No, Liverpool have taken 30 points over their last 20 Premier League games, within 0.09 of the 30.09 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Liverpool create 1.66 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 33.19 in all, and have scored 31 goals from those chances, 2.19 fewer than that xG would expect.
Liverpool allow 1.43 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 28.57 in all, and have conceded 27 goals from those chances, 1.57 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Cody Gakpo has the most expected goals (xG) for Liverpool over their last 20 Premier League games, 3.88 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Alexander Isak is next with 3.56 xG.
Liverpool's results and their chances agree, within 0.1 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 33.19 | 31 | -2.19 | 28.57 | 27 | +1.57 | 30.09 | 30 | -0.09 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 16.13 | 13 | -3.13 | 14.68 | 16 | -1.32 | 14.54 | 11 | -3.54 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.85 | 5 | -1.85 | 6.40 | 5 | +1.40 | 7.20 | 8 | +0.80 |
| Home | 10 | 15.44 | 16 | +0.56 | 14.25 | 13 | +1.25 | 14.67 | 14 | -0.67 |
| Away | 10 | 17.75 | 15 | -2.75 | 14.32 | 14 | +0.32 | 15.42 | 16 | +0.58 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Premier League | Man City (H) | 0-3 | 1.27 | 1.06 | 1.51 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 0-1 | 1.55 | 1.13 | 1.66 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Premier League | Fulham (H) | 0-0 | 1.45 | 0.77 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 4 Sep | Premier League | Ipswich (A) | 0-2 | 0.71 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Premier League | Forest (H) | 2-2 | 1.87 | 2.41 | 1.10 | 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | Premier League | Newcastle (A) | 2-2 | 3.64 | 1.27 | 2.49 | 1 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 1-1 | 2.81 | 1.38 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 15 May | Premier League | Villa (A) | 4-2 | 1.12 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Premier League | Chelsea (H) | 1-1 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 1.42 | 1 | D |
| 3 May | Premier League | Man Utd (A) | 3-2 | 1.14 | 3.22 | 0.42 | 0 | L |
| 25 Apr | Premier League | Palace (H) | 3-1 | 0.90 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 3 | L |
| 19 Apr | Premier League | Everton (A) | 1-2 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | Premier League | Fulham (H) | 2-0 | 1.79 | 1.43 | 1.61 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 2-1 | 0.87 | 2.28 | 0.56 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Premier League | Spurs (H) | 1-1 | 1.66 | 0.92 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| 3 Mar | Premier League | Wolves (A) | 2-1 | 2.93 | 0.28 | 2.77 | 0 | W |
| 28 Feb | Premier League | West Ham (H) | 5-2 | 2.07 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Premier League | Forest (A) | 0-1 | 1.89 | 1.21 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 11 Feb | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 0-1 | 2.90 | 0.84 | 2.50 | 3 | W |
| 8 Feb | Premier League | Man City (H) | 1-2 | 1.05 | 2.74 | 0.51 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk | defender | 20 | 1800 | 3.16 | 5 | +1.84 | 0.16 |
| Alexander Isak | attacker | 9 | 610 | 3.56 | 5 | +1.44 | 0.52 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | midfielder | 18 | 1611 | 2.81 | 4 | +1.19 | 0.16 |
| Milos Kerkez | defender | 17 | 1103 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.02 |
| VÃctor Muñoz | attacker | 6 | 349 | 0.67 | 1 | +0.33 | 0.17 |
| Andrew Robertson | defender | 10 | 631 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.10 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | midfielder | 20 | 1310 | 0.83 | 1 | +0.17 | 0.06 |
| Mohamed Salah | attacker | 11 | 792 | 2.89 | 3 | +0.11 | 0.33 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | midfielder | 20 | 1506 | 2.33 | 2 | -0.33 | 0.14 |
| Rio Ngumoha | attacker | 15 | 590 | 1.36 | 1 | -0.36 | 0.21 |
| Cody Gakpo | attacker | 19 | 1531 | 3.88 | 3 | -0.88 | 0.23 |
| Curtis Jones | midfielder | 13 | 853 | 2.35 | 1 | -1.35 | 0.25 |
| Hugo Ekitiké | attacker | 7 | 468 | 2.39 | 1 | -1.39 | 0.46 |
| Florian Wirtz | midfielder | 16 | 1177 | 3.51 | 1 | -2.51 | 0.27 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |