No, Burnley have taken 8 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 3.85 fewer than the 11.85 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Burnley create 1.34 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 13.39 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 1.61 more than that xG would expect.
Burnley allow 1.63 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 16.34 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 2.66 more than that xGA would expect.
Zeki Amdouni has the most expected goals (xG) for Burnley over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 1.88 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Largie Ramazani is next with 1.66 xG.
Burnley have taken 3.9 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: +1.6 goals against their xG, and -2.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 13.39 | 15 | +1.61 | 16.34 | 19 | -2.66 | 11.85 | 8 | -3.85 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.96 | 9 | +2.04 | 8.28 | 7 | +1.28 | 6.19 | 6 | -0.19 |
| Home | 5 | 6.31 | 7 | +0.69 | 7.72 | 8 | -0.28 | 5.74 | 4 | -1.74 |
| Away | 5 | 7.08 | 8 | +0.92 | 8.62 | 11 | -2.38 | 6.11 | 4 | -2.11 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Charlton (H) | 2-2 | 1.55 | 2.66 | 0.81 | 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Watford (A) | 0-4 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Derby (H) | 1-1 | 0.81 | 1.55 | 0.85 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Swansea (A) | 3-1 | 1.32 | 1.60 | 1.19 | 0 | L |
| 8 Sep | Championship | Wrexham (A) | 1-1 | 1.57 | 1.76 | 1.27 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Bristol City (H) | 1-2 | 0.31 | 1.17 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 2 Sep | Championship | M'Boro (H) | 1-1 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 1.42 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Norwich (A) | 4-1 | 1.38 | 2.53 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | Championship | WBA (A) | 3-1 | 1.10 | 2.02 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Championship | West Ham (H) | 2-2 | 2.73 | 1.55 | 2.04 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | attacker | 8 | 550 | 0.77 | 2 | +1.23 | 0.13 |
| Zeki Amdouni | attacker | 9 | 497 | 1.88 | 3 | +1.12 | 0.34 |
| Reo Hatate | midfielder | 6 | 324 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Edwards | attacker | 6 | 315 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.14 |
| Ugo Raghouber | midfielder | 8 | 462 | 0.51 | 1 | +0.49 | 0.10 |
| Largie Ramazani | attacker | 7 | 458 | 1.66 | 2 | +0.34 | 0.33 |
| Josh Laurent | midfielder | 9 | 707 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.10 |
| Aaron Ramsey | midfielder | 7 | 457 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.21 |
| Anel Ahmedhodzic | defender | 6 | 494 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.11 |
| Dastan Satpaev | attacker | 4 | 220 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.26 |
| Oliver Sonne | defender | 7 | 489 | 0.96 | 0 | -0.96 | 0.18 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |