How much xG Villa create and concede, and who gets the best chances.
Updated 8 November 2026, after the last game
Villa create 1.37 expected goals per game in the Premier League in 2026/2027, the 9th fewest of the 20 clubs and below the league average of 1.48, across 10 league games, while Brighton & Hove Albion create the most with 1.97.
Nicolas Jackson has created the most expected goals for Villa in 2026/2027, 4.00 in 14 appearances, 0.29 a game, ahead of Emiliano Buendía with 3.00 and John McGinn with 3.00, across all competitions.
Villa create more expected goals at home, 1.75 a game in their last 10 home games against 1.72 in their last 10 away.
Villa created 3.10 expected goals at home to Fenerbahçe on 14 October, their most in a game in 2026/2027, against an average of 1.70 across their 16 games, and their fewest was 0.33 away at Brighton on 23 August.
| Player | Apps | Expected Goals | Per game | Games with 0+ | Games with 0+ | Games with 1+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson | 14 | 4 | 0.29 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Emiliano Buendía | 14 | 3 | 0.21 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| John McGinn | 16 | 3 | 0.19 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Johan Manzambi | 10 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Brian Madjo | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Leon Goretzka | 8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tammy Abraham | 10 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Victor Lindelöf | 14 | 1 | 0.07 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ross Barkley | 16 | 1 | 0.06 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Bizot | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamare Bogarde | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matteo Ruggeri | 5 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrone Mings | 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 9 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Maatsen | 10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Lawrence Hemmings | 10 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pau Torres | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matty Cash | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| João Gomes | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boubacar Kamara | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zion Suzuki | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alysson | 15 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Date | Opponent | Competition | Score | Villa | Opponent | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Man Utd (A) | Premier League | 4-4 | 2.94 | 3.21 | 6.15 |
| 3 Nov 2026 | Barcelona (A) | Champions League | 3-0 | 0.86 | 2.24 | 3.10 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Fulham (H) | Premier League | 1-1 | 1.80 | 2.86 | 4.66 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | B'mouth (A) | Carabao Cup | 3-0 | 1.94 | 2.85 | 4.79 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Man City (H) | Premier League | 2-1 | 0.66 | 1.79 | 2.45 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Viking (H) | Champions League | 3-1 | 2.95 | 0.78 | 3.73 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Newcastle (A) | Premier League | 0-1 | 1.72 | 1.30 | 3.02 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Fenerbahçe (H) | Champions League | 6-0 | 3.10 | 1.45 | 4.55 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Brentford (H) | Premier League | 2-2 | 1.96 | 1.46 | 3.42 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Spurs (A) | Premier League | 2-3 | 1.53 | 1.45 | 2.98 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Coventry (A) | Carabao Cup | 1-3 | 2.20 | 0.90 | 3.10 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Forest (H) | Premier League | 1-2 | 1.06 | 2.27 | 3.33 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Club Brugge (A) | Champions League | 2-3 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 4.05 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Hull (A) | Premier League | 0-0 | 1.31 | 0.70 | 2.01 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Arsenal (H) | Premier League | 0-1 | 0.43 | 1.25 | 1.68 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Brighton (A) | Premier League | 4-0 | 0.33 | 3.19 | 3.52 |
| Line | Games over | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villa expected goals | Over 1.00 | 8 of 10 | 80% |
| Villa expected goals | Over 1.50 | 8 of 10 | 80% |
| Villa expected goals | Over 2.00 | 3 of 10 | 30% |
| Villa expected goals | Over 2.50 | 3 of 10 | 30% |
| Villa expected goals | Over 3.00 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 1.00 | 9 of 10 | 90% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 1.50 | 5 of 10 | 50% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 2.00 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 2.50 | 3 of 10 | 30% |
| Opponent expected goals | Over 3.00 | 1 of 10 | 10% |
| Total expected goals | Over 3.00 | 8 of 10 | 80% |
| Total expected goals | Over 3.50 | 5 of 10 | 50% |
| Total expected goals | Over 4.00 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Total expected goals | Over 4.50 | 4 of 10 | 40% |
| Total expected goals | Over 5.00 | 1 of 10 | 10% |