Projected outright markets vs the bookies: win %, best odds and edge, plus group tables, the bracket and top scorers.
Updated 15 November 2026
Outrights turns the Statz model loose on the betting markets. Every projection, from the league title, top four and relegation to a World Cup group, knockout round or top scorer, is shown as a probability next to the best current bookmaker price, with edge indicators flagging where the market is behind the model. Switch between Teams and Players, compare odds across books, and bet straight from the page via integrated deeplinks. It's the cleanest view of where value sits across the season and the tournament.
| Projected finish | Club | Position now | Played | Points now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M'Boro | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 2 | Wolves | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | S'oton | 7 | 15 | 24 |
| 6 | WBA | 5 | 15 | 28 |
| 7 | Swansea | 6 | 15 | 26 |
| 8 | QPR | 8 | 15 | 24 |
| 9 | Norwich | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 10 | Stoke | 3 | 15 | 29 |
| 11 | Millwall | 16 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheff Utd | 10 | 15 | 22 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 15 | 15 | 18 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 11 | 15 | 22 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 14 | 15 | 18 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 13 | 15 | 21 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 18 | Burnley | 22 | 15 | 10 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 17 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Bolton | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 21 | Watford | 20 | 15 | 15 |
| 22 | Charlton | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 23 | Derby | 23 | 15 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 24 | 15 | 8 |
The 2026/27 Championship projected table comes from simulating every remaining fixture thousands of times with the Statz match model, after 15 games played, and averaging where each of the 24 clubs finishes; the title, top 4 and relegation percentages are the share of simulations in which each finish happens.
The title race percentage is the share of simulated 2026/27 Championship seasons in which a club finishes first: M'Boro win 39% of them on a projected 87.6 points, from 2nd place on 29 points now, and the figure moves as results come in.
M'Boro are projected to win the Championship 2026/27 even though Birmingham lead on 29 points because the simulation weighs each club's underlying performance and remaining fixtures, not only the points banked from the first 15 games, so a side playing better than its record is expected to overtake.
Charlton, Derby and Preston are projected to finish in the bottom three of the Championship 2026/27, with the three lowest average finishing places across every simulated season after 15 games; each club's exact relegation percentage sits in the Relegation market on this page.
Two Championship clubs level on points after 15 games can have different relegation chances because the model rates their underlying performance differently and their remaining fixtures differ in difficulty, so the simulated seasons drop the weaker or harder-scheduled side more often.
The 2026/27 Championship simulation reruns daily, after every matchday completes and the team strength estimates update, so all 24 clubs' percentages move with each round; the figures on this page were last updated on 15 November 2026.