Yes, Man City have taken 49 points over their last 20 Premier League games, 11.73 more than the 37.27 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Man City create 2.07 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 41.46 in all, and have scored 44 goals from those chances, 2.54 more than that xG would expect.
Man City allow 1.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 24.50 in all, and have conceded 17 goals from those chances, 7.50 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Erling Haaland has the most expected goals (xG) for Man City over their last 20 Premier League games, 10.77 xG in 17 appearances, and has scored 13 goals; Nico O'Reilly is next with 4.21 xG.
Man City have taken 11.7 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +2.5 goals against their xG, and +7.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 41.46 | 44 | +2.54 | 24.50 | 17 | +7.50 | 37.27 | 49 | +11.73 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 18.91 | 24 | +5.09 | 12.07 | 8 | +4.07 | 17.64 | 25 | +7.36 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.95 | 14 | +5.05 | 6.23 | 4 | +2.23 | 8.48 | 15 | +6.52 |
| Home | 10 | 20.57 | 24 | +3.43 | 12.39 | 10 | +2.39 | 18.68 | 25 | +6.32 |
| Away | 10 | 20.89 | 20 | -0.89 | 12.11 | 7 | +5.11 | 18.59 | 24 | +5.41 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Premier League | Liverpool (A) | 0-3 | 1.06 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | Premier League | Sunderland (H) | 5-3 | 2.57 | 2.79 | 1.30 | 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | Premier League | Man Utd (A) | 0-1 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 1.27 | 3 | D |
| 5 Sep | Premier League | Coventry (H) | 1-0 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 2.14 | 3 | W |
| 28 Aug | Premier League | Palace (A) | 1-4 | 2.67 | 0.59 | 2.56 | 3 | W |
| 23 Aug | Premier League | B'mouth (H) | 2-1 | 2.13 | 0.57 | 2.39 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Villa (H) | 1-2 | 1.32 | 1.97 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 19 May | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 1-1 | 1.69 | 2.03 | 1.19 | 1 | L |
| 13 May | Premier League | Palace (H) | 3-0 | 1.52 | 0.92 | 1.80 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Premier League | Brentford (H) | 3-0 | 3.30 | 0.35 | 2.79 | 3 | W |
| 4 May | Premier League | Everton (A) | 3-3 | 1.86 | 2.10 | 1.26 | 1 | L |
| 22 Apr | Premier League | Burnley (A) | 0-1 | 3.06 | 0.89 | 2.52 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Premier League | Arsenal (H) | 2-1 | 1.76 | 1.38 | 1.63 | 3 | W |
| 12 Apr | Premier League | Chelsea (A) | 0-3 | 2.03 | 1.12 | 1.96 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Premier League | West Ham (A) | 1-1 | 2.81 | 0.24 | 2.77 | 1 | W |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Forest (H) | 2-2 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 2.30 | 1 | W |
| 28 Feb | Premier League | Leeds (A) | 0-1 | 2.20 | 1.99 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Newcastle (H) | 2-1 | 1.86 | 0.85 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| 11 Feb | Premier League | Fulham (H) | 3-0 | 1.59 | 1.77 | 1.28 | 3 | L |
| 8 Feb | Premier League | Liverpool (A) | 1-2 | 2.74 | 1.05 | 2.33 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémy Doku | attacker | 12 | 647 | 1.66 | 5 | +3.34 | 0.23 |
| Antoine Semenyo | attacker | 20 | 1674 | 4.06 | 7 | +2.94 | 0.22 |
| Erling Haaland | attacker | 17 | 1476 | 10.77 | 13 | +2.23 | 0.66 |
| Rayan Cherki | midfielder | 20 | 1154 | 3.87 | 5 | +1.13 | 0.30 |
| Josko Gvardiol | defender | 8 | 529 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.07 |
| Enzo Fernández | midfielder | 4 | 328 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.14 |
| Marc Guéhi | defender | 19 | 1710 | 1.93 | 2 | +0.07 | 0.10 |
| Savinho | attacker | 9 | 286 | 0.94 | 1 | +0.06 | 0.30 |
| Omar Marmoush | attacker | 9 | 417 | 2.04 | 2 | -0.04 | 0.44 |
| Nico O'Reilly | defender | 16 | 1175 | 4.21 | 4 | -0.21 | 0.32 |
| Rodri | midfielder | 9 | 789 | 1.30 | 1 | -0.30 | 0.15 |
| Bernardo Silva | midfielder | 14 | 1127 | 2.49 | 2 | -0.49 | 0.20 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | defender | 14 | 1047 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.05 |
| Nathan Aké | defender | 6 | 211 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.25 |
| Tijjani Reijnders | midfielder | 5 | 202 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.28 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | defender | 10 | 691 | 0.86 | 0 | -0.86 | 0.11 |
| Phil Foden | midfielder | 15 | 656 | 2.18 | 0 | -2.18 | 0.30 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |