Twelve Championship games from Friday night to Sunday lunchtime, and the scoreboard and the chance count disagreed more than usual. Bolton Wanderers produced 3.4 expected goals, 30 shots and 68 per cent of the ball against Stoke City and lost 2-1. Stoke won it from 1.0 xG.
Elsewhere Sheffield United beat Lincoln City 3-0 from 0.9 xG to 1.6, Burnley won 4-0 at Watford from 1.7 to 0.6, and Birmingham City took a 1-0 win at West Bromwich Albion on 2.5 to 1.0, a result the chances did back. This review goes through what the numbers said, where the season table flatters or short-changes a club, and what the midweek round asks of the numbers.
Expected goals (xG) adds up the quality of every chance a team creates, so a side with 2.0 xG got itself into scoring positions about twice over. The twelve games below are ordered by how far the scoreline sat from the chance count.
Ordered by how far the scoreline sat from the chance count
| Match | Score | xG | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 3-0 | 0.9-1.6 | 10-12 |
| Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 1-2 | 3.4-1.0 | 30-9 |
| Watford v Burnley | 0-4 | 0.6-1.7 | 14-17 |
| Southampton v Portsmouth | 1-0 | 0.9-1.0 | 7-15 |
| Derby County v Wrexham | 1-1 | 0.8-1.6 | 10-13 |
| Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2-1 | 1.5-1.1 | 17-10 |
| Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-0 | 1.1-0.7 | 14-12 |
| West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 0-1 | 1.0-2.5 | 14-15 |
| West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1-1 | 1.8-1.3 | 12-7 |
| Preston North End v Millwall | 0-1 | 0.7-1.3 | 12-11 |
| Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 1-1 | 1.9-1.8 | 12-13 |
| Swansea City v Norwich City | 2-1 | 1.8-0.7 | 12-11 |
Bolton Wanderers took 30 shots to Stoke's 9, made 7 big chances to 3 and had 68 per cent possession, and the afternoon still ended 1-2 at home. Stoke City's season runs the same way: 15 goals from chances worth 9.1 xG, the biggest overshoot in the division at +5.9, and 16 points against 9.6 expected, +6.4 and the largest points gap of any side. They are 4th in the table and 20th of 24 on expected goal difference.
Lincoln City created more than the side that beat them 3-0: 1.6 xG to 0.9, from 12 shots to 10. It fits a season. Lincoln have scored 7 goals in nine games from chances worth 14.1, a shortfall of 7.1 that is the largest in the Championship, and they sit 16th. Sheffield United turned 0.9 xG into three goals and are 14th on 12 points, 3.3 more than their chances earned.
Burnley scored four from 1.7 xG, which makes it a better result than a performance, although the chance count (1.7 to 0.6) did favour them. They are 22nd on 7 points and still 4.1 below their expected points. Watford, 20th, took 14 shots to Burnley's 17 and had a 0.6 xG afternoon that ended without a goal.
Swansea City lead the Championship on 20 points, 6.1 more than their chances earned. The 2-1 win over Norwich City (1.8 to 0.7) was one the numbers back, but the season total has run well ahead of the process. At the other end Cardiff City are 21st on 7 points against 15.2 expected, a gap of -8.2 that is the biggest in the league, and their 11 goals from 17.7 xG is the second-largest finishing shortfall after Lincoln's. Preston North End have 4 points from nine games against 11.6 expected.
The four biggest gaps each way, over first
| Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 16 | 9.6 | +6.4 |
| Swansea City | 20 | 13.9 | +6.1 |
| Charlton Athletic | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 |
| Southampton | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 |
| Cardiff City | 7 | 15.2 | -8.2 |
| Preston North End | 4 | 11.6 | -7.6 |
| Burnley | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 |
| Portsmouth | 8 | 11.6 | -3.6 |
Tuesday brings eight Championship games and Wednesday four. The ones that set the numbers against each other most sharply are Stoke City against Middlesbrough, the most flattered side in the division against a Middlesbrough side with 16.4 xG for and an expected goal difference of +6.1; Cardiff City against Watford, the league's biggest points shortfall against a side on an expected goal difference of -6.1; and, on Wednesday, Lincoln City at home to West Ham United, the biggest finishing shortfall against the division's best chance creators (20.5 xG, +8.0). The table shows each side's gap between points and expected points going in.
Points minus expected points for each side, going in
| Match | Home gap | Away gap |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley v Charlton Athletic | -4.1 | +4.1 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| Millwall v Swansea City | -1.2 | +6.1 |
| Cardiff City v Watford | -8.2 | -0.5 |
| Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | +1.6 | +2.6 |
| Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion | -2.4 | +3.2 |
| Birmingham City v Preston North End | -0.9 | -7.6 |
| Stoke City v Middlesbrough | +6.4 | +1.9 |
| Portsmouth v Sheffield United | -3.6 | +3.3 |
| Norwich City v Southampton | -3.0 | +3.5 |
| Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | -0.8 | -3.2 |
| Lincoln City v West Ham United | -3.5 | -0.5 |
Expected-goals gaps describe what has happened, and they are a thin guide to what happens next. We have measured both halves of the idea across 1,245 fixtures. Sides running more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Sides running behind by the same margin won 0.8 percentage points more often, which is within the noise. The sensible reading of the table above is caution about the flattered, and no particular reason to back the unlucky. Four separate xG angles we tested against match markets also came out negative, so none of this is a betting system, and nine or ten games is a small sample for any of it.
The full Championship xG table updates after every round, alongside the team stats, player xG and the standings. For the wider picture, our Championship season so far review ranks every club, and the October xG table looks at the month ahead.