8 games in, the League One table is still short enough that a couple of results decide where a club sits and long enough that the underlying numbers have started to say something. This is the gap between the two: which sides have more points than their chances deserved, which have fewer, and what October asks of each of them.
The measure underneath it is expected points. Every shot in every game is scored for the chance it was, those chances are replayed to give each match a win, draw and loss probability, and the probabilities are turned back into points. A side on +5.7 has banked more than the football produced; -5.5 means the opposite. Bradford City lead the first list, Wigan Athletic the second.
Full season numbers for every club are on the League One team stats page, and the running expected points table is at League One xG.
Points minus expected points, biggest first
| Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 |
| Burton Albion | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| Leyton Orient | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
| Oxford United | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| Cambridge United | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| Bromley | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| Plymouth Argyle | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 14 | 12.7 | +1.3 |
| Mansfield Town | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| Stevenage | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| Stockport County | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| Leicester City | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 |
| Blackpool | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| Huddersfield Town | 12 | 13.8 | -1.8 |
| Notts County | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| Barnsley | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| Reading | 11 | 13.9 | -2.9 |
| Luton Town | 8 | 12.2 | -4.2 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 |
| Peterborough United | 5 | 10.5 | -5.5 |
| Wigan Athletic | 4 | 9.5 | -5.5 |
Bradford City are the furthest ahead of themselves in League One, +5.7 points better off than the chances in their 8 games deserved. Wigan Athletic are the other way round at -5.5. 10 of the 24 clubs sit within two points of their expected total, which is the normal state of things this early - the names at the two ends of this table are the ones worth a second look.
Points minus expected points
| # | Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford City | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 |
| 2 | Burton Albion | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Oxford United | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
Bradford City have conceded 3.2 fewer than their defending invited. Underneath it they rank 9th of 24 on expected goal difference and face 9.0 shots a game, the fewest. A record built on the finer margins is not a fake record - finishing and goalkeeping are skills and some sides hold the line for a whole season. Here they do not keep pace: 1st on points against 9th on chances, and a month of ordinary luck closes most of that by itself.
Points minus expected points
| # | Team | Pts | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peterborough United | 5 | 10.5 | -5.5 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic | 4 | 9.5 | -5.5 |
| 3 | Doncaster Rovers | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 |
| 4 | Luton Town | 8 | 12.2 | -4.2 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| 6 | Reading | 11 | 13.9 | -2.9 |
Wigan Athletic have scored 6.1 fewer goals than their chances were worth. They take 14.7 shots a game, the 7th most in League One, and sit 24th of 24 on points against 13th on expected goal difference. That is the honest version of the argument for them. The dishonest version would be to call the correction due, and the section at the foot of this page explains why we do not.
Goals scored minus expected goals
| Team | xG | Goals | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 6.5 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Burton Albion | 7.1 | 13 | +5.9 |
| Oxford United | 7.6 | 13 | +5.4 |
| Stevenage | 7.8 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Cambridge United | 10.3 | 13 | +2.7 |
| … 14 teams in between … | |||
| Milton Keynes Dons | 11.4 | 8 | -3.4 |
| Huddersfield Town | 14.7 | 11 | -3.7 |
| Barnsley | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
| Wigan Athletic | 11.1 | 5 | -6.1 |
| Peterborough United | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |
Leyton Orient have turned 6.5 expected goals into 13, converting 17.8 per cent of their shots. Peterborough United have done the reverse, 12.1 expected goals for 4 actual ones at 3.7 per cent. An 8.1-goal shortfall over 8 games is most of the reason their position looks the way it does - the chances are arriving, the finish is not.
Expected goals against minus goals conceded
| Team | xGA | Let in | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 11.9 | 8 | +3.9 |
| Leyton Orient | 12.3 | 9 | +3.3 |
| Bradford City | 7.2 | 4 | +3.2 |
| Oxford United | 10.2 | 7 | +3.2 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 8.7 | 6 | +2.7 |
| … 14 teams in between … | |||
| Barnsley | 10.6 | 12 | -1.4 |
| Mansfield Town | 11.3 | 13 | -1.7 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 12.8 | 16 | -3.2 |
| Bromley | 14.7 | 18 | -3.3 |
| Luton Town | 7.4 | 14 | -6.6 |
AFC Wimbledon have conceded 8 from 11.9 expected, the biggest saving in League One, while facing 13.5 shots a game. Luton Town have shipped 14 from 7.4 - 6.6 goals worse than the shots they gave up suggest. Goalkeeping is the loudest single variable in this column, and it is also the one that swings hardest from month to month.
Shots taken minus shots faced
| # | Team | Shots | Faced | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 16.4 | 9.1 | +7.2 |
| 2 | Reading | 17.9 | 10.7 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town | 16.1 | 9.1 | +7.0 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 14.9 | 10.8 | +4.1 |
| 5 | Leicester City | 15.6 | 13.0 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Luton Town | 13.3 | 10.9 | +2.4 |
Stockport County have the best shot difference in League One at +7.2 a game, and sit 3rd on points. Shot volume is the slowest thing on this page to move: a side can stop finishing for a month, or start saving everything, but the number of shots it takes and gives up drifts rather than jumps. That is why it is the column worth reading when the results and the performances disagree.
Average opponent expected goal difference a game
| Team | Games | Home | Opponent xGD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading | 6 | 3 | -0.07 |
| Peterborough United | 6 | 3 | -0.02 |
| Luton Town | 6 | 3 | +0.01 |
| Cambridge United | 6 | 3 | +0.02 |
| Oxford United | 6 | 3 | +0.03 |
| Wigan Athletic | 7 | 3 | +0.04 |
| Burton Albion | 6 | 3 | +0.05 |
| Leyton Orient | 6 | 3 | +0.05 |
| Bradford City | 6 | 3 | +0.06 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 3 | +0.19 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 6 | 3 | +0.27 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 6 | 3 | +0.30 |
Of the clubs named above, Reading draw the kindest October on paper - 6 games against opponents averaging -0.07 expected goal difference a game - and Milton Keynes Dons the hardest at +0.30. There are 71 League One fixtures in the month, so this is a month long enough to move a table and short enough that one bad afternoon still colours it.
Two things are true at once, and most versions of this article only print the first. The gap is real: Bradford City have had the rub of it and Wigan Athletic have not, and over a season those gaps usually shrink.
The second is that knowing this does not beat a betting market on its own, and we have the numbers rather than an opinion. We tested whether a side's running over-performance predicts its next one across 6,391 team-matches: the correlation is +0.007, which is nothing. We tested backing teams by how far ahead or behind their expected goals they were running over 6,359 bets: every band lost roughly the bookmaker's margin, and the over-performers actually won more often, because sides with good finishers keep having good finishers and the price already knows.
What did survive the testing was one-sided. Over 1,245 fixtures, teams whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Teams running the same distance behind beat their rating by 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the useful half of this page is the caution it throws over the top of the first table, not a tip sheet built from the bottom of it.
Expected goals is the most-discussed public number in football. If reading it off a table beat the market, it would have stopped working years ago.
Which League One team is over-performing the most? Bradford City, on 15 points against 9.3 expected after 8 games - a gap of +5.7. Burton Albion are next at +3.9.
Which League One team is under-performing the most? Wigan Athletic, on 4 points against 9.5 expected, a gap of -5.5. Peterborough United are level with them at -5.5.
Who has the best underlying numbers in League One? Huddersfield Town, on +1.07 expected goal difference a game, from 16.1 shots and 9.1 faced. Reading are second at +1.00.
Does expected goals predict which teams improve? Only in one direction, and weakly. Across 1,245 fixtures we found teams running well ahead of their expected goals went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than rated, while teams running behind beat their rating by 0.8 points - small enough to ignore. Backing the bounce-back is not a strategy our own testing supports.
Which League One team has scored the most above expected? Leyton Orient, 13 goals from 6.5 expected (+6.5). At the other end Peterborough United have 4 from 12.1 (-8.1).
Which League One defence has been luckiest? AFC Wimbledon have conceded 8 goals from 11.9 expected, a saving of +3.9. Luton Town are the other way, 6.6 goals worse than their expected total of 7.4.