No, Brentford have taken 27 points over their last 20 Premier League games, within 2.07 of the 29.07 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Brentford create 1.68 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 33.50 in all, and have scored 31 goals from those chances, 2.50 fewer than that xG would expect.
Brentford allow 1.56 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 31.24 in all, and have conceded 26 goals from those chances, 5.24 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Igor Thiago has the most expected goals (xG) for Brentford over their last 20 Premier League games, 9.74 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Kevin Schade is next with 5.97 xG.
Brentford's results and their chances agree, within 2.1 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 33.50 | 31 | -2.50 | 31.24 | 26 | +5.24 | 29.07 | 27 | -2.07 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 16.75 | 18 | +1.25 | 17.75 | 12 | +5.75 | 13.39 | 15 | +1.61 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.38 | 9 | +1.62 | 8.24 | 6 | +2.24 | 6.44 | 7 | +0.56 |
| Home | 10 | 21.02 | 17 | -4.02 | 12.74 | 10 | +2.74 | 18.51 | 15 | -3.51 |
| Away | 10 | 12.48 | 14 | +1.52 | 18.50 | 16 | +2.50 | 10.56 | 12 | +1.44 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | Villa (A) | 2-2 | 1.46 | 1.96 | 1.08 | 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | Premier League | Chelsea (H) | 3-0 | 2.13 | 0.89 | 2.17 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 2-2 | 0.53 | 1.88 | 0.49 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Premier League | Sunderland (H) | 1-1 | 1.37 | 2.40 | 0.81 | 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | Premier League | Leeds (A) | 1-1 | 1.89 | 1.11 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | Premier League | Spurs (H) | 3-0 | 3.87 | 0.59 | 2.76 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Liverpool (A) | 1-1 | 1.38 | 2.81 | 0.66 | 1 | L |
| 17 May | Premier League | Palace (H) | 2-2 | 1.90 | 1.79 | 1.46 | 1 | W |
| 9 May | Premier League | Man City (A) | 3-0 | 0.35 | 3.30 | 0.12 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Premier League | West Ham (H) | 3-0 | 1.87 | 1.02 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 27 Apr | Premier League | Man Utd (A) | 2-1 | 1.36 | 1.22 | 1.46 | 0 | W |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | Fulham (H) | 0-0 | 1.72 | 0.81 | 2.01 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Premier League | Everton (H) | 2-2 | 2.58 | 1.47 | 2.02 | 1 | W |
| 21 Mar | Premier League | Leeds (A) | 0-0 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 1.06 | 1 | D |
| 16 Mar | Premier League | Wolves (H) | 2-2 | 2.19 | 1.63 | 1.72 | 1 | W |
| 3 Mar | Premier League | B'mouth (A) | 0-0 | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.69 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | Premier League | Burnley (A) | 3-4 | 2.61 | 1.13 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Brighton (H) | 0-2 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.75 | 0 | W |
| 12 Feb | Premier League | Arsenal (H) | 1-1 | 1.61 | 0.92 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 7 Feb | Premier League | Newcastle (A) | 2-3 | 1.87 | 2.91 | 0.88 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitaly Janelt | midfielder | 12 | 948 | 0.58 | 3 | +2.42 | 0.05 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | midfielder | 18 | 1062 | 1.45 | 3 | +1.55 | 0.12 |
| Yegor Yarmolyuk | midfielder | 19 | 1176 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.02 |
| Michael Kayode | defender | 19 | 1558 | 1.40 | 2 | +0.60 | 0.08 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | defender | 15 | 1160 | 0.48 | 1 | +0.52 | 0.04 |
| Jaidon Anthony | attacker | 6 | 354 | 1.08 | 1 | -0.08 | 0.27 |
| Mathias Jensen | midfielder | 16 | 1313 | 1.13 | 1 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | midfielder | 20 | 1505 | 2.75 | 2 | -0.75 | 0.16 |
| Kevin Schade | attacker | 18 | 1391 | 5.97 | 5 | -0.97 | 0.39 |
| Dango Ouattara | attacker | 20 | 1293 | 4.02 | 3 | -1.02 | 0.28 |
| Nathan Collins | defender | 14 | 1142 | 1.24 | 0 | -1.24 | 0.10 |
| Sepp van den Berg | defender | 13 | 1088 | 2.00 | 0 | -2.00 | 0.17 |
| Igor Thiago | attacker | 20 | 1793 | 9.74 | 7 | -2.74 | 0.49 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |