No, Brighton have taken 35 points over their last 20 Premier League games, within 1.68 of the 33.32 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Brighton create 1.67 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 33.32 in all, and have scored 36 goals from those chances, 2.68 more than that xG would expect.
Brighton allow 1.18 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Premier League games, 23.54 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 4.54 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Jack Hinshelwood has the most expected goals (xG) for Brighton over their last 20 Premier League games, 5.22 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Danny Welbeck is next with 4.44 xG.
Brighton's results and their chances agree, within 1.7 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 33.32 | 36 | +2.68 | 23.54 | 19 | +4.54 | 33.32 | 35 | +1.68 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 19.43 | 22 | +2.57 | 14.17 | 12 | +2.17 | 16.92 | 16 | -0.92 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.77 | 14 | +5.23 | 9.36 | 5 | +4.36 | 6.81 | 10 | +3.19 |
| Home | 10 | 17.57 | 18 | +0.43 | 9.52 | 8 | +1.52 | 18.56 | 19 | +0.44 |
| Away | 10 | 15.75 | 18 | +2.25 | 14.02 | 11 | +3.02 | 14.76 | 16 | +1.24 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 0-2 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.36 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Premier League | Arsenal (H) | 3-0 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | Premier League | Coventry (A) | 0-5 | 2.53 | 1.50 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Premier League | Leeds (H) | 1-1 | 2.39 | 2.04 | 1.59 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Premier League | Chelsea (A) | 4-3 | 1.26 | 3.36 | 0.43 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | Premier League | Villa (H) | 4-0 | 3.19 | 0.33 | 2.79 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Premier League | Man Utd (H) | 0-3 | 1.25 | 1.49 | 1.21 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Premier League | Leeds (A) | 1-0 | 2.80 | 0.40 | 2.69 | 0 | W |
| 9 May | Premier League | Wolves (H) | 3-0 | 1.93 | 0.34 | 2.47 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Premier League | Newcastle (A) | 3-1 | 1.49 | 2.25 | 0.95 | 0 | L |
| 21 Apr | Premier League | Chelsea (H) | 3-0 | 2.03 | 0.62 | 2.31 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | Premier League | Spurs (A) | 2-2 | 0.86 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | Premier League | Burnley (A) | 0-2 | 2.51 | 0.65 | 2.48 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Premier League | Liverpool (H) | 2-1 | 2.28 | 0.87 | 2.25 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Premier League | Sunderland (A) | 0-1 | 1.52 | 1.01 | 1.73 | 3 | W |
| 4 Mar | Premier League | Arsenal (H) | 0-1 | 0.98 | 0.46 | 1.78 | 0 | W |
| 1 Mar | Premier League | Forest (H) | 2-1 | 1.16 | 0.85 | 1.60 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Premier League | Brentford (A) | 0-2 | 1.22 | 1.78 | 1.02 | 3 | L |
| 11 Feb | Premier League | Villa (A) | 1-0 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 8 Feb | Premier League | Palace (H) | 0-1 | 0.76 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankuba Minteh | attacker | 12 | 785 | 0.90 | 2 | +1.10 | 0.10 |
| Mats Wieffer | defender | 12 | 885 | 0.91 | 2 | +1.09 | 0.09 |
| Lewis Dunk | defender | 15 | 1202 | 1.03 | 2 | +0.97 | 0.08 |
| Malick Yalcouyé | midfielder | 6 | 260 | 1.21 | 2 | +0.79 | 0.42 |
| Danny Welbeck | attacker | 14 | 910 | 4.44 | 5 | +0.56 | 0.44 |
| Chema Andrés | midfielder | 3 | 200 | 0.48 | 1 | +0.52 | 0.21 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | defender | 16 | 854 | 1.71 | 2 | +0.29 | 0.18 |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | defender | 19 | 1684 | 0.84 | 1 | +0.16 | 0.04 |
| Luka Vuskovic | defender | 6 | 528 | 0.99 | 1 | +0.01 | 0.17 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas | attacker | 13 | 566 | 2.08 | 2 | -0.08 | 0.33 |
| Yasin Ayari | midfielder | 13 | 655 | 1.16 | 1 | -0.16 | 0.16 |
| Georginio Rutter | attacker | 13 | 463 | 1.18 | 1 | -0.18 | 0.23 |
| Jack Hinshelwood | midfielder | 15 | 1154 | 5.22 | 5 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| Pascal Groß | midfielder | 20 | 1800 | 3.22 | 3 | -0.22 | 0.16 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | defender | 13 | 1141 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.06 |
| Kaoru Mitoma | attacker | 11 | 706 | 1.85 | 1 | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| Diego Gómez | midfielder | 17 | 1235 | 3.11 | 2 | -1.11 | 0.23 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 6.8 | 5 | 10.9 | 18 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 11.2 | 10 | 5.3 | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Hull City | 6 | 6.5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 6 | 8.8 | 15 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 6 | 7.5 | 10 | 11.6 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 13.8 | 12 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Everton | 6 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.4 | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 6 | 7.9 | 8 | 9.1 | 5 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 7.7 | 9 | 9.9 | 12 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Brentford | 6 | 11.2 | 12 | 8.8 | 6 | 9.2 | 10 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 10.7 | 11 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 6 | 10.5 | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Aston Villa | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | 10.3 | 11 | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Manchester United | 6 | 11.1 | 9 | 6.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 6 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10.1 | 5 | 7.7 | 8 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 6.9 | 3 | 9.1 | 9 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 10.3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9.1 | 4 | -5.1 |
| 19 | Fulham | 6 | 9.7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 2 | -6 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 8.7 | 7 | 7.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | -6.2 |