No, Chelsea have taken 22 points over their last 20 Premier League games, 7.22 fewer than the 29.22 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Chelsea create 1.63 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 32.50 in all, and have scored 31 goals from those chances, 1.50 fewer than that xG would expect.
Chelsea allow 1.40 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 28.09 in all, and have conceded 38 goals from those chances, 9.91 more than that xGA would expect.
João Pedro has the most expected goals (xG) for Chelsea over their last 20 Premier League games, 9.97 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 11 goals; Cole Palmer is next with 8.44 xG.
Chelsea have taken 7.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -1.5 goals against their xG, and -9.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 32.50 | 31 | -1.50 | 28.09 | 38 | -9.91 | 29.22 | 22 | -7.22 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.57 | 20 | +6.43 | 15.37 | 20 | -4.63 | 12.13 | 14 | +1.87 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.92 | 12 | +5.08 | 8.10 | 11 | -2.90 | 5.93 | 7 | +1.07 |
| Home | 10 | 19.51 | 17 | -2.51 | 12.59 | 18 | -5.41 | 17.53 | 12 | -5.53 |
| Away | 10 | 12.99 | 14 | +1.01 | 15.50 | 20 | -4.50 | 11.69 | 10 | -1.69 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | B'mouth (H) | 5-1 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 3 | W |
| 18 Sep | Premier League | Brentford (A) | 3-0 | 0.89 | 2.13 | 0.63 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Premier League | Hull (H) | 2-2 | 1.08 | 1.39 | 1.14 | 1 | L |
| 6 Sep | Premier League | Arsenal (A) | 2-1 | 0.50 | 2.27 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Premier League | Brighton (H) | 4-3 | 3.36 | 1.26 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 24 Aug | Premier League | Fulham (A) | 2-3 | 1.92 | 1.51 | 1.64 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 2-1 | 0.81 | 1.81 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 19 May | Premier League | Spurs (H) | 2-1 | 0.90 | 1.36 | 1.02 | 3 | L |
| 9 May | Premier League | Liverpool (A) | 1-1 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 1.12 | 1 | D |
| 4 May | Premier League | Forest (H) | 1-3 | 2.60 | 2.02 | 1.71 | 0 | W |
| 21 Apr | Premier League | Brighton (A) | 3-0 | 0.62 | 2.03 | 0.50 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | Man Utd (H) | 0-1 | 1.71 | 0.32 | 2.38 | 0 | W |
| 12 Apr | Premier League | Man City (H) | 0-3 | 1.12 | 2.03 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Premier League | Everton (A) | 3-0 | 0.77 | 1.26 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Premier League | Newcastle (H) | 0-1 | 1.94 | 0.85 | 2.10 | 0 | W |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Villa (A) | 1-4 | 3.03 | 1.05 | 2.43 | 3 | W |
| 1 Mar | Premier League | Arsenal (A) | 2-1 | 1.15 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Burnley (H) | 1-1 | 2.19 | 1.07 | 2.08 | 1 | W |
| 10 Feb | Premier League | Leeds (H) | 2-2 | 3.52 | 1.24 | 2.47 | 1 | W |
| 7 Feb | Premier League | Wolves (A) | 1-3 | 2.88 | 1.18 | 2.31 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers | midfielder | 6 | 523 | 1.39 | 4 | +2.61 | 0.24 |
| João Pedro | attacker | 16 | 1371 | 9.97 | 11 | +1.03 | 0.65 |
| Andrey Santos | midfielder | 10 | 618 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.08 |
| Roméo Lavia | midfielder | 13 | 553 | 0.90 | 1 | +0.10 | 0.15 |
| Enzo Fernández | midfielder | 14 | 1178 | 1.91 | 2 | +0.09 | 0.15 |
| Cole Palmer | midfielder | 19 | 1647 | 8.44 | 8 | -0.44 | 0.46 |
| Marc Cucurella | defender | 12 | 957 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.05 |
| Wesley Fofana | defender | 16 | 1189 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.04 |
| Reece James | defender | 10 | 715 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.09 |
| Pedro Neto | attacker | 16 | 1187 | 1.90 | 1 | -0.90 | 0.14 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | attacker | 9 | 399 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.16 | 0.26 |
| Liam Delap | attacker | 13 | 411 | 1.74 | 0 | -1.74 | 0.38 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |