: 24 goals from chances worth 27.7, and 21 conceded from chances worth 15.7, a swing of nine goals. Lee Bonis has four goals from chances worth 6.8, and Louie Marsh, 22, has taken 37 shots in 11 games.
Games in which the club created more expected goals than its opponent, league only
| Club | Pos | Pts | Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby Town | 6th | 20 | 12 of 14 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 15th | 18 | 11 of 14 |
| York City | 7th | 20 | 11 of 14 |
| Chesterfield | 10th | 19 | 10 of 14 |
Grimsby Town show it is not a one-club quirk. They have had the better of the chances in 12 of 14 games, the most in the division, and lead League Two for expected goals (28.2) and big chances created (3.9 a game). Their 24.7 expected points are second only to Chesterfield's, yet they are sixth with five wins. Shrewsbury Town, 15th, have lost four games in which they had the better of the chances, more than anyone.
Walsall have conceded 12 goals in 13 games from chances worth 21.6, and face more shots than any other side (16.5 a game). The reason is Jed Ward: 53 saves against 12 goals conceded and six clean sheets, second only to Exeter City.
Goals conceded against expected goals against. Plus means fewer conceded than expected
| Club | Conc | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 12 | 21.6 | +9.6 |
| Swindon Town | 17 | 25.5 | +8.5 |
| Exeter City | 9 | 16.8 | +7.8 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 22 | 15.7 | -6.3 |
| Chesterfield | 21 | 15.7 | -5.3 |
| Rotherham United | 25 | 20.1 | -4.9 |
Exeter City are a smaller version: Jack Bycroft has seven clean sheets, the most in the division, but they have scored just 11, so 19 points and 12th place are about right. At Swindon Town, Connor Ripley has made 67 saves, more than any goalkeeper in League Two, behind the defence that allows the most expected goals (25.5). The bottom three rows of the table show the reverse.
Walsall and Swindon are the only two clubs running more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances, with Salford just under. Over 1,245 fixtures, clubs in that position went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Clubs running behind by the same margin gained 0.8, which is noise. It is a lean, not a forecast.
Exp is expected points. Crawley have played 12, Northampton and Colchester 13
| Club | Position | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 20th | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 |
| Northampton Town | 21st | 14 | 17.1 | -3.1 |
| Rotherham United | 22nd | 12 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| Colchester United | 23rd | 12 | 16.6 | -4.6 |
| Crawley Town | 24th | 9 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
Two go down. Rochdale are 20th on 15 points, three above the drop, and they are the club the football likes least. They have the lowest expected points in the division (12.4) and the lowest expected goals (13.3), concede 2.9 big chances a game, the second most, and have had the better of the chances in only two of 14 games. They lost 5-0 at home to Accrington Stanley on 24 October and 4-2 at Port Vale a week later.
Crawley Town are bottom on nine points from 12 games and the numbers agree: they allow the most big chances and the most expected goals a game. Rotherham United, 22nd on 12, are the other way. Their chances are worth 18.0 expected points, 15th best, and they have won four penalties, the most in the division, yet have won only two of their 14 games. As above, being unlucky is no promise of a recovery.
Charlie McCann is a 24-year-old defensive midfielder with nine goals, joint second in League Two, from chances worth 3.7. That is 5.4 more than expected, and Cheltenham as a club are 6.2 goals above their own chances. They take the fewest shots in the division (8.8 a game), convert 18.7% of them, nearly four points better than anyone, and have had the better of the chances in four of 14 games. They have won six. They also topped our October xG table for over-performance (+5.4 after eight games) and are second now (+6.0).
Kabongo Tshimanga is the sturdier scorer. He has 10 goals, the most in League Two, from chances worth 7.0, the second-highest total in the division, plus five assists, so he has had a hand in 15 of Barnet's 28 goals. Aaron Pressley of Walsall has nine from chances worth 8.3, the most of any player, so he is scoring almost exactly what the chances say.
League games only
| Player | Club | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kabongo Tshimanga | Barnet | 10 goals |
| Charlie McCann | Cheltenham Town | 9 goals |
| Aaron Pressley | Walsall | 9 goals |
| Harry Boyes | York City | 6 assists |
| Tom Sang | Shrewsbury Town | 41 chances created |
| Calum Kavanagh | Oldham Athletic | 49 shots |
The full lists, including who creates and who shoots most, are on the player stats page.
Accrington Stanley commit the most fouls in League Two (14.5 a game) and Shrewsbury Town collect the most yellow cards (2.7 a game). Clinton Mola of Bristol Rovers has committed 33 fouls, more than any player, ahead of Oldham's Mike Fondop (30) and Mola's team-mate Shaqai Forde (29). The most fouled are Exeter City's C. Cummins (37) and Crewe's Josh March (35). J. Tomkinson of Cheltenham has the most yellow cards (7).
For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list, and the team pages show the rest: Accrington fouls, Shrewsbury yellow cards, Rotherham penalties. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
Three things to look for when League Two returns. First, whether Salford City keep winning the close ones. Second, whether Chesterfield and Grimsby Town turn the better of the chances into wins. Third, the play-offs: eleven clubs from third to 13th are separated by three points, and Gillingham are eighth on 20, level with the sixth and seventh. The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game.
No: Salford City are top of League Two on 31 points after 14 games, but their chances are worth 21.3 expected points, 9.7 fewer, and Chesterfield (26.4) and Grimsby Town (24.7) rank higher on the numbers.
Salford City are top of League Two on 31 points after 14 games, five clear of Barnet on 26 with a game fewer played. Walsall and Crewe Alexandra have 22 and Cheltenham Town 21. The top three go up automatically, with fourth to seventh in the play-offs.
Kabongo Tshimanga of Barnet is the League Two top scorer with 10 goals in 13 appearances, ahead of Charlie McCann of Cheltenham Town and Aaron Pressley of Walsall on 9. Tshimanga also has 5 assists.
Salford City are the most flattered League Two team, 9.7 points above expected, then Cheltenham Town (+6.0), Swindon Town (+5.5) and Barnet (+4.7). Across 1,245 fixtures, flattered sides then won 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them.