Yes, Leeds have taken 30 points over their last 20 Premier League games, 3.24 more than the 26.76 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Leeds create 1.53 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 30.63 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 4.63 fewer than that xG would expect.
Leeds allow 1.65 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 33.05 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 14.05 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has the most expected goals (xG) for Leeds over their last 20 Premier League games, 9.28 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Lukas Nmecha is next with 3.21 xG.
Leeds have taken 3.2 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: -4.6 goals against their xG, and +14.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 30.63 | 26 | -4.63 | 33.05 | 19 | +14.05 | 26.76 | 30 | +3.24 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.54 | 13 | -0.54 | 17.06 | 10 | +7.06 | 12.21 | 16 | +3.79 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.19 | 7 | -0.19 | 8.35 | 5 | +3.35 | 6.31 | 6 | -0.31 |
| Home | 10 | 16.42 | 15 | -1.42 | 12.94 | 6 | +6.94 | 16.10 | 18 | +1.90 |
| Away | 10 | 14.21 | 11 | -3.21 | 20.11 | 13 | +7.11 | 10.66 | 12 | +1.34 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | Arsenal (A) | 2-1 | 0.72 | 2.13 | 0.53 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Premier League | Palace (H) | 0-0 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | Premier League | Newcastle (H) | 4-1 | 1.90 | 0.79 | 2.12 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 1-1 | 2.04 | 2.39 | 1.21 | 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 1-1 | 1.11 | 1.89 | 0.89 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Premier League | Forest (A) | 0-1 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.32 | 3 | D |
| 24 May | Premier League | West Ham (A) | 3-0 | 1.77 | 2.84 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Premier League | Brighton (H) | 1-0 | 0.40 | 2.80 | 0.20 | 3 | L |
| 11 May | Premier League | Spurs (A) | 1-1 | 1.50 | 1.81 | 1.19 | 1 | L |
| 1 May | Premier League | Burnley (H) | 3-1 | 1.93 | 0.51 | 2.34 | 3 | W |
| 22 Apr | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 2-2 | 1.30 | 1.96 | 0.97 | 1 | L |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | Wolves (H) | 3-0 | 3.24 | 0.59 | 2.69 | 3 | W |
| 13 Apr | Premier League | Man Utd (A) | 1-2 | 2.73 | 2.06 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 0-0 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 1.53 | 1 | D |
| 15 Mar | Premier League | Palace (A) | 0-0 | 1.26 | 0.86 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| 3 Mar | Premier League | Sunderland (H) | 0-1 | 1.31 | 0.98 | 1.61 | 0 | W |
| 28 Feb | Premier League | Man City (H) | 0-1 | 1.99 | 2.20 | 1.28 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Villa (A) | 1-1 | 0.90 | 1.79 | 0.79 | 1 | L |
| 10 Feb | Premier League | Chelsea (A) | 2-2 | 1.24 | 3.52 | 0.39 | 1 | L |
| 6 Feb | Premier League | Forest (H) | 3-1 | 2.39 | 1.55 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Okafor | attacker | 13 | 782 | 2.56 | 7 | +4.44 | 0.29 |
| Anton Stach | midfielder | 14 | 1217 | 1.68 | 3 | +1.32 | 0.12 |
| Sean Longstaff | midfielder | 11 | 98 | 0.34 | 1 | +0.66 | 0.31 |
| Joe Rodon | defender | 15 | 1156 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.03 |
| James Justin | defender | 20 | 1770 | 1.77 | 2 | +0.23 | 0.09 |
| Jayden Bogle | defender | 18 | 1413 | 2.32 | 2 | -0.32 | 0.15 |
| Daniel James | attacker | 12 | 253 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.19 |
| Tarik Muharemović | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.10 |
| Jaka Bijol | defender | 17 | 1076 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.07 |
| Pascal Struijk | defender | 12 | 1039 | 0.84 | 0 | -0.84 | 0.07 |
| Ethan Ampadu | midfielder | 20 | 1800 | 0.92 | 0 | -0.92 | 0.05 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | attacker | 19 | 1660 | 9.28 | 8 | -1.28 | 0.50 |
| Ao Tanaka | midfielder | 13 | 902 | 1.52 | 0 | -1.52 | 0.15 |
| Brenden Aaronson | midfielder | 20 | 1189 | 2.12 | 0 | -2.12 | 0.16 |
| Lukas Nmecha | attacker | 17 | 541 | 3.21 | 1 | -2.21 | 0.53 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |