Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 10 October 2026, after the last game
Wigan Athletic have the biggest shortfall in the League One: 4 points from chances worth 9.8 xPts, a gap of 5.8. At the other end, Oxford United have taken 14 points from an xPts figure of 8.8, 5.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reading | 5 | 14 | 10.7 | +3.3 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 5 | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | Luton Town | 4 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Bradford City | 4 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | +2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 5 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 7 | Huddersfield Town | 4 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Notts County | 4 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | -1 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Leicester City | 4 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 | -5 | 2.5 | -7.5 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 10 | Peterborough United | 4 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 2.3 | -4.3 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday | 4 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 12 | Wycombe Wanderers | 5 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Blackpool | 4 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Stevenage | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Doncaster Rovers | 4 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 16 | Mansfield Town | 4 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | +5 | -0.4 | +5.4 | 10 | 5.4 | +4.6 |
| 17 | Burton Albion | 5 | 10 | 4.5 | +5.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | +1 | -3.1 | +4.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 4 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Wigan Athletic | 4 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 4 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 21 | Oxford United | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| 22 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 7.3 | -7.3 | +2 | -3.4 | +5.4 | 8 | 3.5 | +4.5 |
| 23 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 24 | Bromley | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -6 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| 2 | Sheffield Wednesday | 4 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | Reading | 4 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 0.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | 4 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 1.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 6 | Stockport County | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Doncaster Rovers | 4 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 9 | Barnsley | 4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 10 | Stevenage | 4 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Luton Town | 4 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic | 4 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 1 | 5.3 | -4.3 |
| 13 | Leicester City | 4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 15 | Oxford United | 4 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +4 | -1.6 | +5.6 | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| 16 | Bradford City | 5 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 10 | 4.9 | +5.1 |
| 17 | Burton Albion | 5 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 18 | Mansfield Town | 4 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | -7 | -1.7 | -5.3 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 19 | Cambridge United | 4 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +1 | -2.3 | +3.3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 5 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 9 | 12.9 | -3.9 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 21 | Leyton Orient | 4 | 8 | 3.6 | +4.4 | 1 | 5.8 | -4.8 | +7 | -2.2 | +9.2 | 8 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 22 | Blackpool | 4 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 23 | Bromley | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 24 | Notts County | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -4.1 | +2.1 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 7 | 11.5 | -4.5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | +1 | 6.9 | -5.9 | 6 | 10.8 | -4.8 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 5 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 |
| 3 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Reading | 5 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Luton Town | 5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | +5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Leicester City | 5 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | -3 | 1.6 | -4.6 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Wycombe Wanderers | 5 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 11 | Bradford City | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | +3 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Doncaster Rovers | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | -6 | -0.8 | -5.2 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 14 | Oxford United | 5 | 11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +6 | -1.5 | +7.5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 |
| 15 | Barnsley | 5 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 | -8 | -1.7 | -6.3 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Mansfield Town | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | -5 | -1.7 | -3.3 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 17 | Peterborough United | 5 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 8.2 | -5.2 | +2 | -2.3 | +4.3 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 19 | Notts County | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -4 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | -6 | -4.2 | -1.8 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
| 21 | Wigan Athletic | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 22 | Burton Albion | 5 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | -5 | -5.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 23 | Bromley | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | -7 | -5.2 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | -2 | -5.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 |
Oxford United are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2026/2027, with 15 goals from chances worth 8.7 xG, a gap of 6.3. Burton Albion are next on 5.7.
Peterborough United are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2026/2027, with 7 goals from chances worth 13.5 xG, a shortfall of 6.5. Wigan Athletic are next on 6.3.
Oxford United are the luckiest side in League One in 2026/2027, with 14 points from performances worth 8.8 xPts, 5.2 more than their chances deserved. Bradford City are next on 4.0.
Wigan Athletic are the unluckiest side in League One in 2026/2027, with 4 points from performances worth 9.8 xPts, 5.8 short of what they deserved. Milton Keynes Dons are next on 4.7.
Huddersfield Town would be top of League One in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 17.7 xPts from 18.9 xG created and 9.3 conceded across nine matches. Reading are next on 17.4.
Huddersfield Town have created the most xG in League One in 2026/2027, 18.9 from nine matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Reading are next on 18.4.
Leyton Orient and Bromley share the least xG in League One in 2026/2027, both on 7.7 from nine matches and 7.7 from eight matches against a competition average of 1.5. Burton Albion are next on 8.3.
Blackpool have conceded the most xG in League One in 2026/2027, 17.2 from eight matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Peterborough United are next on 17.1.
Stevenage have conceded the least xG in League One in 2026/2027, 7.7 from eight matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bradford City are next on 8.3.
League One teams have averaged 1.47 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 102 matches played, and have scored 1.44 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.33 xG a game in 2025/2026.
League One teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.56 a game against 1.38 away, a home advantage of +0.18, against +0.27 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 16 | 18.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 16 | 17.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Reading | 9 | 22 | 18.4 | +3.6 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | +11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 15 | 17.4 | -2.4 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 20 | 17.3 | +2.7 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | +9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | 16 | 15.8 | +0.2 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1 | 12 | 14.0 | -2.0 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 19 | 15.5 | +3.5 |
| 5 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 15 | 17.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Luton Town | 8 | 16 | 13.9 | +2.1 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 | +1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 11 | 13.9 | -2.9 |
| 7 | Bradford City | 9 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 9 | 14 | 12.7 | +1.3 | 11 | 13.1 | -2.1 | +3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 |
| 9 | Leicester City | 8 | 10 | 13.3 | -3.3 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | -4 | 1.7 | -5.7 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 |
| 10 | Stevenage | 8 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | +4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 20 | 15.5 | +4.5 | -6 | -1.6 | -4.4 | 10 | 11.9 | -1.9 |
| 12 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Peterborough United | 9 | 7 | 13.5 | -6.5 | 14 | 17.1 | -3.1 | -7 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 8 | 11.1 | -3.1 |
| 14 | Barnsley | 8 | 8 | 12.0 | -4.0 | 15 | 12.7 | +2.3 | -7 | -0.6 | -6.4 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
| 15 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | 15 | 13.0 | +2.0 | -6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 |
| 16 | Notts County | 8 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 7 | 10.1 | -3.1 |
| 17 | Blackpool | 8 | 13 | 15.5 | -2.5 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 14 | 12.6 | +1.4 | -2 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 10 | 14 | 8.3 | +5.7 | 16 | 15.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -7.0 | +5.0 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 20 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 5 | 11.3 | -6.3 | 13 | 13.1 | -0.1 | -8 | -1.8 | -6.2 | 4 | 9.8 | -5.8 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 14.1 | -4.1 | -3 | -4.6 | +1.6 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 |
| 22 | Oxford United | 7 | 15 | 8.7 | +6.3 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | +7 | -2.3 | +9.3 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 |
| 23 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | 11 | 15.7 | -4.7 | +2 | -8.0 | +10.0 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 |
| 24 | Bromley | 8 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 20 | 16.9 | +3.1 | -11 | -9.2 | -1.8 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |