No, Newcastle have taken 24 points over their last 20 Premier League games, within 1.45 of the 22.55 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Newcastle create 1.48 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 29.64 in all, and have scored 30 goals from those chances, 0.36 more than that xG would expect.
Newcastle allow 1.92 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 38.33 in all, and have conceded 35 goals from those chances, 3.33 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Yoane Wissa has the most expected goals (xG) for Newcastle over their last 20 Premier League games, 3.48 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Harvey Barnes is next with 3.41 xG.
Newcastle's results and their chances agree, within 1.5 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 29.64 | 30 | +0.36 | 38.33 | 35 | +3.33 | 22.55 | 24 | +1.45 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.02 | 17 | +3.98 | 17.76 | 18 | -0.24 | 10.98 | 15 | +4.02 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.22 | 8 | +1.78 | 7.97 | 11 | -3.03 | 5.60 | 7 | +1.40 |
| Home | 10 | 17.40 | 20 | +2.60 | 20.93 | 18 | +2.93 | 12.19 | 14 | +1.81 |
| Away | 10 | 12.24 | 10 | -2.24 | 17.40 | 17 | +0.40 | 10.36 | 10 | -0.36 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Premier League | Coventry (A) | 4-1 | 2.27 | 1.69 | 1.73 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | Premier League | Hull (H) | 2-1 | 1.43 | 1.74 | 1.18 | 3 | L |
| 14 Sep | Premier League | Leeds (A) | 4-1 | 0.79 | 1.90 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | Premier League | B'mouth (H) | 2-2 | 0.79 | 1.36 | 0.93 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | Premier League | Spurs (A) | 0-2 | 0.94 | 1.28 | 1.10 | 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | Premier League | Liverpool (H) | 2-2 | 1.27 | 3.64 | 0.37 | 1 | L |
| 24 May | Premier League | Fulham (A) | 2-0 | 0.39 | 1.73 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Premier League | West Ham (H) | 3-1 | 1.59 | 1.42 | 1.49 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Premier League | Forest (A) | 1-1 | 1.30 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 2 May | Premier League | Brighton (H) | 3-1 | 2.25 | 1.49 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Premier League | Arsenal (A) | 1-0 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 1.31 | 0 | D |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | B'mouth (H) | 1-2 | 1.91 | 3.25 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Premier League | Palace (A) | 2-1 | 1.20 | 2.74 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Premier League | Sunderland (H) | 1-2 | 1.36 | 2.78 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Premier League | Chelsea (A) | 0-1 | 0.85 | 1.94 | 0.69 | 3 | L |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Man Utd (H) | 2-1 | 2.67 | 1.31 | 2.15 | 3 | W |
| 28 Feb | Premier League | Everton (H) | 2-3 | 1.22 | 2.07 | 0.87 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Man City (A) | 2-1 | 0.85 | 1.86 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| 10 Feb | Premier League | Spurs (A) | 1-2 | 2.83 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 7 Feb | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 2-3 | 2.91 | 1.87 | 1.94 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Osula | attacker | 15 | 660 | 2.96 | 6 | +3.04 | 0.40 |
| Jacob Ramsey | midfielder | 17 | 876 | 1.09 | 3 | +1.91 | 0.11 |
| Lewis Hall | defender | 19 | 1509 | 0.89 | 2 | +1.11 | 0.05 |
| Anthony Elanga | attacker | 15 | 746 | 0.95 | 2 | +1.05 | 0.11 |
| Joe Willock | midfielder | 17 | 1011 | 2.30 | 3 | +0.70 | 0.21 |
| Sven Botman | defender | 18 | 1495 | 1.43 | 2 | +0.57 | 0.09 |
| Nick Woltemade | attacker | 13 | 551 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.13 |
| Dan Burn | defender | 14 | 852 | 0.91 | 1 | +0.09 | 0.10 |
| Jacob Murphy | attacker | 20 | 830 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.10 |
| Anthony Gordon | attacker | 7 | 587 | 3.10 | 3 | -0.10 | 0.48 |
| Harvey Barnes | attacker | 20 | 1299 | 3.41 | 3 | -0.41 | 0.24 |
| Bruno Guimarães | midfielder | 8 | 619 | 1.46 | 1 | -0.46 | 0.21 |
| Joelinton | midfielder | 9 | 618 | 0.51 | 0 | -0.51 | 0.07 |
| Malick Thiaw | defender | 20 | 1746 | 3.35 | 1 | -2.35 | 0.17 |
| Yoane Wissa | attacker | 15 | 696 | 3.48 | 1 | -2.48 | 0.45 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |