Port Vale have the biggest shortfall in the League One: 42 points from chances worth 56.5 xPts, a gap of 14.5. At the other end, Lincoln City have taken 103 points from an xPts figure of 75.6, 27.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff City | 23 | 50 | 46.0 | +4.0 | 23 | 25.2 | -2.2 | +27 | 20.8 | +6.2 | 53 | 44.9 | +8.1 |
| 2 | Bolton Wanderers | 23 | 46 | 41.6 | +4.4 | 24 | 25.1 | -1.1 | +22 | 16.5 | +5.5 | 47 | 43.4 | +3.6 |
| 3 | Luton Town | 23 | 37 | 42.2 | -5.2 | 24 | 24.5 | -0.5 | +13 | 17.6 | -4.6 | 45 | 42.5 | +2.5 |
| 4 | Lincoln City | 23 | 53 | 42.3 | +10.7 | 20 | 26.4 | -6.4 | +33 | 16.0 | +17.0 | 58 | 42.2 | +15.8 |
| 5 | Wycombe Wanderers | 23 | 45 | 37.8 | +7.2 | 23 | 22.7 | +0.3 | +22 | 15.1 | +6.9 | 42 | 41.8 | +0.2 |
| 6 | Bradford City | 23 | 32 | 35.3 | -3.3 | 17 | 20.6 | -3.6 | +15 | 14.7 | +0.3 | 50 | 40.2 | +9.8 |
| 7 | Huddersfield Town | 23 | 42 | 38.3 | +3.7 | 27 | 24.6 | +2.4 | +15 | 13.7 | +1.3 | 42 | 40.0 | +2.0 |
| 8 | Stockport County | 23 | 38 | 41.5 | -3.5 | 26 | 27.9 | -1.9 | +12 | 13.7 | -1.7 | 43 | 39.3 | +3.7 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 23 | 27 | 27.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 17.9 | -4.9 | +14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 49 | 38.0 | +11.0 |
| 10 | Doncaster Rovers | 23 | 27 | 35.7 | -8.7 | 32 | 25.7 | +6.3 | -5 | 10.0 | -15.0 | 33 | 37.8 | -4.8 |
| 11 | Peterborough United | 23 | 39 | 38.0 | +1.0 | 30 | 29.3 | +0.7 | +9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 30 | 36.2 | -6.2 |
| 12 | Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 33 | 37.3 | -4.3 | 33 | 30.1 | +2.9 | +0 | 7.2 | -7.2 | 34 | 35.6 | -1.6 |
| 13 | Wigan Athletic | 23 | 24 | 29.4 | -5.4 | 17 | 24.9 | -7.9 | +7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 37 | 34.3 | +2.7 |
| 14 | Mansfield Town | 23 | 38 | 35.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 31.0 | -4.0 | +11 | 4.0 | +7.0 | 35 | 33.7 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 23 | 27 | 27.1 | -0.1 | 28 | 26.1 | +1.9 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 32 | 32.3 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 23 | 30 | 30.0 | +0.0 | 29 | 32.2 | -3.2 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 31 | 32.3 | -1.3 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 23 | 17 | 29.5 | -12.5 | 25 | 29.5 | -4.5 | -8 | 0.0 | -8.0 | 21 | 31.8 | -10.8 |
| 18 | Leyton Orient | 23 | 32 | 26.6 | +5.4 | 30 | 27.2 | +2.8 | +2 | -0.6 | +2.6 | 31 | 31.4 | -0.4 |
| 19 | Reading | 23 | 33 | 25.6 | +7.4 | 28 | 25.6 | +2.4 | +5 | 0.0 | +5.0 | 37 | 31.3 | +5.7 |
| 20 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 25 | 29.3 | -4.3 | 31 | 30.7 | +0.3 | -6 | -1.4 | -4.6 | 28 | 30.3 | -2.3 |
| 21 | Blackpool | 23 | 35 | 27.8 | +7.2 | 29 | 30.1 | -1.1 | +6 | -2.2 | +8.2 | 41 | 30.0 | +11.0 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 23 | 23 | 26.1 | -3.1 | 31 | 31.9 | -0.9 | -8 | -5.8 | -2.2 | 22 | 29.3 | -7.3 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 23 | 39 | 30.2 | +8.8 | 37 | 35.3 | +1.7 | +2 | -5.1 | +7.1 | 33 | 28.8 | +4.2 |
| 24 | Rotherham United | 23 | 24 | 27.0 | -3.0 | 32 | 32.6 | -0.6 | -8 | -5.6 | -2.4 | 27 | 27.5 | -0.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers | 23 | 24 | 34.6 | -10.6 | 28 | 26.3 | +1.7 | -4 | 8.3 | -12.3 | 28 | 36.9 | -8.9 |
| 2 | Wycombe Wanderers | 23 | 24 | 34.8 | -10.8 | 35 | 28.9 | +6.1 | -11 | 5.9 | -16.9 | 21 | 35.5 | -14.5 |
| 3 | Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 42 | 38.1 | +3.9 | 30 | 31.2 | -1.2 | +12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 39 | 34.3 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Huddersfield Town | 23 | 32 | 30.8 | +1.2 | 37 | 28.7 | +8.3 | -5 | 2.1 | -7.1 | 25 | 33.9 | -8.9 |
| 5 | Lincoln City | 23 | 36 | 29.8 | +6.2 | 21 | 26.5 | -5.5 | +15 | 3.3 | +11.7 | 45 | 33.4 | +11.6 |
| 6 | Luton Town | 23 | 31 | 33.3 | -2.3 | 32 | 30.4 | +1.6 | -1 | 2.9 | -3.9 | 29 | 33.3 | -4.3 |
| 7 | Stockport County | 23 | 33 | 29.1 | +3.9 | 32 | 27.5 | +4.5 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 34 | 32.1 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Cardiff City | 23 | 40 | 33.2 | +6.8 | 27 | 31.5 | -4.5 | +13 | 1.7 | +11.3 | 38 | 32.0 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Doncaster Rovers | 23 | 23 | 33.5 | -10.5 | 37 | 33.4 | +3.6 | -14 | 0.0 | -14.0 | 27 | 31.8 | -4.8 |
| 10 | Bradford City | 23 | 26 | 25.4 | +0.6 | 34 | 26.9 | +7.1 | -8 | -1.5 | -6.5 | 27 | 29.8 | -2.8 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 23 | 24 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 23 | 30.4 | -7.4 | +1 | -6.5 | +7.5 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 23 | 23 | 27.8 | -4.8 | 32 | 34.5 | -2.5 | -9 | -6.7 | -2.3 | 22 | 27.5 | -5.5 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 23 | 22 | 22.4 | -0.4 | 33 | 31.4 | +1.6 | -11 | -9.0 | -2.0 | 26 | 26.7 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Reading | 23 | 31 | 27.0 | +4.0 | 32 | 35.1 | -3.1 | -1 | -8.1 | +7.1 | 26 | 25.9 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Port Vale | 23 | 19 | 21.5 | -2.5 | 36 | 30.6 | +5.4 | -17 | -9.0 | -8.0 | 21 | 24.8 | -3.8 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 23 | 27 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 41 | 40.8 | +0.2 | -14 | -12.3 | -1.7 | 21 | 24.8 | -3.8 |
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 26 | 23.3 | +2.7 | 41 | 36.4 | +4.6 | -15 | -13.0 | -2.0 | 25 | 23.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Rotherham United | 23 | 17 | 21.5 | -4.5 | 39 | 33.1 | +5.9 | -22 | -11.6 | -10.4 | 14 | 23.7 | -9.7 |
| 19 | Wigan Athletic | 23 | 25 | 23.3 | +1.7 | 41 | 37.7 | +3.3 | -16 | -14.4 | -1.6 | 19 | 22.8 | -3.8 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 23 | 25 | 26.9 | -1.9 | 38 | 43.2 | -5.2 | -13 | -16.3 | +3.3 | 23 | 22.8 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 23 | 29 | 23.3 | +5.7 | 36 | 40.0 | -4.0 | -7 | -16.7 | +9.7 | 26 | 21.6 | +4.4 |
| 22 | Exeter City | 23 | 22 | 22.5 | -0.5 | 32 | 39.0 | -7.0 | -10 | -16.5 | +6.5 | 18 | 21.4 | -3.4 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 23 | 19 | 19.9 | -0.9 | 36 | 36.7 | -0.7 | -17 | -16.8 | -0.2 | 19 | 21.2 | -2.2 |
| 24 | Northampton Town | 23 | 16 | 22.5 | -6.5 | 43 | 47.4 | -4.4 | -27 | -24.9 | -2.1 | 13 | 18.6 | -5.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | +4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 2 | Luton Town | 5 | 11 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | 11 | 5.8 | +5.2 | +1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Stockport County | 5 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | +2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| 5 | Burton Albion | 5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 6 | Wycombe Wanderers | 5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 12 | 7.0 | +5.0 | -2 | 2.4 | -4.4 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Bradford City | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 |
| 8 | Doncaster Rovers | 5 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Cardiff City | 5 | 14 | 9.4 | +4.6 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | +6 | 1.6 | +4.4 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Lincoln City | 5 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +6 | 1.1 | +4.9 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
| 11 | Wigan Athletic | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 13 | Reading | 5 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | -5 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 6.4 | -5.4 |
| 14 | Blackpool | 5 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 | +4 | -0.8 | +4.8 | 12 | 6.2 | +5.8 |
| 15 | Peterborough United | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | -6 | -2.7 | -3.3 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 5 | 12 | 6.4 | +5.6 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +5 | -1.7 | +6.7 | 11 | 5.8 | +5.2 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 5 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 |
| 20 | Rotherham United | 5 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -2.9 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 21 | Exeter City | 5 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | +2 | -4.4 | +6.4 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
| 22 | Barnsley | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 | -3 | -5.2 | +2.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 14 | 12.2 | +1.8 | -9 | -7.6 | -1.4 | 0 | 3.6 | -3.6 |
| 24 | AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | -8 | -5.9 | -2.1 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
Lincoln City overperformed their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2025/2026, with 89 goals from chances worth 72.2 xG, a gap of 16.8. Barnsley were next on 14.5.
Doncaster Rovers underperformed their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2025/2026, with 50 goals from chances worth 69.2 xG, a shortfall of 19.2. Port Vale were next on 15.1.
Lincoln City were the luckiest side in League One in 2025/2026, with 103 points from performances worth 75.6 xPts, 27.4 more than their chances deserved. Cardiff City were next on 14.1.
Port Vale were the unluckiest side in League One in 2025/2026, with 42 points from performances worth 56.5 xPts, 14.5 short of what they deserved. Wycombe Wanderers were next on 14.4.
Bolton Wanderers would be top of League One in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 80.3 xPts from 76.2 xG created and 51.3 conceded across 46 matches. Wycombe Wanderers were next on 77.4.
Cardiff City created the most xG in League One in 2025/2026, 79.2 from 46 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Bolton Wanderers were next on 76.2.
Blackpool created the least xG in League One in 2025/2026, 47.7 from 46 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Rotherham United were next on 48.5.
Northampton Town conceded the most xG in League One in 2025/2026, 79.3 from 46 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Barnsley were next on 75.3.
Bradford City conceded the least xG in League One in 2025/2026, 47.5 from 46 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Stevenage were next on 49.2.
League One teams averaged 1.33 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 552 matches played, and scored 1.32 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.25 xG a game in 2024/2025.
League One teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.46 a game against 1.19 away, a home advantage of +0.27, against +0.20 in 2024/2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers | 46 | 70 | 76.2 | -6.2 | 52 | 51.3 | +0.7 | +18 | 24.8 | -6.8 | 75 | 80.3 | -5.3 |
| 2 | Wycombe Wanderers | 46 | 69 | 72.6 | -3.6 | 58 | 51.6 | +6.4 | +11 | 21.0 | -10.0 | 63 | 77.4 | -14.4 |
| 3 | Cardiff City | 46 | 90 | 79.2 | +10.8 | 50 | 56.7 | -6.7 | +40 | 22.5 | +17.5 | 91 | 76.9 | +14.1 |
| 4 | Luton Town | 46 | 68 | 75.5 | -7.5 | 56 | 55.0 | +1.0 | +12 | 20.5 | -8.5 | 74 | 75.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Lincoln City | 46 | 89 | 72.2 | +16.8 | 41 | 52.9 | -11.9 | +48 | 19.3 | +28.7 | 103 | 75.6 | +27.4 |
| 6 | Huddersfield Town | 46 | 74 | 69.1 | +4.9 | 64 | 53.3 | +10.7 | +10 | 15.8 | -5.8 | 67 | 74.0 | -7.0 |
| 7 | Stockport County | 46 | 71 | 70.7 | +0.3 | 58 | 55.3 | +2.7 | +13 | 15.3 | -2.3 | 77 | 71.4 | +5.6 |
| 8 | Bradford City | 46 | 58 | 60.7 | -2.7 | 51 | 47.5 | +3.5 | +7 | 13.2 | -6.2 | 77 | 70.0 | +7.0 |
| 9 | Plymouth Argyle | 46 | 75 | 75.4 | -0.4 | 63 | 61.3 | +1.7 | +12 | 14.1 | -2.1 | 73 | 69.9 | +3.1 |
| 10 | Doncaster Rovers | 46 | 50 | 69.2 | -19.2 | 69 | 59.1 | +9.9 | -19 | 10.1 | -29.1 | 60 | 69.6 | -9.6 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 46 | 49 | 50.2 | -1.2 | 46 | 49.2 | -3.2 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 75 | 64.7 | +10.3 |
| 12 | Mansfield Town | 46 | 62 | 58.8 | +3.2 | 50 | 61.3 | -11.3 | +12 | -2.5 | +14.5 | 65 | 61.5 | +3.5 |
| 13 | Burton Albion | 46 | 50 | 54.9 | -4.9 | 60 | 60.5 | -0.5 | -10 | -5.7 | -4.3 | 54 | 59.8 | -5.8 |
| 14 | Peterborough United | 46 | 64 | 65.0 | -1.0 | 68 | 72.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -7.6 | +3.6 | 53 | 59.0 | -6.0 |
| 15 | Reading | 46 | 64 | 52.6 | +11.4 | 60 | 60.8 | -0.8 | +4 | -8.2 | +12.2 | 63 | 57.3 | +5.7 |
| 16 | Wigan Athletic | 46 | 49 | 52.6 | -3.6 | 58 | 62.6 | -4.6 | -9 | -9.9 | +0.9 | 56 | 57.1 | -1.1 |
| 17 | Port Vale | 46 | 36 | 51.1 | -15.1 | 61 | 60.1 | +0.9 | -25 | -9.0 | -16.0 | 42 | 56.5 | -14.5 |
| 18 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 59 | 55.1 | +3.9 | 71 | 67.9 | +3.1 | -12 | -12.9 | +0.9 | 52 | 56.1 | -4.1 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 51 | 52.6 | -1.6 | 72 | 67.1 | +4.9 | -21 | -14.5 | -6.5 | 53 | 54.1 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 46 | 52 | 52.5 | -0.5 | 61 | 71.1 | -10.1 | -9 | -18.6 | +9.6 | 49 | 53.7 | -4.7 |
| 21 | Rotherham United | 46 | 41 | 48.5 | -7.5 | 71 | 65.7 | +5.3 | -30 | -17.2 | -12.8 | 41 | 51.2 | -10.2 |
| 22 | Blackpool | 46 | 54 | 47.7 | +6.3 | 65 | 66.8 | -1.8 | -11 | -19.0 | +8.0 | 60 | 51.2 | +8.8 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 46 | 68 | 53.5 | +14.5 | 73 | 75.3 | -2.3 | -5 | -21.8 | +16.8 | 59 | 50.4 | +8.6 |
| 24 | Northampton Town | 46 | 39 | 48.6 | -9.6 | 74 | 79.3 | -5.3 | -35 | -30.7 | -4.3 | 35 | 47.9 | -12.9 |