Three clubs are level on 29 points at the top of the Championship after fifteen games: Birmingham City, Middlesbrough and Stoke City. Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Bromwich Albion are a point behind on 28, and six clubs sit within three points of the lead. That raises the question every fan asks at an international break: who is actually the best team in the division?
The honest answer is not the one the table gives. Only two of those five clubs have taken the points their football deserved. One has taken 11 more. And the club our own model made title favourites in August, West Ham United, are ninth.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate. We use them below to say who has played well, and the gap to real points to say who has been lucky. Every figure comes from our Championship stats, xG table and player ratings, league games only. The full team-by-team lists are in The Championship Season So Far.
After 15 games, league only. Exp is expected points
| Club | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City | 29 | 25.5 | +3.5 |
| Middlesbrough | 29 | 29.2 | -0.2 |
| Stoke City | 29 | 18.0 | +11.0 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 28 | 28.4 | -0.4 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 28 | 23.6 | +4.4 |
| Swansea City | 26 | 22.1 | +3.9 |
Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers are the only two where the points and the football match. Everyone else has had help. Birmingham City have conceded 14 goals from chances that were worth 20.5, and West Bromwich Albion 15 from 20.7. Swansea City are sixth with the most clean sheets in the division (six) but have lost four of their last five.
Southampton are seventh on 24 points because they began the season on minus four, a deduction for an incident last season. On results they have 28, level with Wolves and West Brom, from eight wins and four draws. They have conceded 15 from chances worth 22.9, so they have had help too.
Middlesbrough lead the division for possession (60.8%), shots (19.1 a game) and passes, and only Wolverhampton Wanderers allow fewer chances. Their 29 points match their 29.2 expected points almost exactly, which is why we make them the best team in the Championship so far.
The players back it up. Will Lankshear is the division's top scorer with 13 goals at 21, from chances worth 8.8, and Sebastian Berhalter has created 39 chances. Four of the 12 highest-rated players in the Championship are Boro's: Berhalter, Amario Cozier-Duberry, Lankshear and Aidan Morris, who has made more tackles than anyone (49). The one complaint is five draws in 15.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are the other side that has done it the right way. They concede the fewest shots (9.9 a game), the fewest big chances and the lowest expected goals against (0.9), and still have 18 goals against, four more than the chances they allow. If anyone has been unlucky at the back, they have.
Stoke City have 29 points from a team that has created 15.9 expected goals, the third-lowest in the division, and allowed 21.2. On those chances their goal difference would be minus 5.3. It is plus 6. They have scored 24 from chances worth 15.9, converting 14.1% of their shots (third best in the league), and kept five clean sheets. They are also the most fouling side in the Championship (13.3 a game) and have picked up two red cards.
They have won four and drawn one of their last five, so nobody at Stoke is complaining. But the gap between their points and their play, 11.0, is the widest in the division by some distance. Blackburn are next on 6.9.
None of this means Stoke will fall away. We tested the idea over 1,245 fixtures: clubs whose results ran more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Clubs running behind by the same margin gained 0.8, which is noise. A lean against the flattered is the only half that held.
In August our model simulated the season 10,000 times and made West Ham United champions in about 70% of them, on 92 points (the preview). Fifteen games in they have 23, are ninth, and have changed head coach. Nuno EspÃrito Santo was sacked after back-to-back home defeats by Southampton and West Brom, and Scott Parker was appointed on a two-and-a-half-year contract. Our table was wrong on points.
Parker knows the division. He took Fulham, Bournemouth and Burnley out of it, in 2020, 2022 and 2025, and was the Championship's manager of the season with Burnley in 2024/25. He has one point from his first two games: a 3-3 draw at Cardiff and a 2-1 defeat at Blackburn.
What he has inherited is better than the table. West Ham have the most expected goals in the Championship (2.2 a game), the most big chances created (3.9), the most corners (7.0) and the most goals (37). Their expected points, 27.3, put them third. Jarrod Bowen has seven goals and seven assists, has created more chances than anyone (47) and more big chances than anyone (13), and is the second-highest-rated player in the division (7.63). What has cost them is the other end: 23 goals against, and one point from their last four games.
It is not the biggest gap between points and play in the division, because Preston, Burnley and Cardiff are further adrift. It is the one with the best attack behind it.
Points against expected points (Exp)
| Club | Position | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 22nd | 10 | 17.5 | -7.5 |
| Preston North End | 24th | 8 | 15.6 | -7.6 |
| Cardiff City | 14th | 18 | 24.8 | -6.8 |
| Derby County | 23rd | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 |
Burnley were fifth in our August table. They have one win in 15, ten points and 22nd place, but the chances they have created and allowed say 17.5 points. Preston North End are bottom with eight, from 15.6 expected. Cardiff City are 14th with 18 points from 24.8 expected: they have had the second-highest share of possession in the league (60.1%) and the second-most expected goals in total, and Jack Moylan has taken more shots than anyone (56) for 10 goals.
Derby County are different. The chances they allow are the worst in the division (31.5 expected goals against), they have conceded 30 and kept one clean sheet. Even on expected points they would have 14.0.
Andri Gudjohnsen has 10 goals for Blackburn Rovers from chances worth 3.5, the biggest overperformance in the division, and Blackburn are 13th with 21 points from 14.1 expected. They also concede more shots than anyone (17.2 a game). Norwich City have scored 32 from chances worth 23.5, the highest conversion rate (14.5%) in the league, and have won seven and lost eight without drawing a single game.
At the other end Lincoln City (six fewer goals than their chances say), Cardiff City and Millwall (about five fewer each) have been the poorest finishers.
Lincoln City have the lowest possession in the league (37.0%), three red cards, and Freddie Draper has committed 44 fouls, 16 more than the next player (28). Watford collect the most yellow cards (2.7 a game), and Maximilian Kilman of West Ham and Ethan Galbraith of Stoke have six each. The most fouled players are Oladapo Afolayan of Blackburn (34), Leo Scienza of Southampton (33) and Joel Colwill of Cardiff (33).
For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list, and the team pages show the rest: Lincoln fouls, Watford yellow cards, Stoke fouls. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
Isaac Price of West Brom is the highest-rated player in the Championship (7.66), ahead of Bowen. Rio Cardines of Bristol City is a 20-year-old left-back with six assists and 43 chances created, second only to Bowen. The full lists are on the player stats page.
League games only
| Player | Club | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lankshear | Middlesbrough | 13 goals |
| Jack Moylan | Cardiff City | 10 goals |
| Andri Gudjohnsen | Blackburn Rovers | 10 goals |
| Jarrod Bowen | West Ham United | 7 assists |
| Rio Cardines | Bristol City | 6 assists |
| Finn Azaz | Southampton | 5 assists |
Three things to look for when the league returns. First, whether Stoke City keep finding goals from chances that are not there. Second, whether West Ham United turn the best attack in the league into wins under Parker. Third, whether Burnley find a second win. The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game.
Middlesbrough are the best team in the Championship after 15 games on the chances they create and allow: 29 points from 29.2 expected, with the most possession (60.8%) and shots (19.1 a game). Wolves are second on expected points.
Birmingham City lead the Championship on 29 points after 15 games, level with Middlesbrough and Stoke City, with Wolves and West Brom on 28. Stoke have 11.0 points more than their chances deserve, the widest gap in the league.
Will Lankshear of Middlesbrough is the Championship top scorer with 13 goals in 13 appearances. Jack Moylan of Cardiff and Andri Gudjohnsen of Blackburn have 10 each, and Jarrod Bowen of West Ham leads for assists with 7 after 15 games.
Stoke City are the most flattered Championship team, 11.0 points above expected, then Blackburn (+6.9), Southampton (+5.1 on results) and West Brom (+4.4). Our testing over 1,245 fixtures found flattered sides then won 3.2 points less often than rated.