Yes, Man Utd have taken 36 points over their last 20 Premier League games, 5.17 more than the 30.83 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Man Utd create 1.75 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 34.91 in all, and have scored 34 goals from those chances, 0.91 fewer than that xG would expect.
Man Utd allow 1.36 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 27.20 in all, and have conceded 23 goals from those chances, 4.20 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Bryan Mbeumo has the most expected goals (xG) for Man Utd over their last 20 Premier League games, 7.32 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Bruno Fernandes is next with 6.23 xG.
Man Utd have taken 5.2 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: -0.9 goals against their xG, and +4.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 34.91 | 34 | -0.91 | 27.20 | 23 | +4.20 | 30.83 | 36 | +5.17 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 20.48 | 18 | -2.48 | 12.34 | 13 | -0.66 | 17.12 | 16 | -1.12 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.92 | 9 | +0.08 | 5.88 | 7 | -1.12 | 7.74 | 6 | -1.74 |
| Home | 10 | 21.48 | 22 | +0.52 | 12.44 | 13 | -0.56 | 17.99 | 22 | +4.01 |
| Away | 10 | 13.43 | 12 | -1.43 | 14.76 | 10 | +4.76 | 12.84 | 14 | +1.16 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | Spurs (H) | 1-1 | 0.75 | 1.66 | 0.74 | 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | Premier League | Fulham (A) | 1-1 | 2.08 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | Premier League | Man City (H) | 0-1 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 1.38 | 0 | D |
| 6 Sep | Premier League | Everton (A) | 2-2 | 0.84 | 1.07 | 1.17 | 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | Premier League | Ipswich (H) | 5-2 | 4.42 | 0.88 | 2.70 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | Premier League | Hull (A) | 2-0 | 2.19 | 0.99 | 2.14 | 0 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 0-3 | 1.49 | 1.25 | 1.54 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Premier League | Forest (H) | 3-2 | 3.87 | 1.67 | 2.36 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 0-0 | 0.79 | 1.41 | 0.90 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Premier League | Liverpool (H) | 3-2 | 3.22 | 1.14 | 2.44 | 3 | W |
| 27 Apr | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 2-1 | 1.22 | 1.36 | 1.27 | 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | Chelsea (A) | 0-1 | 0.32 | 1.71 | 0.40 | 3 | L |
| 13 Apr | Premier League | Leeds (H) | 1-2 | 2.06 | 2.73 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 20 Mar | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 2-2 | 2.14 | 1.96 | 1.50 | 1 | W |
| 15 Mar | Premier League | Villa (H) | 3-1 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.72 | 3 | W |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Newcastle (A) | 2-1 | 1.31 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 0 | L |
| 1 Mar | Premier League | Palace (H) | 2-1 | 2.21 | 0.62 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 23 Feb | Premier League | Everton (A) | 0-1 | 1.41 | 0.86 | 1.76 | 3 | W |
| 10 Feb | Premier League | West Ham (A) | 1-1 | 0.86 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 1 | L |
| 7 Feb | Premier League | Spurs (H) | 2-0 | 1.66 | 0.85 | 1.94 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casemiro | midfielder | 12 | 1031 | 1.48 | 4 | +2.52 | 0.13 |
| Benjamin Sesko | attacker | 15 | 647 | 4.67 | 7 | +2.33 | 0.65 |
| Matheus Cunha | attacker | 18 | 1514 | 3.35 | 5 | +1.65 | 0.20 |
| Bruno Fernandes | midfielder | 20 | 1800 | 6.23 | 7 | +0.77 | 0.31 |
| Kobbie Mainoo | midfielder | 19 | 1603 | 0.70 | 1 | +0.30 | 0.04 |
| Luke Shaw | defender | 19 | 1564 | 0.82 | 1 | +0.18 | 0.05 |
| Patrick Dorgu | defender | 9 | 284 | 1.49 | 1 | -0.49 | 0.47 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | defender | 12 | 633 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.08 |
| Leny Yoro | defender | 13 | 677 | 0.65 | 0 | -0.65 | 0.09 |
| Youri Tielemans | midfielder | 6 | 463 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.14 |
| Harry Maguire | defender | 18 | 1581 | 0.86 | 0 | -0.86 | 0.05 |
| Diogo Dalot | defender | 18 | 1320 | 0.99 | 0 | -0.99 | 0.07 |
| Marcus Rashford | attacker | 6 | 355 | 1.06 | 0 | -1.06 | 0.27 |
| Joshua Zirkzee | attacker | 13 | 184 | 1.31 | 0 | -1.31 | 0.64 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | attacker | 20 | 1529 | 7.32 | 6 | -1.32 | 0.43 |
| Amad Diallo | attacker | 15 | 930 | 1.65 | 0 | -1.65 | 0.16 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |