8 games in, the Championship table is still short enough that a couple of results decide where a club sits and long enough that the underlying numbers have started to say something. This is the gap between the two: which sides have more points than their chances deserved, which have fewer, and what October asks of each of them.
The measure underneath it is expected points. Every shot in every game is scored for the chance it was, those chances are replayed to give each match a win, draw and loss probability, and the probabilities are turned back into points. A side on +5.2 has banked more than the football produced; -7.1 means the opposite. Swansea City lead the first list, Cardiff City the second.
Full season numbers for every club are on the Championship team stats page, and the running expected points table is at Championship xG.
Points minus expected points, biggest first
| Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City | 17 | 11.8 | +5.2 |
| Charlton Athletic | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 |
| Stoke City | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 |
| Bristol City | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 |
| Sheffield United | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 13.2 | +0.8 |
| Middlesbrough | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| West Ham United | 15 | 14.7 | +0.3 |
| Watford | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7 |
| Wrexham | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 |
| Birmingham City | 11 | 12.6 | -1.6 |
| Lincoln City | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 |
| Portsmouth | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| Southampton | 10 | 12.3 | -2.3 |
| Norwich City | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 |
| Millwall | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 |
| Derby County | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 |
| Burnley | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| Preston North End | 4 | 10.7 | -6.7 |
| Cardiff City | 7 | 14.1 | -7.1 |
Swansea City are the furthest ahead of themselves in the Championship, +5.2 points better off than the chances in their 8 games deserved. Cardiff City are the other way round at -7.1. 12 of the 24 clubs sit within two points of their expected total, which is the normal state of things this early - the names at the two ends of this table are the ones worth a second look.
Points minus expected points
| # | Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 17 | 11.8 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Charlton Athletic | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |
| 3 | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| 6 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 |
Swansea City have conceded 4.4 fewer than their defending invited. Underneath it they rank 9th of 24 on expected goal difference and face 11.2 shots a game, the 2nd fewest. A record built on the finer margins is not a fake record - finishing and goalkeeping are skills and some sides hold the line for a whole season. Here they do not keep pace: 1st on points against 9th on chances, and a month of ordinary luck closes most of that by itself.
Points minus expected points
| # | Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff City | 7 | 14.1 | -7.1 |
| 2 | Preston North End | 4 | 10.7 | -6.7 |
| 3 | Burnley | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| 4 | Derby County | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 |
| 5 | Millwall | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | Southampton | 10 | 12.3 | -2.3 |
Cardiff City have scored 6.6 fewer goals than their chances were worth. They take 18.5 shots a game, the most in the Championship, and sit 21st of 24 on points against 4th on expected goal difference. That is the honest version of the argument for them. The dishonest version would be to call the correction due, and the section at the foot of this page explains why we do not.
Goals scored minus expected goals
| Team | xG | Goals | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 8.0 | 13 | +5.0 |
| Southampton | 14.3 | 19 | +4.7 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 8.0 | 12 | +4.0 |
| West Ham United | 18.7 | 22 | +3.3 |
| Norwich City | 13.3 | 16 | +2.7 |
| … 14 teams in between … | |||
| Derby County | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| Preston North End | 10.5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 14.8 | 10 | -4.8 |
| Lincoln City | 12.6 | 7 | -5.6 |
| Cardiff City | 16.6 | 10 | -6.6 |
Stoke City have turned 8.0 expected goals into 13, converting 13.4 per cent of their shots. Cardiff City have done the reverse, 16.6 expected goals for 10 actual ones at 6.8 per cent. A 6.6-goal shortfall over 8 games is most of the reason their position looks the way it does - the chances are arriving, the finish is not.
Expected goals against minus goals conceded
| Team | xGA | Let in | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City | 10.4 | 6 | +4.4 |
| Watford | 14.0 | 10 | +4.0 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 11.7 | 8 | +3.7 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 9.9 | 7 | +2.9 |
| Charlton Athletic | 12.7 | 10 | +2.7 |
| … 14 teams in between … | |||
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7.2 | 10 | -2.8 |
| Millwall | 11.8 | 15 | -3.2 |
| Preston North End | 11.7 | 15 | -3.3 |
| Norwich City | 13.2 | 17 | -3.8 |
| Burnley | 13.0 | 17 | -4.0 |
Swansea City have conceded 6 from 10.4 expected, the biggest saving in the Championship, while facing 11.2 shots a game. Burnley have shipped 17 from 13.0 - 4.0 goals worse than the shots they gave up suggest. Goalkeeping is the loudest single variable in this column, and it is also the one that swings hardest from month to month.
Shots taken minus shots faced
| # | Team | Shots | Faced | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff City | 18.5 | 12.2 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Queens Park Rangers | 17.2 | 11.4 | +5.9 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 17.5 | 11.8 | +5.8 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16.0 | 10.4 | +5.6 |
| 5 | Portsmouth | 15.9 | 11.4 | +4.4 |
| 6 | West Ham United | 15.8 | 12.8 | +3.0 |
Cardiff City have the best shot difference in the Championship at +6.2 a game, and sit 21st on points. Shot volume is the slowest thing on this page to move: a side can stop finishing for a month, or start saving everything, but the number of shots it takes and gives up drifts rather than jumps. That is why it is the column worth reading when the results and the performances disagree.
Average opponent expected goal difference a game
| Team | Games | Home | Opponent xGD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 5 | 2 | -0.62 |
| Stoke City | 5 | 3 | -0.22 |
| Norwich City | 5 | 3 | -0.18 |
| Charlton Athletic | 5 | 2 | -0.09 |
| Millwall | 5 | 3 | -0.06 |
| Burnley | 5 | 3 | -0.05 |
| Derby County | 5 | 2 | +0.05 |
| Preston North End | 5 | 2 | +0.08 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 2 | +0.09 |
| Cardiff City | 5 | 2 | +0.10 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 3 | +0.22 |
| Swansea City | 5 | 3 | +0.31 |
Of the clubs named above, Bristol City draw the kindest October on paper - 5 games against opponents averaging -0.62 expected goal difference a game - and Swansea City the hardest at +0.31. There are 61 Championship fixtures in the month, so this is a month long enough to move a table and short enough that one bad afternoon still colours it.
Two things are true at once, and most versions of this article only print the first. The gap is real: Swansea City have had the rub of it and Cardiff City have not, and over a season those gaps usually shrink.
The second is that knowing this does not beat a betting market on its own, and we have the numbers rather than an opinion. We tested whether a side's running over-performance predicts its next one across 6,391 team-matches: the correlation is +0.007, which is nothing. We tested backing teams by how far ahead or behind their expected goals they were running over 6,359 bets: every band lost roughly the bookmaker's margin, and the over-performers actually won more often, because sides with good finishers keep having good finishers and the price already knows.
What did survive the testing was one-sided. Over 1,245 fixtures, teams whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Teams running the same distance behind beat their rating by 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the useful half of this page is the caution it throws over the top of the first table, not a tip sheet built from the bottom of it.
Expected goals is the most-discussed public number in football. If reading it off a table beat the market, it would have stopped working years ago.
Which Championship team is over-performing the most? Swansea City, on 17 points against 11.8 expected after 8 games - a gap of +5.2. Charlton Athletic are next at +4.6.
Which Championship team is under-performing the most? Cardiff City, on 7 points against 14.1 expected, a gap of -7.1. Preston North End are next at -6.7.
Who has the best underlying numbers in the Championship? West Ham United, on +0.94 expected goal difference a game, from 15.8 shots and 12.8 faced. Wolverhampton Wanderers are second at +0.76.
Does expected goals predict which teams improve? Only in one direction, and weakly. Across 1,245 fixtures we found teams running well ahead of their expected goals went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than rated, while teams running behind beat their rating by 0.8 points - small enough to ignore. Backing the bounce-back is not a strategy our own testing supports.
Which Championship team has scored the most above expected? Stoke City, 13 goals from 8.0 expected (+5.0). At the other end Cardiff City have 10 from 16.6 (-6.6).
Which Championship defence has been luckiest? Swansea City have conceded 6 goals from 10.4 expected, a saving of +4.4. Burnley are the other way, 4.0 goals worse than their expected total of 13.0.